UPALI COORAY

Foreign minister Prof. G.L Peiris in his key note address at the function held recently to announce the release of the document ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ…-Factual analysis, Humanitarian operationƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚ by the Defense Ministry, drew specific attention to a statement made by Louis Arbor, the Chairperson of the international Crisis group; to the Johannesburg Times the other day, calling for a regime change in Sri Lanka. In fact I felt that the entire flow of the Foreign MinisterƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s address was directed to highlight the most treacherous objective of the ongoing anti-Sri Lanka campaign internationally; which is being headed by the Tamil Diaspora; aided and abetted by many stake holders such as the human rights industry, some international media organizations with vested interests, while complementary roles are being played by the so called international community and the U.N system.

The formula of regime change though not a new phenomenon has a new dimension in the current international scenario in the light of conflict ridden countries such as Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and a few others. ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Regime change mainly is a complete change of government brought about by force and to replace it with a government that supports the ideas of the sponsors of regime change. It is not a peaceful and proper change of government but a mostly violent overthrow of an incumbent government.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ 

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Justification for violent regime change has shifted over the years from stopping the spreading of communism to prevent ethnic cleansing and instilling democracy. Since 9/11, it has a new motive: the war on terrorism. One or more of these purportedly righteous objectives may not necessarily be the reason or reasons but has been used to conceal some other strategic, political or economic prerequisite necessary to correct an unfavorable imbalance as seen by the sponsors of regime change.

The present campaign against Sri LankaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s alleged war crimes, human rights violations and accountability issues take a similar course that led to foreign interference and overthrow of governments in many third world countries.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  The expectation is that a gradual process flaring up internal turmoil stimulated through measures such as international persecution of so called violators of human rights and ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ…-War criminalsƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚, imposition of economic sanctions, Trade embargos, diplomatic pressure and unsettling peaceful order through social unrest would culminate in achieving the objectives. It is difficult to rule out what we see in relation to Sri Lanka today are the initial stages of such a covert project that could gradually be accelerated. However unlike in many countries that underwent or expected to undergo regime change; Sri Lanka has been a democracy. The local elected leaders have no close similarities in demeanor to the despots and dictators under siege. All the accusations against the present regime emanates from the victory over terrorism. Why then is a democratic country which fought terrorism and won; not looked upon as an example to follow but has been indicted? It is crystal clear that the motives behind are a vicious cocktail of factors arising from the ambitions of various stake holders of this anti Sri Lanka campaign. ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Firstly, sections of the Diaspora need to see the culmination of Tamil Elam dream. Secondly the super powers in the west need to ensure a strategically pro west Sri Lanka. Thirdly the local antagonists need to oust this government to grab power or install a government favorable to them. Fourthly the human rights industry need another place to keep the business thriving.

However much the campaign to depict the present Sri Lanka regime as a dictatorial, ruthless nepotistic clan, the fact remains it is far from reality. This does not mean that the present regime is impeccably white or they are not blame worthy. Far from it; yet the fact remains that no true dictator or a totalitarian regime can exist in this country without majority peoplesƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ wish. Dictators do not need peoplesƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ sanction to rule. The present regime is being strengthened by the people with every election.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  A proxy LTTE political party won the majority of local government elections in the north thereby highlighting democracy is alive and thriving. The more the campaign against the present regime gathers momentum; more the people of this country will be with the government. In fact this has become a blessing in disguise to the current regime and has overshadowed its serious faults which would otherwise have overthrown the regime by the masses through democratic means. The charisma of the head of state goes unchallenged. ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Concurrently the downfall of the main opposition party through internal bickering has been a bonus to the government. U.N.P spokesman Harsha De Silva in an interview with Sunday Divaina states that there is no truth in the fact that a threat to Sri LankaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s sovereignty exists externally, as proclaimed by government propaganda. This is correct. What Harsh De Silva does not say is that that the threat actually is to the Government of Sri Lanka which the campaigners want ousted at any cost and possibly to install a government favorable to them. The challenge before the U.N.P, the major opposition political party is to show by word and deed that the party is not the preferred choice of these external stake holders wanting regime change. Then only the masses will take the party in to confidence and consider it as the alternative to the current regime. Ranil Wickramasinghe seems to be the favored local leader of jayalalitha, the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. She has called for punitive action against Mahinda Rajapakse and wants Elam carved out.

The strong mass support the government has obtained makes the present regime to take this support for granted and carry on regardless despite glaring blunders in governance, corruption and impunity form wrong doing for the favored. The people; including those opposed to the governmentƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s way of handling countryƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s affairs have to tolerate these transgressions because they have no other alternative. No other country where internal turmoil has been instigated by outside stake holders with a view to replacing the rulers with lackey governments has such factors in favor of the regime in power.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Hence there is a strong possibility of instigating higher momentum disturbances of peace through social unrest and chaos in this country by whatever means available. Could the Grease devil be such a phenomenon? The expenditure in ousting a ruthless dictator in Iraq is estimated at U.S $ 100 billion and thousands of lives. Yet democracy is far from established in Iraq.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  The assurances given by super powers that they do not contemplate a regime change in Sri Lanka and such allegations are not true have only a superficial value.

The recent statement by Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh that India cannot sever the current healthy economic and political ties with S L on demand from the southern Indian politicians is a crushing drawback to the anti S L campaign. IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s policy towards S L is the key to ensure the peace and progress of this country. Excessive tilting towards China is the only reason if India covertly instigates political instability in S L in the guise of safeguarding the rights of Tamil minority here. History shows that strengthening and using LTTE in destabilizing S.L was instigated as a consequence of overly pro U.S policy of the J.R. government while India was in the socialist block. Though times have changed and India is a close ally of the U.S; the same principals of destabilizing and regime change are applicable in case of necessity to protect Indian hegemony in the region. India has now begun to tighten the screw on our government by calling for investigations on war crimes reports, meaningful measures for reconciliation and constitutional changes. Therefore one cannot be complacent that India would standby Sri Lanka government when international pressure mounts gradually.

The coming months will be crucial because the campaign to indict SriƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  LankaƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  willƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  build up nearing UN human rights council sessions expected to meet in Geneva next month with already a call by the United States for an interactive dialogue to take place through a discussion on the LLRC report expected in November. The U.S foreign affairs committee has already decided to recommend a cut in aid to Sri Lanka.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  The million Dollar question is whether some of these demands which are purposely aimed to net the leaders and other key figures who lead the war effort can ever be met by the government. Moreover, will the forces behind the campaign be satisfied till chaos begins reigning again in Sri Lanka with cessation a strong possibility?

There is unquestionably a threat of regime change to Sri Lanka now brewing up internationally and the perpetrators will leave no stone unturned to ensure the goal is achieved.

In the circumstances what the government first should do is to immediately respect the confidence kept by the people on it and dispaly that it is genuinely interested in good governance and rally the masses irrespective of differences in order to show the world that the entire nation is behind it. Lavish unproductive, expenditure, rowdy corrupt politicians, filibustering on issues are only a few of such issues that needs immediate rectification. It is only the other day that a very senior minister went public highlighting the corruption in highways projects. Many a voter is compelled to support the government in spite of the glaring aberrations in good governance because they know that the main opposition party has not changed its policy of appeasement of anti national forces. ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ 

UPALI COORAY