Mahinda Weerasinghe

That famous Chinese greeting ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”May you live in exciting timesƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ may perhaps be fulfilled for you this year. For the world war III is about to be unlashed.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ 

War of words which is being exchanged betweenƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Iranand the West, over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions has reached ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”a boiling pointƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ and bound to spill over anytime soon.

So a thermonuclear war may be just a ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”hop step and a jumpƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ away.

Indeed a holy war against the “evil empireƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚ was issued by US President Ronald Reagan on March 8, 1985. Back then the “evil empireƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚ was theSoviet Union, as well as movements fighting, US-backed colonialism, apartheid and dictatorships. ReaganƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s advisers counseled offering arms to the zealous Al Qaeda to fight that ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”evil EmpireƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢. Those holy worriers, soon broke theUSSRƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s back, and then turned on the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”un-evilƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ empire the very guns which US has provided through the kindness of its heart!

IfUSSRwas in place today; it would be still fighting Islam andUSAwould still be going strong. But 9.11 changed all that.Afghanistan,Iraq,Libya,Egyptperhaps soonSyriais bleedingUSAprofusely. In fact the last nail of this ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”good empireƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢sƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ coffin perhaps would beIran. Thus giving credence to that ages old Sinhalese saying; ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”every donkey has his dayƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢. All these will come to pass just because; bureaucratic nitwits are running such empires. Indeed most such ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”arrogantƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ empires have gone to dust heap of time and simply ebbed away. It goes to goes to prove one thing; that the first priority of a good leader is select wise and far thinking advisers, and not surround themselves with ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”back lickersƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢, as curiously is the case.

Present day advisersƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ assume that, the impending war againstIranwould be a ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”localized affairƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ and can be contained, directed and run by them, well they are in for a surprise!

Let us first get at the hard facts which have brought the world presently to its knees, before evaluating how this ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”localized affairƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ would end up triggering a world conflagration.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ A few day ago world we were notified that, Iran’s scientists have been assassinated.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ 

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Then we get hear of a cyber war has been initiated usingƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ the Stuxnet virusƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ on the systems controllingIran’s fuel enrichment centrifuges.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Iranians then brought down a CIA drone and accused US of invading its Airspace.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Economic sanctions againstIranhave been imposed and more are on the pipeline, and if those be imposed, ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”a full born economic warƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ againstIranwould become a reality.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Economic sanctions that the US andUKare introducing ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢¢”š¬…” and indications are that EU may follow suit ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢¢”š¬…” are all unilateral measures without the sanction of the UN.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Iran’s central bank is being ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”black listedƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ meaning that; nations such as Indiaand Turkeywill find it increasingly difficult to pay for Iranian oil. Already Indiahad problems when its banks were threatened by the USfor having business with Iran, forcing it to arrange its payment through TurkeyƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s Halkbank.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Halkbank has indicatedƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ that with the newUS sanctions, it may not be able to handleIndia’s payments.India has now sought a waiver from theUS for buying oil fromIran for which it should need no permission of any third country in the first place.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ All such tangible acts are leading us along the garden path to a pan Christian Islamic confrontation!

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ It also seems farcical that the USwhich already is involved in assassination campaigns in Iran, should cry foul over Iran’s so-called conspiracy for assassination of Saudi diplomats in the US. In any case, most analystsƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ consider that the conspiracy of which the US administration accused Iran of:ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  either being a deliberate fabrication by the FBI and CIA or an attempt by an interestedƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ third partyƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ to increase tensions betweenIran and theUS. Indeed this third party they accuse being none other thanIsrael.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Make no mistake that the US of A is already at war withIran. It may be a low-grade war and not a full-blown shooting war yet. But itƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s a war by other means. IfIranhad done any of the acts that theUSandIsraelhas done, it would have been construed as an act of war, and would have lead to an immediate full blown conflict.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Now US is deploying more warships to the Persian Gulf area, with the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson entering theArabian Sea. Washington is also winning over Japan and India in the oil sanction war against Iran.

Iranis also aware that; closing theStrait of Hormuzto oil tankers (which carry around 17 million barrels of oil per day) is tantamount to a declaration of war. AndIranknows that sanctions against its central bank threaten the domestic economy (the exchange rate of Iranian riyal slumped to around 17 thousand riyal against the dollar, compared to 10 thousand riyals before the crisis). This is not to mention the endemic inflation in the country as a result of misguided government policies. These factors weaken support for the regime ahead of the elections scheduled to take place in a few months, especially amid growing voices of dissent. This makes it difficult to fight battles on many internal and external fronts at once such advisers believe.

Furthermore, the closure of theStrait of Hormuzwill be of no use if it lasted for a day or two. Rather, it has to be closed for a long period of time, perhaps for several weeks, before the major Western nations would feel the pinch, as they are in possession of strategic and commercial reserves that can last up to one month or two. However, shutting down the Strait for a prolonged period of time will also mean the disruption of Iranian oil exports and imports of foreign goods.

Notwithstanding such clear-cutlogicStraitof Hormuz will be blocked byIranany time soon. And western nations will predictably react.

The Iranian-Western conflict has many dimensions, including defense and broadening of both sides’ interests in the Middle East, as well as the issues of the Iranian nuclear program and the freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, especially in what regards the transit of oil tankers in the vital Strait of Hormuz. While this conflict, in its various aspects, has been raging since the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1980, it has taken on a specific dimension since the IAEA published a report in early November highlighting new information regarding secret progress in the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Though, this was adamantly denied byIran, which reiterated that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only

The overseas edition of the People’s Daily spelled out the fears facing Chinese policy-makers, caught between their demand for Iranian oil and worries that Washington and its allies will demand harsher sanctions against Tehran, even risk military action, after the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded Tehran appears to be in the process of producing atomic weapons.

Now let us step back and look at the localized history of theIranand its conquest by Arabs and how it applies to the present day situation.

The Arab-Iranian conflict is as old as the history of the regional players. The historians will not fail to call attention to the fact that the war betweenIraqandIranis a conflict between two peoples, belonging to dissimilar civilizations, and whose origins date back to the ancient times of Arabia andPersia.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The Iranian language is considered as one of the ancient Indo-European extract along with Greek, German and Armenian, among others. The Arabic tongue is of Semitic language group, and the Arabs are of the Semitic ethnic assembly.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Despite their geographical proximity, the differences betweenIraqandPersiahave always been greater than their similarities. Relations between the two countries were frankly hostile until the birth of Islam and the Arab conquest ofPersia. Islam, carrying a novel message, destroyed the advanced Zoroastrian culture as it did to the Buddhist nations along theSilk Road.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Historically the Arabs left the Arabian Peninsula by successive waves in order to access the Mediterranean Sea, where they became known under the name of Phoenicians, as well as reaching the fertile lands ofIraq.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The mountains of Zagros constitute a natural barrier to the east of this country. These mountains made a natural barrier from the Persian civilization to that of the Arabs historically.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ ZoroastrianPersia, too, had its own sciences, its own customs and its own religion.

The historian J.M. Roberts writes that the central idea in the Persian religions was the affirmation of the divine nature of royalty. Moreover, “the doctrines in which they (the Persians) believed stressed the existence of a creature, Ahura Mazda, whose viceroy on earth was the king.ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚ He notes that their science, customs and religion were foreign to those of the Arabs.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ With respect to military strategy, the Arabs and the Persians also had varying conceptions, as clearly shown by the battle of Qadisiyah. It is indeed at this site that the decisive battle took place, allowing the Arab Muslims led by Sa’ad bin Abi Waqqas under the Omar bin Al-Khattab Caliphate to defeat the Persians headed by Rustom. This victory occurred on the last day of May or the first day of April 637 A.D.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ After the bitter defeat at Qadisiyah, with the death of Rustom and the routing of the Sasanid army, the way was cleared for the Muslim conquests inPersia,Indiaand other Asian countries.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The Arab conquest ofPersiameant that this country would become part of the region governed by the Arabs, and thus marked the beginning of a history common to both peoples. The situation did not last long. Persia took advantage of the decline of the Abbasids (and thus, of Arab leadership) as well as the overthrow of the Caliphate by other Muslim peoples, namely, the Turks, in order to free itself from Arab control and to assert its independence.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The real division was brought about by the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”Sunni and SheaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ divide. Most Muslims outsideMiddle Eastdoes know what this difference consist of.

Sunni line follow the Prophet and the first three Caliphs and Shea follow Ali and his progeny, i.e. Mohamed and his blood line through his daughterƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  Fatima and his son in Law Ali. In reality there is no philosophical divide between these two main stream of Islam.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ USAwas striving for sectarian conflict by pitting Sunni Saudi Arabia against SheaIran, but it did not fructify.

So how can an isolatedIranbe at the center of a world conflagration you may ask?

Simply this;USAƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s European economy is looking bad. Why?ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚  They have priced themselves out of the market. How can their products match the much cheaper products and raw material coming out ofChina, India Brazil and the Asian Tigers? The only way these imperialist nations can grab power back and revive their economy is by initiating a war.

On the other hand nations owing a ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”religion of peaceƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ (Islamic nations) are coerced to be peaceful! And if they do not control their surging population the ultimate outcome is, implosion.

(See my piece on:ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ http://www.lankaweb.com/news/items/2011/04/05/%E2%80%98the-religion-of-peace%E2%80%99-is-imploding/ )

With population growing by leaps and bounds and lacking of ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”lebensraumƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ or resources, such nations will be in a permanent state of upheaval, internal strife civil war and finally disintegration. For contained and constricted borders arrest them from going on wars of aggression against unbelievers, which leaves them no option but to fall on each other like caged animals. This will be the situation in countries such asIran,Pakistan, andBangladeshand other Islamic nations which culturally use women as production machines.

In this case we have to apply that good old Darwinian principle of ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”survival of the fittestƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ but with an explicit correction, ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”survival of the fittestƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ but within the given borders.

Islamic creed is such that itƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s difficult to make its believers recognize that the world do not have limitless land, water, jobs and resources to the ever increasing numbers of theirs. In the past such Islamic cultureƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s has been geared towards reproduction for they need manpower after each war; for the next holy jihad of massacring unbelievers. Today the borders are shut tight and one crosses a border on an imperialistic campaign; is to coat a backlash from UN members.

So, implosions in the Muslim worldƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ in the near future would be the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”ruleƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢, as self preservation and survival is threatened by unrestrained population surge according to the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”survival of the fittestƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ principle in the Islamic counties as the Arab spring depicted.

Hence the Iranian leaders will welcome a war. A diversion they can use to send the holy warriors to fight in the name of Allah and die. They have teeming millions of holy warriors who will be willing to die. These Islamic holy warriors know that they get to enter paradise instantly at death; and Allah will provide them with 80000 or whatever number of virgins to be deflowered by the martyr. Obviously any red blooded male chauvinist will embrace that opportunity.

Hence both sides are in fact itching for a war. Now itƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s natural to question; how come such a localized conflict turn global and worse, transform into a nuclear conflagration?

Simply this way, Muslims will understand the west is taking down one Muslim country at a time and dismantling them. Now countries such asPakistanandBangladeshare not hanged up with the Sunni Shea difference. So they will send their holy worriers to die in the name of Allah. Added to whichPakistanhas nuclear weapons and perhapsIrantoo, they have teaming millions and happy to martyr themselves in order enter paradise.

Under the circumstances the west will be in a no win situation, with un-ending numbers of Muslims entering the fray; so the west will be forced to use thermo nuclear weapons.

So the nations who are not involved with this conflict such as the Buddhist and the Hindus should prepare for nuclear fallout and take measures to look after their health.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ I can unequivocally state that 2012 year will be an exciting times for all and sundry. Let me clarify that last statement, in fact it should be as exciting as a hangmenƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s noose.

ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Mahinda Weerasinghe

24.01.2012