Possible US-UK-France-Israel-Saudi Alliance Verses Russia-Iran-Syria Military Showdown
Posted on April 11th, 2018
Kumar Moses
Western regimes (without evidence) have alleged Syrian government used chemical weapons and threatened military action. Russia and Syria at the emergency UN Security Council meeting demanded UN chemical weapons inspectors carry out an investigation immediately. USA, UK and France vehemently opposed any such investigation! Syria is facing Iraq’s WMDmoment. Unlike Iraq 2002, Syria 2018 is backed by Russia and Iran.
Game of threats and counter threats
USA, UK and France have threatened to carry out military strikes against the civilian Assad regime. Israel has already carried out limited air attacks on Syrian military killing over a dozen Syrians. Saudi Arabia as expressed willingness to join them. Interestingly Saudi Prince MbS recently conceded the right of Israel to exist as a nation, as it is, and allowed Indian and other airlines headed to Israel to overfly Saudi Kingdom. Israel now has the Sunni Kingdom at their feet.
In turn Russia has promised dire consequences for the US lead alliance if any Russia is harmed intentionally or not. Iran has a continuing threat to close the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. This will be a windfall for Russia and Iran in their petroleum exports as Saudi and Qatar petroleum exports will be disrupted.
Across the globe, China is accused of staging military drills mocking the invasion of rebellious Chinese province of Taiwan. USA raised tensions in Taiwan after it lifted a travel ban on US officials to Taiwan and agreed to sell weapons hitherto withheld from selling. If war breaks out between USA and Russia in and around Syria, China will grab the good opportunity to assert its influence in the western Pacific.
Military build-up
USA is preparing to strike Syria with the guided missile destroyer USS Donald Cook armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles. April 2017 saw Tomahawk missiles attacking Syrian airfields and the same warship attacked Libyan air defences before taking on Kaddafi’s forces. USS Donald Cook is now in the Eastern Mediterranean close to Syria. Russian military base Latakia in the Syrian western coast may also be a target.
US aircraft carrier Harry S Truman along with a Carrier Strike Group has left Norfolk heading to the Middle East to engage Syria. USA already has one carrier battle group stationed in the Middle East.
France and UK have sent their own warships to the region.
An armed Russian warplane harassed French frigate Aquitaine in the region after using advanced electronic warfare jamming mechanisms to shut out the French frigate’s defences. Electronic warfare of Russian troops also saw action against US surveillance and attack drones in Syria recently. Just a month ago Iranian troops in southern Syria shot down an Israeli F-16fighter jet with a 1960s Russian S-200 missile system.
Quiet escalation or noisy chicken-out?
In most likelihood parties will chicken out with some noise as USA did in April 2017. US Tomahawk missiles, 59 of them, failed to cause real damage to Syria but they made a lot of noise convincing some people to believe they won the encounter! In reality the opposite happened – Syrian troops won a number of battles against US funded terrorist groups and reclaimed territory occupied by them. Both sides quietly shared wins – publicity wins for the democratic camp and actual military gains for the other camp.
This will be the same in most likelihood. However, there is some probability of escalation, if the parties stick to their public threats. Trust between NATO and Russia is at all-time low, lower than during the Cold War. Since April 2017, the parties have worsened their ties by expulsion of diplomats, economic sanctions, military drills, new weapons development and deployment and tit-for-tat disruption of UN Security Council resolutions.
During the Cold War USA and the Soviet Union didn’t have aggressive leaders at the same time. When the US was ruled by an aggressive leader, the SU was ruled by a pacifist leader; when the SU was ruled by a relatively hawkish leader, the US was ruled by a relatively pacifist leader. This ensured de-escalation of tensions. However, this is not the case today. Both near peer rivals are ruled by powerful leaders. Even China is ruled by a powerful leader with little room for compromise. This makes a US-Russia confrontation far more likely today than during the Cold War.
Even if they walk out of total war with some casualties this time, it will not be the last of their confrontations. They will clash again in the near future.
April 11th, 2018 at 7:47 pm
The so called “Western Allies” are going to learn a bitter lesson soon unless they change their modes operandi.
There should be an end to those “lies”.
What I can’t understand is what is the benefit it gives to UK if they get involved in a war with Russia? UK is predicted to be in the top 10 economies in the world by 2050. How are they going to achieve it?
Can anyone of our readers shed some light??
April 11th, 2018 at 7:51 pm
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/world-in-2050-image1.png
The prediction of PwC
April 11th, 2018 at 8:03 pm
NATO, led by US is rapidly losing its global influence. They are desperate to show the world once again that they can still enforce their military might wherever they like. If they do, it would be a disaster of epic proportion.
The reality is that they can hardly afford another war, especially in the Middle East. They also know that Russia and Iran, ( and China too..) are overwhelmingly oppose any attack on Syria.
The West is playing a dangerous game with Russia, which has no interest in going to war. Yet, provoked and pushed to the limit, Russia will strike back with vengeance.
As Putin had already said, it’s dangerous to provoke a “Sleeping Bear..!”
April 12th, 2018 at 12:01 am
This is all done for the Greater Isreal project. That criminal state Isreal is the reason there is war in the middle east. Why Isreal is dragging US, UK and France and other NATO countries to fight their wars for their mad dreams of having zionist isreali empire stretching from the Euphrates to the Nile. Isreal and the AIPAC lobby closely aligned to the warmongering neocons in Washington D.C. is the big problems. Only solution is AIPAC in America is shut down and all dual Isreali agents booted out of US,UK and France and other countries if the middle east is to know peace and stability. Its all Isreal’s fault!
April 12th, 2018 at 5:30 am
I am glad that Russians elected Putin once more. If not for him there wont’ be a world for the ordinary folk to enjoy.
Assad is winning the war and then decides to chem attack his own people including children. In fact, there hasn’t been any gas attack in Douma. Russian Generals have gone and met the people and the hospital doctors and staff. They were not aware of such an attack. Even the soil samples did not prove it. The attack is a total fabrication. These stories are good for brain dead.
Skripal case in England is another fabrication. One day the Skripals will never recover, next day Yulia has gone home (in to hiding). Skripals’ recovery was easier than recovering from flu.
In the West, Criminals have more rights than Diplomats. It is not easy get a foreign criminal out of a country, they have human rights.
America wants WWIII to consolidate their power. Through the last two the only achievement was that. They don’t care who or how many die, they are after world dominance.
April 12th, 2018 at 6:05 am
Both Trump and Theresa May are inundated with their internal problems, and looking for a way out. What better way to divert the attention other than a fabricated story of an alleged gas attack in Syria…!
This is a repeat of WMD in Iraq. Both US and UK are fabricating stories with the help of mass media to portray themselves as the saviours of HRs, democracy, humanity, etc., etc.. As always they are using their bogus moral superiority to attack and neutralise their opponents. This time their target is Russia.
But, if they think they can outsmart Putin, they are only fooling themselves. He has already outsmarted America by helping to elect a moron like Trump as their President..!
April 12th, 2018 at 1:44 pm
Russia will in the end.
April 12th, 2018 at 1:45 pm
I meant that Russia will win in the end.
April 13th, 2018 at 5:57 am
NATO and the International Community were stunned by the modern weaponry used by Russians in Syria. Now they want to get rid of their old arsenal and put more money in to that. This is a pretext of funding the war machinery. Who cares about human life, human rights. Only terrorists have human rights. The way the UK and the west chased out the Diplomats, I thought the terrorists and criminals living in these countries have more rights than Diplomats. I think the average citizen in these countries have now realised the double talk of their leaders.
April 13th, 2018 at 3:00 pm
Nihal is correct; Russia has some fabulous new weapons now that they itching to test in actual combat. Among these are newly designed very accurate and fast anti-aircraft missiles.
Russia warned the US that if either Syrian or Russian forces are attacked in Syria as threatened by Trump, they will SHOOT THEM DOWN.
In the light of recent verified developments in Russian anti-missile systems, President Trump had better be very cautious!
April 14th, 2018 at 6:32 pm
This may be unpopular but the reality is USA had its way in Syria while Russia helplessly watched its ally being bombed mercilessly.
There is no justification for the illegal invasion of Syria by USA, UK and France. But the reality is they are the global policeman whether we like it or not.
As a small nation with the largest trade surplus with the US and the EU, Sri Lanka must not go against them particularly given the debt and forex crisis we are in. Beggars cannot be choosers and our leaders must understand this very well. Diversify our exports and end the debt crisis before taking on USA and the EU on various matters. Otherwise it only worsens our case.
April 15th, 2018 at 7:30 am
Lanka leaders & entrepreneurs should copy all the Life Supportive Ideas from all countries, especially the west, and MOVE FORWARD, not regress into chaos.
Chaos will only enable RW’s “Crash & Sell” Plans to gain more ground !
April 15th, 2018 at 3:11 pm
I completely endorse Dilrook’s stand on this.
As weak as we are economically and dependent on the West for our sustenance, we must tread cautiously now. This underscores why it is IMPERATIVE that Sri Lanka DIVERSIFIES and BROADENS it’s economic partnerships to place itself in a position that is beyond BLACKMAIL.
Nevertheless, when it comes to defending and protecting Sri Lanka’s SOVEREIGNTY and TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY even ECONOMIC considerations must take the backseat, for if we LOSE OUR MOTHERLAND we will have LOST IT ALL!
While Western Nations hypocritically preach homilies on human rights and fair play to others, their own actions display SINGLE-MINDED NAKED SELF-INTEREST as they PROCEED TO DESTROY developing countries with their superior firepower without pity, even as they spout drivel meaningless to the .hundreds of thousands dead in their wake.
As events in thast 50 years have AMPLY DEMONSTRATED these are SERIAL BUNGLERS incapable of solving OTHER PEOPLE’S PROBLEMS. Keep them at an ARMS LENGTH and NEVER OPEN THE DOOR TO YOUR HOUSE without IMPOSING and ENFORCING STRICT CONTROLS and SAFEGUARDS!
April 15th, 2018 at 3:25 pm
The danger here is that Trump is looking to divert attention away from, or even STOP the probe on Russia Interference in the last Presidential elections in the USA, and wants to prove that he is tough against his alleged friend-in-need Putin.
He is rather desperate now. Is he desperate enough to launch a limited shooting war …. just to foil the Democ-rats?? The problem is ….. can conflicts be limited after the shooting starts??
April 16th, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Where is NATO (Russia + Allies) now ?