Fumiko Yamada

February 24 marked one year of the Ukraine-Russia war. A year ago, Putin’s 200,000 troops invaded Ukraine with arrogance and arrogance. The roar of the Russian tank fleet, some 35 miles long, died down within a few days. We have seen the devastation of tank fleets and the pursuit of Russian troops in various media, including social media. By miscalculating the military, Putin thought he would arrive in Kiev with his troops and vassals while eating pies. But the West, led by the US, has fueled the armed forces and people of Ukraine with arms, ammunition and logistics to sustain the war of resistance. As a result, Putin has seen some success in a year-long war. Now it is not visible where the end of this war is. There is nothing but stories of destruction, human rights abuses, war crimes and indescribable suffering of the people of the world. As a result, even if no side wins this war, the defeat of humanity is certain.

Although there is no strong reason behind this war, the worst since 1945, there is an equation between US arrogance and Russia’s security concerns. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, the United States was assured of its security and established global hegemony. When the threat of socialist imperialism ended, they became concerned with the rise of Islamic power. The United States intervened directly or indirectly in various Muslim countries including the Middle East to prevent the Islamic renaissance at that time. Some Muslim countries quarreled among themselves and supplied weapons to one side, some directly joined the war, and some indirectly intervened by giving other Western allies. Even in some places, it takes the method of preventing the rise of political power of Islam by standing the opposition political power of the respective country.

We have seen these American interventions in the Iraq-Iran war, the war of the Gulf Multinational Forces, the war in Bosnia, the thwarting of the Algerian elections in 1991, the independence of East Timor, the Sudan crisis, the Afghanistan war, etc. everywhere. Even before this time, during the Cold War, the direct or indirect intervention of the United States in conflicts in all parts of the world has its signature. In other words, part of the foreign policy of the United States is to maintain its own authority where it is necessary to start a conflict or get involved in the conflict and where it is necessary to lead the peace process, so that its interests can be fully realized everywhere. Thus, in the world of single superpower, when the Americans are busy with the Muslim world; Then China and Russia started coming out of their shells. China became busy increasing its influence in the country through trade and commerce. On the other hand, Russia is turning around after the transitional period of the 90s. Under the leadership of the authoritarian Putin, Moscow is trying to rise again geopolitically in the world court. In this situation, the United States suddenly regained its composure. Understandably, China and Russia are rapidly rising to take advantage of Washington getting stuck in the sands of Afghanistan in the name of the Makey War on Terror. In the midst of this, Joe Biden, a politician who ascended to power in the United States, checked the world geopolitical situation and hastily ended the unfinished war by withdrawing all troops from Afghanistan to save money and manpower for the next war. He followed the strategy of his predecessors to prevent the rise of Russia. Focused on expanding NATO to eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia occupied the border city of Crimea with Ukraine in 2014 to ensure the security of its borders. As a result, Ukraine’s pro-Russian President Yakunavych fell and pro-Western and pro-American Zelenovsky came to power. After being elected president, Zelenowski began pushing for NATO membership. On the other hand, the West, led by the United States, continued to urge it to join NATO. As a result, Putin feels NATO’s hot breath on his neck. Putin believes that Russia’s security is going to be under serious threat. With no opposition political forces in the country or anyone to consult with him, the headstrong and brutal autocrat Putin launched a unilateral invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year to counter the potential threat of NATO’s expansion to his country’s borders. Perhaps this is what US President Joe Biden wanted. He immediately united Western Europe against Russia and initiated an all-out cooperation effort against Russian aggression in Ukraine.

It has made it easier to wrap the world, control the economy, protect the overall interests of the US, including the arms trade. Usually all US presidents are seen to follow such foreign policy. Since the Americans do not have any major problems in their own country or because the country is relatively stable, the US leaders have been showing a tendency to occupy the leadership seat on the problems of any part of the world outside the country in order to maintain their popularity in domestic politics. As part of that, the US is leading the West Europeans in the Ukraine war. Currently, as the Islamic revolutionaries in Muslim countries have waned, the Americans have changed the slogan or excuse for their intervention in various countries from ‘war on terror’ to ‘human rights and democracy’. In the name of ‘war on terror’, the worst lie in history has invaded Iraq and Afghanistan and killed millions of innocent people including women and children. However, Hindutva terrorism in India and Jewish terrorism in Palestine are being closely condoned. That is, since the said two countries are against Muslims; Therefore, President Biden sees Hindutva and Zionist terrorism as a self-defense struggle. And despite the demands of the “democracy and human rights” watchdog, the US leadership is completely silent on the question of Egypt’s militarism, Saudi killings in Yemen, destruction in Syria, etc. That is, the philosophy of American human rights and democracy is only related to the interests of America! That is why they are continuing to cooperate with Russia in Ukraine.

Analyzing the results of last year’s war in Ukraine shows only devastation. About 1.3 million people have been displaced. Of these, 8 million have emigrated (New York Times : 02/03/2023). The number of civilian casualties is eight thousand and six. And 13 thousand 287 soldiers were killed on both sides (UN Human Rights Commission: New Horizons: 25/02/2023). Russia has been able to establish military dominance in parts of Ukraine in a year of fierce war. But the damage has been extensive. Many Russian generals were killed. At the same time, military weaknesses have been exposed. At this time, the Russian economy suffered a lot but did not collapse. Western powers thought they could contain Russia by imposing an economic embargo. But that was not possible because of the Russian economy’s reserves of food grains and raw materials to turn the wheels of technology-dependent Western industry. Russia supplied 17.5 percent of the total oil supplied to the world market in 2021, 47 percent of palladium, 16.7 percent of nickel, 13 percent of aluminum and 25 percent of potash fertilizers (First Light: 02/03/2023). On the other hand, the damage to Ukraine is more terrible. The country’s infrastructure, especially the energy infrastructure, is on the brink of collapse. On the other hand, the impact of this war in the global field is very serious. The lack of foodgrains and fuel in the world market and inflation has reached extreme levels, about 166 million people have gone below the extreme poverty line (Pratham Alo : 24/02/2023). As a result, the footsteps of famine are heard in the developing countries. On the other hand, the related countries are increasing the military expenditure to cover the cost of this war. This money is going away from common man’s rice, clothes and education and medical sector. It is known that 62 percent of the world’s total military expenditure is spent by the United States, China, India, the United Kingdom and Russia (Prothom-alo : 22/02/2023).

No signs of an end to the war in Ukraine are yet apparent. Recently, China proposed a 12-point peace proposal to end the war. Ukraine has commented that the proposal is unilateral. And because China itself has failed to condemn Russia’s aggression, the West is looking at the peace proposal with suspicion. Rather, America has warned China against supplying arms to Russia. Analysts do not think that this peace proposal can play an effective role in the work. Meanwhile, many people think that the United States wants to keep China busy by creating tension in Taiwan so that China cannot join the war with Russia. That is why it can be seen that in the last one year, the amount of provocation and war of words that the United States has given to China regarding Taiwan has never been seen before. Because the relationship between China and Russia has deepened since the start of the Ukraine war. At the G20 summit in New Delhi last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke for ten minutes while walking with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. There, Blinken urged Lavrov to withdraw all troops from Ukraine (Prothom-alo : 21/02/2023). On the other hand, Ukraine’s defense minister also claimed that peace talks with Russia could be held on the condition of withdrawing all Russian troops and returning to the 1991 borders. Already, the West has given about 4 billion dollars of military aid to Ukraine, including 3 billion dollars from the United States (previously). Again NATO has promised full cooperation against Russia. On February 20, President Biden suddenly visited Kiev and announced in a strong voice, “Russia will never win in Ukraine, never”. He has promised that the US will stand by Ukraine as long as it takes to win the war (Prothom-alo : 27/02/2023). In this situation, Russia is making all preparations to increase the intensity of the war in the coming spring. All in all, the Ukraine war has become a war of attrition. Neither side shows signs of backing down or winning.

However, the economic condition of America after Corona is not the same as before. Therefore, the Americans are not taking well the fact that President Biden’s huge amount of money is helping the war in Ukraine. Biden is said to be feeling such pressure. In this situation, it is difficult to say how long the Biden administration will be able to help Ukraine and the West to continue this war. It may also be that, ahead of the November 2024 election in the United States, Biden may suddenly try to become a hero to the Americans through some kind of negotiation or compromise. And Putin will not be able to carry the burden of this war for a long time. So Putin may respond to any compromise offer by Biden. In the past, American politics was done outside the country. That is, relying on world conflict-peace politics, the US leadership tries to draw voters towards them. So the world will have to wait until then to be freed from the terrible effects of the war in Ukraine. But if the brutality of Russian forces in Ukraine escalates in the name of “Operation Spring” or if Ukraine is on the verge of destruction, the American population will turn towards Ukraine and hatred against Russia may arise. If things go that way, President Joe Biden may take steps to increase aid to Ukraine. In that case, the end of this war may not be immediate. But by then world humanity may have reached the brink of defeat.