Dilrook Kannangara

According to Gorbachev, the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster has a lot to do in the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. He revealed this in a book he wrote. Previously his Glasnost program was blamed in most part for the fall. But the veteran explains how people demanded more transparency from the government following the disaster which forced the government to come up with the Glasnost program. Obviously economic woes and inevitable change took over the momentum but the trigger could well be the Chernobyl (in the Republic of Ukraine) disaster in April 1986. It highlighted the fallibility of the Union that won most of its wars and its leaders projected to be in total charge.

Triggers Within and Without

India is a country waiting to collapse. The only remaining country of the Soviet and Yugoslav model, it is a matter of time India collapsed. Hinduism was the binding factor that kept it going but it is fast becoming irrelevant today. Triggered by various ethnic groups within India, it clashes with its neighbours. Today all the neighbours of India without exception are its enemies. It will not surprise anyone if IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s neighbours plot to the demise of it. Indian disintegration will bring peace and relief to hundreds of millions of people. Today India faces multiple challenges internally. The gap between the rich and poor expands rapidly while the infrastructure has not developed. Caste system, racism, lack of ethnic integration, nations-within-nations and ambiguous foreign alliances are significant levers of disintegration. Each of these pulls India in different directions.

Though India boasts to be the worldƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s largest democracy, its people hardly enjoy democratic rights. Freedom of expression has been severely curtailed through state controlled or influenced media entities. Dissent on national issues is not tolerated. Old friends including Russia have been marginalised with France and USA emerging as IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s new bedfellows.

A Nuclear Disaster

Before considering this likelihood it is useful to analyse the distribution of nuclear power plants and weapons of India. India is a nuclear power since its first explosion code named ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”smiling BuddhaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ in 1974. Estimates put its number of war heads at a modest 50 – 100. Recently Indians have expanded their reach of nuclear weapons delivery rockets to Beijing. Though it is not clearly known where it deploys its nuclear weapons, reason has it that those must be away from population centres and closer to action. India is very highly populated with the highest population density of all nuclear powers. This makes its population highly vulnerable to any accidental, intentional or retaliatory damage to its nuclear warheads. Limited news reports indicate the displeasure of people in certain states to host nuclear warheads. North western, extreme northern, north eastern and southern states hold most of IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s nuclear warheads.

These have been placed away from the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”Hindi BeltƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ for safety, political, economic and purely racist reasons. IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s dominant Hindi Belt people have been shielded from dangers deriving from its nuclear weapons. Any nuclear disaster involving these weapons will highlight racist discrimination of India that endangers people living outside the Hindi Belt. This coupled with growing displeasure of ethnic and caste discrimination, Hindi centric decision making and Hindi cultural dominance will trigger IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s collapse.

However, there is a much bigger threat that looms from nuclear power plants that spread very fast to meet the growing electricity demand. Except few small plants, all the others are located outside the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”Hindi BeltƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢. Very large plants are under construction and in planning stage in many parts of the country well away from the Hindi Belt. Most of them actually follow the Chernobyl design. IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s safety standards, investment in safety procedures and disaster response are many layers behind that of even the Soviet Union. Any disaster will be a major catastrophe affecting hundreds of millions of people. A large number of these plants are in coastal areas facing the possibility of tsunamis, tidal waves and cyclones.

Apart from accidents there is the strong possibility of terrorist and military attacks. India has earned the wrath of many groups and hence is house to over a dozen terrorist groups of various denominations. Neighbouring Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal have their terrorist groups. Tamil terrorists from Sri Lanka are now in India. They are highly resourceful and fully cognizant of the spectacular impact they can create. A terrorist attack on an Indian nuclear plant will dwarf the Chernobyl disaster.

Such a disaster will get people thinking about deliberate plans to put their lives at risk by the dominant Hindi native speakers. Faith in the Indian union will collapse. People will protest throughout the country demanding independence. They will fuel independence movements already in operation in almost all Indian states outside the Hindi Belt. Protestors will also demand the removal of Indian nuclear warheads stationed in their states which will collapse IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s nuclear deterrence making it immediately vulnerable to foreign attacks.

Assam, Bihar and Kashmir are IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s staging platforms of bombers, fighter planes, long range missiles and most nuclear missiles. Ukraine was the equivalent platform of the Soviet Union. Needless to say UkraineƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s displeasure of hosting Soviet nuclear weapons after the Chernobyl disaster! In fact after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine voluntarily dismantled all its nuclear warheads and the remainder was handed over to Russia. After Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Ukraine was the next to leave the Union. Similarly, a nuclear catastrophe affected Indians states and Indian states that host Indian nuclear weapons will be the first to leave the Indian union.

Soviet Union lasted for 69 years. India will be 69 in another three yearsƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ time. It pays for IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s neighbours and threatened countries to devise a common plan to accelerate IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s demise.