By Gomin Dayasri

In the cities it is Sirisena, in the villages it is Rajapakse. Is the nation two-dimensional? Listen to their talk. It’s a two-way mode reciprocally from the city and village on mobile phones – the beckoning instrument more valued than thousand posters. The prime unheralded weapon of mass destruction that annihilated Fonseka last time. Who will suffer this time as the dialogue extends from home to home?

 Come elections, either the cities will spill into the village or villages will enlarge into the city.  The differences merge to become one. Which will overtake the other is too early to read.  The campaigns should make the difference but it will not since the ad men are stupidly up in clouds compared to the intelligentsia on terra firma; defections will reveal a reading: not necessarily the correct. Other factors matter much more to a defector.

 Cities, high on minorities, is Sirisena’s homeland and villages solidly Sinhala Buddhist are with Rajapakse.  East is a story of its own, possibly the best governed after Tiger misrule. Muslims of the agricultural East are a kind of its own- winner takes the most but will try to take all. They are sons of the soil: different to their trading brotherhood in the city.

 North, where TNA calls the shots will end strongly for Sirisena. If Sirisena is to win, North needs to push him over the finishing line; diaspora with their cash flow is more potent than the TNA with weird Wigneswaran. If Sirisena were the sure winner in the south, TNA would sail in that boat. It is watch time; TNA has no other choice but to sail with Sirisena and to face the consequences of a possible victory or defeat. If Sirisena wins much of the glory will extend to the TNA for taking him over the 50% mark. For the North it is not an election, it is a referendum.

 In this election, North and East has a vote that counts and can make a tilt towards the winner unless the South swings strongly to a candidate.  A westernized Ranil Wickremasinghe would have been a more attractive proposition than a sarong clad Sirisena as the diaspora escorts the northerners to the polling booth, with dollars and pounds – hand in hand.

 Most in Colombo think it is Sirisena all the way. One thing is for sure. Many that voted for Rajapakse is not voting for him again. It is not that Sirisena is any smarter than Fonseka, a war hero, but Rajapakse is thought worse than at the time he won the war, when he was deemed great. He stands exposed on law and order, the prime issue in the city; but not a great concern in the village where development is experienced. Even if Rajapakse wins his majority sure will be reduced as the cities are alienated. The glory that a city displays physically and visibly is not registered in the ballot paper. Development, the under rated issue, will show its face on the ballot paper, to show its strength or cast a shadow in a villages. In a presidential election each vote counts irrespective where it is polled. A second round count is dangerous for Rajapakse to touch.

 A third term is tough. It speaks of Rajapakse’s popularity to undertake the crusade. Otherwise, the defections would have been unprecedented. It grounded too early to Chandrika’s horror. She was the cause and effect of the defections. She gave much hope and ended being hopeless at it. She opened the box and placed the lid on it, as her hand was visible to set alarm bells to ring.  The cry – not her again, grounded the possible defectors while she faded into the background. Defections do not mean votes except possibly in the case of Hirunika Premachandra: her name or picture is not on the ballot paper. To the young she is a more attractive logo than the symbol of a swan set on sail.

 This election is won or lost on the vote of the under 40 club – children of Facebook & Twitter. Ordinarily under forties are an anti establishment vote that should be a safe house for the opposition as against an government that is over a quarter centaury established in office. But the performance of the opposition is dismal and there is little to look forward to with a colorless candidate –no Modi: duller than Gandhi. Yet the government faces are too ugly for a beautician to uplift. An ugly field causes the prevailing apathy that is tragic. Where are we to go? Under- forties have decided on their vote. That vote needs no telling, it needs only to be counted. A surprise awaits here that can change the result.

 The campaign remains a bounty to the media. Election is won and lost on the economy and security. The opposition picked an issue that enthuses constitutional geeks that does not touch the heart or mind of the common man. The day the opposition lost the fire in the campaign was in giving the lead to a Buddhist monk to set directions and select not the best candidate. Give a hand to a blind man that declines the white cane. Needed was not a common candidate but an extraordinary candidate. My vote is for Kumar Sangakkara in 2019?  He is not dumb like the other chump – cannot master blast the people for too long –they will leather with an old ball.

 Both campaigns are lackluster. It has only flushed out black money where more is doled out to the opposition as a safety precaution from the money ill earned from state coffers. Government has to campaign against itself with Sirisena as the opposition candidate and was taken aback as it had geared a campaign against the UNP. It is just that the UNP is unpredictable to the UNP; is it a blessing in disguise? Government campaign lacks color as it is merely propping its leader who is perpetually popped up, to make the President – an overdone election bore with no premier opposition target to aim its shots at: as for Sirisena, it’s like practicing pot shots taken at their domestic scarecrow in the front home garden.

 Posters and cut outs are loosing votes but has a value factor in that it establishes in the mind of the voter that there is no opposition in the field that leads to campaign apathy for an isolated candidate. Opposition lacks the required party machinery to carry a campaign forward and the field has been left wide open for the government to operate with the UNP sitting out of the elections, twice over. Fonseka was blessed with the JVP taking over his field operations. This could lead to a loss of votes for Sirisena in the villages – it means a one horse race to them? A UNP man may vote but not work for a SLFP man. Just as much the SLFP men are not benefitting and are not voting for UNP cross overs-unless the name reads Dayasiri Jayasekera – a former young SLFP stalwart came home. Mahinda    Rajapakse stayed with the SLFP to be a true blue while his brother Basil jostled with the UNP and came back home. Those irrelevant features matter much for a stout and loyal UNP or SLFP supporter at the village level where family ties bind him to the party of his ancestors from time immemorial.

 The elections real loser is not any candidate but the JHU that needs a defection to be heard. It hoped to fashion its own Presidential candidate of the future but ended in the same basket as the TNA in its suicidal bid. Such is the political intelligence of a party that is most likely to disappear. Elections are not for monks or for pretenders in sil kits. They are negligible especially when they crisscross party lines. Principle needs laundering along with their white cloth.

 J.R Jayewardane’s constitution did away with by–elections; so as not to distract a government in office. Instead it created unintentionally a plethora of elections, perpetually sending people to the polling booth. Apex election being the presidential can make or unmake a sitting government on being unpredictable! Last time it was predictable except for the Colombians who thought Rajapakse would lose. This time too they think the same but this election is less predictable because of the under 40 club – now getting the Modi treatment overtime from the Modi Media Team bought to help Rajapakse’s dull social networks. Ironical. It is whispered that Obama has hired them to enhance his fatigued image.

 Unlike in India, Sri Lanka’s young intelligence does not need a tweet to spur their brains. The young men in business are serious minded require peace and stability.  Unlike their older counterparts-the Colombian rump, elite young educated in the West carries no colonial baggage, thinks of change – yes, but stability comes first. Sri Lanka’s urban and village young elite cares not a hoot for a tweet. They rely on their grey matter wearing leather boots anchored firmly to the ground and depends not on a tap of a finger with a machine in front to make a decision. Unlike the ancient at the club, they speak Sinhala/Tamil at home and more fluently in public. They have not lost their bearings like the lost Colombians.

 The morning of the ninth of January twenty fifteen will not be another day. It will be the inauguration  of the realignment circle. There will be crossings marked as aligned for the future, sadly. What does that mean?  Invitation goes to the members of the loosing party at the on coming general elections

 There will be moles that will cross party lines after winning at the general elections to become Ministers, as there is an over load of candidates to make a party list of the winner. Worse is – it is pre-planned:  just what the constitution prohibited; made to look so easy by judicial interpretations.  Deserved justice for having such Justices on the Bench!

  Worse is when an appointed MP defect, which is also programmed. Still worse are the liberals talking the virtues of democracy, travelled the world around on public funds and throw principle to wind. Nice to sit back and laugh at this western concept called elections in a democracy!  Social Networks are fighting to restore its face! They are greedy to earn foreign trips and exchange – have pity they have to lead the life of the rich having limited skills.