A crucial election is forthcoming. Since 1948 Sri Lanka has been a vibrant democracy evidenced by the stream of elections held. We’ve had 1 referendum, 5 local government elections since 2002, 7 provincial council elections since 1999, 16 General Elections since 1947 & 7 Presidential Elections since 1982. Numbers play an important game in deciding the strategies & political campaigning. Here are some factors that many readers may like to look through & form their own observations & opinions.

 

Western Province comprises 3 districts (Colombo, Gampaha & Kalutara)

 

Electoral Polling Divisions = 15

Divisional Secretariats = 13

Grama Niladhari Divisions = 557

No of Villages = 357

Municipal Councils = 5

Urban Councils = 5

Pradeshiya Sabha = 3

 

Keeping to the official census statistics of 2012 the island’s population stood at 20,359,439 (20m)

 

5,851,130 (5.8m) or 28.7% of the Islands 20m live in the Western Province.

2,324,349 (2.3m) or 11.4% of the Islands 20m live in the Colombo District.

1,061,315 (1m) or 5.4% of the Islands 20m live in the Northern province which is the lease populated province.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN COLOMBO DISTRICT

Main 2 contestants at the 7 Presidential Elections held 

1. 1982 – JR (UNP) / Hector Kobbekaduwa (SLFP)
2. 1988 – R Premadasa (UNP) / Sirimavo Bandaranaike (SLFP)
3. 1994 – Srima Dissanayake (UNP) / Chandrika Bandaranaike (PA)
4. 1999 – Ranil Wikcremasinghe (UNP) / Chandrika Bandaranaike (PA)
5. 2005 – Ranil Wikcremasinghe (UNP) / Mahinda Rajapakse (UPFA)
6. 2010 – Sarath Fonseka Common Candidate / Mahinda Rajapakse (UPFA)
7. 2015 – Maithripala Sirisena Common Candidate / Mahinda Rajapakse (UPFA)

1. 1982 – JR Jayawardena (UNP) won 14 out of 15 polling divisions
2. 1988 – R Premadasa (UNP) won 9 out of 15 polling divisions with Sirimavo Bandaranaike winning 6
3. 1994 – Chandrika Bandaranaike (PA) won all 15 polling divisions
4. 1999 – Chandrika Bandaranaike (PA) won 9 polling divisions while Ranil W (UNP) won 6
5. 2005 – Mahinda Rajapakse (UPFA) won 7 polling divisions while Ranil W (UNP) won 8
6. 2010 – Mahinda Rajapakse (UPFA) won 9 polling divisions while Sarath Fonseka Common Candidate won 6
7. 2015 – Maithripala Sirisena Common Candidate won 10 polling divisions with Mahinda Rajapakse winning only 5

 

7 Presidential Election Results

JR = JR Jayawardena

RP = R Premadasa

HK = Hector Kobbekaduwa

SB = Sirimavo Bandaranaike

CB = Chandrika Bandaranaike

RW = Ranil Wickremasinghe

MR = Mahinda Rajapakse

SF = Sarath Fonseka

MS = Maithripala Sirisena

 

	1982	1988	1994	1999	2005	2010	2015
Colombo District Winner	436,290 57.71% JR	361,337 49.14% RP	557,708 64.8% CB	474,310 49.18% CB	569627 51.12% RW	614740 52.93% MR	725,073 55.93% MS
Loser	274,476 36.30% HK	339,958 46.23% SB	288,741 33.6% CB	425,185 44.08% RW	534431 47.96% RW	533,022 45.90% SF	562,614  43.40% MR

	COLOMBO Polling Divisions	1982	1989	1994	1999	2005	2010	2015
1	Colombo-North	JR	RP	CB	RW	RW	SF	MS
2	Colombo Central	JR	RP	CB	RW	RW	SF	MS
3	Borella	JR	RP	CB	RW	RW	SF	MS
4	Colombo-East	JR	RP	CB	RW	RW	SF	MS
5	Colombo-West	JR	RP	CB	RW	RW	SF	MS
6	Dehiwela	JR	RP	CB	RW	RW	SF	MS
7	Ratmalana	JR	RP	CB	CB	MR	MR	MS
8	Kolonnawa	JR	SB	CB	CB	RW	MR	MS
9	Kotte	JR	SB	CB	CB	RW	MR	MS
10	Kaduwela	JR	SB	CB	CB	MR	MR	MR
11	Avissawella	JR	RP	CB	CB	MR	MR	MR
12	Homagama	JR	SB	CB	CB	MR	MR	MR
13	Maharagama	JR	SB	CB	CB	MR	MR	MR
14	Kesbewa	HK	SB	CB	CB	MR	MR	MR
15	Moratuwa	JR	RP	CB	CB	MR	MR	MS

Out of the results of elections in Colombo District since 1982-2015 in a total 105 polling divisions the SLFP/UPFA/PA candidate has won 52 polling divisions while UNP candidate has won only 37 polling divisions, with Sarath Fonseka winning 6 and Maithripala Sirisena winning 10 polling divisions at the last 2 Presidential Elections

 

At the 7 Presidential Elections, of the 70 elections held in the 10 polling divisions of the Colombo District from 1982 to 2015 (other than the 5 Colombo Municipal areas)

• UNP Candidate has won 17 (24.2%)
• UNP’s Common Candidate has won 6 (8.5%)
• UPFA/PA/SLFP Presidential Candidate has won 47 (67.1%)

 

Colombo District Voter Turnout at the 7 Presidential Elections

 

		1982	1988	1994	1999	2005	2010	2015
Registered voters		972,196	1,088,780	1,235,959	1,337,083	1468537	1,521,85	1,586,59
Total Votes polled		764,021 78.59%	746,610 68.57%	876,446 70.9%	993,731 74.32%	1127129 76.75%	1,172,776 77.06%	1,311,694 82.67%
Valid votes		756,031 98.95%	735,315 98.20%	860,386 98.2%	964,534 97.06%	1114250 98.86%	1,161,382 99.03%	1,296,360 98.83%
Rejected votes		7,990 1.05%	11,295 1.51%	16,060 1.8%	29,197 2.94%	12879 1.14%	11,394 0.97%	15,334 1.17%
Did not vote		208,175	342,170	359,513	343,352	341,408	349,078	274,904

 

The voter turn-out has been steadily increasing in the Colombo District the highest 82.6% at the 2015 Presidential Elections & the lowest in the 1988 Presidential Elections with 68.5%.

 Rejected votes or voters rejecting their vote was the highest at the 1999 Presidential elections with 2.94% rejected votes.

 Taking the difference in the registered voters & the votes polled, voters who chose not to go to vote may be considered which was highest in the 2010 presidential elections (349,078).

 

Colombo District – Religious Composition

 

Colombo District	Buddhists	Hindus	Islam	Roman C	Christian	Other
Colombo-North	175,335	126,991	176,467	60,693	21,019	809
Colombo Central
Borella
Colombo-East
Colombo-West
Dehiwela-Mt. Lav	48,310	10,783	20,109	5,976	3,684	100
Ratmalana	66,808	5,739	10,837	7,183	4,847	92
Kolonnawa	123,787	13,050	44,189	7,360	3,260	41
Kotte	83,162	4,883	6,798	7,857	5,060	165
Kaduwela	227,939	3,524	3,735	12,519	3,879	445
Avissawella	154,502	10,927	2,189	8,874	2,533	49
Homagama	228,829	1,827	1,484	3,618	2,097	50
Maharagama	180,631	2,921	2,780	6,618	3,285	188
Kesbewa	228,138	2,260	2,160	8,297	4,271	106
Moratuwa	114,784	3,549	3,339	33,319	13,059	230
Total	1,632,225	186,454	274,087	162,314	66,994	2,275

Religious composition in Colombo Municipal Areas

 

1.      Islam	176,467	31.40%
2.      Buddhists	175,335	31.20%
3.      Hindus	126,991	22.60%
4.      Roman Catholics	60,693	10.80%
5.      Christians	21,019	3.70%
6.      Other	809	0.14%
Total	561,314

 

Religious composition in non-CMC areas

 

1.      Buddhists	1,456,890	82%
2.      Roman Catholics	101,621	5.70%
3.      Islam	97,620	5.50%
4.      Hindus	59,463	3.30%
5.      Christians	45,975	2.50%
6.      Other	1,466	0.08%
TOTAL	1,763,035

 

 

 

In the Colombo District

• Muslims are the majority in the Colombo Municipal Areas with 31.4% while in non-CMC areas they are 5.5%
• Buddhists are in the minority in the Colombo Municipal Areas with 31.2% while they are the Majority in the non CMC areas with 82%
• Hindus are 22.6% in the Colombo Municipal Areas whereas they are 3.3% in non-CMC areas
• Roman Catholics are 10.8% in the Colombo Municipal areas while they are 5.7% in non-CMC areas however their numbers are more in the non-CMC areas.
• In terms of numbers more Roman Catholics live outside the CMC areas (101,621) than in the CMC areas (60,693) similarly more Christians live outside the CMC areas (45,975) than in the CMC areas (21,019)

 

Source: http://www.statistics.gov.lk/PopHouSat/CPH2011/Pages/Activities/Reports/FinalReport/FinalReportE.pdf

Let us look at how the Colombo Municipal area has voted at the 7 Presidential Elections held from 1982 to 2015.

 

JR = JR Jayarwardena

RP = R Premadasa

CB = Chandrika Bandaranaike

RW = Ranil Wickremasinghe

SF = Sarath Fonseka

MS = Maithripala Sirisena

 

Colombo District	1982	1988	1994	1999	2005	2010	2015
Colombo-North	29,380 69.0% JR	22,389 63.26% RP	26,250 61.6% CB	32,714 61.53%  RW	45,161 / 75.1% RW	42,896 69.51% SF	51,537 75.07% MS
Colombo Central	68,346 72.8% JR	58,795 65.77% RP	56,219 61.8% CB	59,234 60.11% RW	78,908   78.5% RW	73,152 75.55% SF	82,495 81.28% MS
Borella	21,383 62.9% JR	16,452 52.67% RP	20,837 60.4% CB	19,151 50.12% RW	25,784  61.6% RW	23,636 57.46% SF	31,469 66.97% MS
Colombo-East	21,367  60.5% JR	16,480 51.09% RP	23,867 60.4% CB	22,281 52.09% RW	28,832  62.4% RW	28,334 58.67% SF	35,167 67.45% MS
Colombo-West	22,115 77.5% JR	14,670 62.36% RP	14,329 61.4% CB	16,531 65.35% RW	20,475  79.1% RW	19,211 73.80% SF	23,915 78.99% MS

 

 

Colombo North – The UNP candidate has secured 4 out of 7 Presidential elections (1982/1988/1999 & 2004). Mahinda Rajapakse has never won the Colombo North vote.

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections

Colombo North	UNP	16,165	28.03%
	UPFA	10,873	18.86%

 

What is interesting is that the Democratic National Front came 2^nd

Democratic People’s Front

12,795

22.19%

 

Colombo Central – The UNP candidate has secured 4 out of 7 Presidential elections (1982/1988/1999 & 2004). Mahinda Rajapakse has never won the Colombo Central vote.

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections

CMB Central	UNP	40,170	45.94%
	UPFA	17,472	19.98%

 

Borella – The UNP candidate has secured 4 out of 7 Presidential elections (1982/1988/1999 & 2004). Mahinda Rajapakse has never won the Borella vote.

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections

Borella	UNP	15,302	41.82%
	UPFA	11,750	32.11%

 

Colombo-East – The UNP candidate has secured 4 out of 7 Presidential elections (1982/1988/1999 & 2004). Mahinda Rajapakse has never won the Colombo-East vote

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections

Colombo East	UNP	13,092	32.74%
	UPFA	12,806	32.02%

 

Colombo-West – The UNP candidate has secured 4 out of 7 Presidential elections (1982/1988/1999 & 2004). Mahinda Rajapakse has never won the Colombo-West vote

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections

Colombo West	UNP	7,073	32.97%
	UPFA	4,783	22.29%

 

What is interesting is that the Democratic National Front came 2^nd

Democratic People’s Front

5,703

26.58%

UNP vote base in Colombo Municipal Area

 

Apart from 1994, all Colombo Municipal election results have favoured the UNP or the UNP promoted common candidate as was in 2010 & 2015.

 

Only at the 1994 Presidential Elections has the UPFA/SLFP/PA won all 5 Colombo Municipal Areas.

 

Colombo District	1982	1988	1994	1999	2005	2010	2015
Dehiwela	23,730   60.7% JR	18,326 50.03% RP	23,977 64.0% CB	19,126 47.58% RW	24,660  57.2% Ranil	24,441 55.07% SF	30,955 65.63% MS
Ratmalana	21,280  55.8% JR	18,409 47.82% RP	28,666 69.0% CB	22,868 52.02% CB	25,004   50.8% MR	26,215 53.16% MR	29,554 55.76% MS
Kolonnawa	25,221  51.3% JR	25,050 48.78% SB	40,296 64.5% CB	36,907 52.62% CB	40,744  49.6% Ranil	46,002 53.19% MR	56,835 58.39% MS
Kotte	25,129  56.6% JR	22,607 51.85% SB	31,646 64.7% CB	24,782 49.93% CB	27,106   49.7% Ranil	29,125 52.17% MR	34,614 58.09% MS
Kaduwela	27,963 / 48.8% JR	30,600 55.06% SB	51,876 67.4% CB	50,535 55.24% CB	65,829 / 57.8% MR	76,103 62.24% MR	70,970 50.46% MR
Avissawella	26,648 / 50.9% JR	24,292 49.36% RP	31,132 55.9% CB	33,957 52.10% CB	41,936v/ 53.0% MR	53,664 64.09% MR	51,351 54.12% MR
Homagama	27,981 / 51.7% JR	27,570 55.02% SB	45,072 65.7% CB	46,823 55.66% CB	64,433 / 59.1% MR	80,799 66.62% MR	77415 54.61% MR
Maharagama	26,967 / 49.4% JR	31,396 57.69% SB	47,818 69.8% CB	43,584 56.54% CB	53,681 / 59.3% MR	59,360 62.32% MR	53,327 50.62% MR
Kesbewa	26,553 / 47.9% Hector	35,184 55.88% SB	54,327 70.0% CB	51,240 57.17% CB	66,660 / 60.8% MR	77,474 65.10% MR	74,189 54.56% MR
Moratuwa	32,096 / 54.6% JR	31,546 48.77% RP	45,403 64.3% CB	41,380 52.16% CB	48,047 / 52.1% MR	52,627 57.99% MR	48,599 50.63% MS
All Colombo Winner	436,290 57.71% JR	361,337 49.14% RP	557,708 64.8% CB	474,310 49.18% CB	569627 51.12% RW	614740 52.93% MR	725,073 55.93% MS
Loser	274,476 36.30% HK	339,958 46.23% SB	288,741 33.6% CB	425,185 44.08% RW	534431 47.96% RW	533,022 45.90% SF	562,614  43.40% MR

 

Dehiwela-Mt Lavinia – The UNP candidate has secured 4 out of 7 Presidential elections (1982/1988/1999 & 2004). Mahinda Rajapakse has never won the Dehiwela vote. Dehiwela is the only polling division that voted for the UNF Common Candidate in both 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections.

 

As per 2012 census religious composition of Dehiwela is

• Buddhists 53%
• Muslims 16%,
• Hindu 9%
• Christians/Catholics 5%

(the figures are likely to have changed by 2018)

However at the 2014, Provincial Council Elections UPFA got 12,361 36.09% & beat UNP who got 11,629 33.95%

Ratmalana – The UNP candidate has secured only 1982/1988 vote. UPFA/PA Candidates Chandrika Bandaranaike secured Ratmalana in 1994 & 1999 while Mahinda Rajapakse secured 2005 & 2010. In 2015 Ratmalana voted for Maithriapala Sirisena

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council Elections UPFA got 17,396 44.65% while UNP got 11,347 29.12%

 

Kolonnawa – UNP Candidate JR won in 1982 / Ranil in 2005, while in 1988, 1994, 1999, 2010 was secured by Sirimavo Bandaranaike, Chandrika Bandaranaike & Mahinda Rajapakse. In 2015 Kolonnawa voted for Maithripala Sirisena

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council Elections UPFA got 35,813 46.50% while UNP got 22,072 28.66%

 

Kotte – UNP candidate JR won in 1982 & Ranil won in 2005, while in 1988, 1994, 1999, 2010 was secured by Sirimavo Bandaranaike, Chandrika Bandaranaike & Mahinda Rajapakse. In 2015 Kotte voted for Maithripala Sirisena

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 20,217 47.56% while UNP got 10,970 25.81%

 

Avissawella – UNP candidate JR & Premadasa won in 1982 & 1988 but all other elections (1994, 1999, 2005, 2010 & 2015) were won by UPFA/PA candidates

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 42,635 60.86% while UNP got 15,363 21.93%

 

Kaduwela – UNP candidate JR won Kaduwela only in 1982 – all other elections  (1988, 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015) were won by the UPFA/PA candidates

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 58,259 57.48% while UNP got 20,713 20.44%

Homagama – UNP candidate JR won Homagama only in 1982 – all other elections (1988, 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015) were won by the UPFA/PA candidates

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 53,983 52.28% while UNP got 32,890 31.85%

 

Maharagama – UNP candidate JR won Maharagama only in 1982 – all other elections (1988, 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010, 2015) were won by the UPFA/PA candidates

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 42,883 56.02% while UNP got 14,666 19.16%

 

Kesbewa – Since 1982 all Presidential Elections have been won by SLFP/UPFA/PA candidates

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 55,372 54.58% while UNP got 27,499 27.11%

 

Moratuwa – UNP candidates won in 1982 & 1988 while UPFA candidates CBK & Mahinda won in 1994, 1999, 2005, 2010 & in 2015 Moratuwa voted for Maithripala Sirisena

 

In the 2014 Provincial Council elections UPFA got 38,305 50.71% while UNP got 24,366 32.26%

 

At the last Presidential Election all 5 Electoral Polling Divisions of Colombo Municipality voted for the Common Candidate Maithripala Sirisena while of the 10 other Polling Divisions Dehiwela, Ratmalana, Kolonnawa, Kotte, & Moratuwa voted for Maithripala Sirisena.

 

Ratmalana, Kolonnawa, Kotte & Moratuwa had voted for the SLFP/UPFA/PA candidate at the 1994, 1999, 2005 & 2010 Presidential Elections but voted for Maithripala Sirisena in 2015.

 

Comparison of 2014 March Provincial Council Elections & 2015 January Presidential Elections

Colombo District	Presidential Elections 2015		Provincial Council 2014
	MS (SWAN)	MR (UPFA	UNP	UPFA
Colombo-North	51,537 75.07%	16,423 23.92%	16,165 28.03%	10,873 18.86%
Colombo Central	82,495 81.28%	17,779 17.52%	40,170 45.94%	17,472 19.98%
Borella	31,469 66.97%	15,148 32.24%	15,302 41.82%	11,750 32.11%
Colombo-East	35,167 67.45%	16,601 31.84%	13,092 32.74%	12,806 32.02%
Colombo-West	23,915 78.99%	6,164 20.36%	7073 32.97%	4783 22.29%
Dehiwela	30,955 65.63%	15,932 33.78%	11,629 33.95%	12,361 36.09%
Ratmalana	29,554 55.76%	23,144 43.66%	11,347 29.12%	17,396 44.65%
Kolonnawa	56,835 58.39%	39,767 40.86%	22,072 28.66%	35,813 46.50%
Kotte	34,614 58.09%	24,663 41.39%	10,970 25.81%	20,217 47.56%
Kaduwela	70,970 50.46%	70,970 50.46%	20,713 20.44%	58,259 57.48%
Avissawella	51,351 54.12%	51,351 54.12%	15,363 21.93%	42,635 60.86%
Homagama	77415 54.61%	77,415 54.61%	32,890 31.85%	53,983 52.28%
Maharagama	53,327 50.62%	53,327 50.62%	14,666 19.16%	42,883 56.02%
Kesbewa	74,189 54.56%	74,189 54.56%	27,499 27.11%	55,372 54.58%
Moratuwa	48,599 50.63%	46,885 48.85%	24,366 32.26%	38,305 50.71%

 

When looking at the 2014 Provincial Council election results & the 2015 Presidential Election Results it is clear that the UNP/Common Candidate vote base has significantly increased by over 400,000. Can this be sustained is the challenge that the UNP/Common Candidate faces at the 2020 Presidential elections.

 

UNP / Common candidate votes – Comparison of 2014 & 2015 results

Electoral Polling Division	Status of voting	Difference of votes in 2 elections
Colombo-North	Increase	by 35,372
Colombo Central	Increase	by 42,325
Borella	increase	by 16,167
Colombo-East	increase	by 22,075
Colombo-West	increase	by 16,842
Dehiwela	increase	by 19,326
Ratmalana	Increase	by 18,207
Kolonnawa	Increase	by 34,736
Kotte	increase	by 23,644
Kaduwela	increase	by 48,173
Avissawella	increase	by 27,365
Homagama	increase	by 30,673
Maharagama	increase	by 36,814
Kesbewa	increase	by 33,617
Moratuwa	increase	by 24,233
Total	increase	by 429,569

 

What is important to note is that in the 2015 Presidential Election the UNP did not contest but put forwarded a Common Candidate partnering with a coterie of parties all of whom got their vote bases to pool their vote to the common candidate & this explains the wins in all electoral polling divisions of Colombo as well as Dehiwela, Ratmalana, Kolonnawa & Kotte.

 

Poignant to note is that these same 4 polling divisions voted for the UPFA at the 2014 Provincial Council elections.

 

UPFA votes – comparison of 2014 & 2015 results

Colombo-North	Reduced by	5550
Colombo Central	Reduced by	307
Borella	Reduced by	3398
Colombo-East	Reduced by	3795
Colombo-West	Reduced by	1381
Dehiwela	Reduced by	3571
Ratmalana	Reduced by	5748
Total	Reduced by	23,750
Kolonnawa	Increased by	3954
Kotte	Increased by	4446
Kaduwela	Increased by	12,711
Avissawella	Increased by	8716
Homagama	Increased by	23,432
Maharagama	Increased by	10,444
Kesbewa	Increased by	18,817
Moratuwa	Increased by	8580
	Increased by	91,100

 

UNP voting at 5 elections (Presidential / General)

 

UNP/Common Candidate	Presidential 2005	GeneralE 2010	Presidential 2010	Presidential 2015	GeneralE 2015
Colombo-North	45,161 / 75.1%	30,825 60.55%	42,896 69.51%	51,537 75.07%	50,571 50.03%
Colombo Central	78,908 / 78.5%	51,421 63.73%	73,152 75.55%	82,495 81.28%	79,968 84.64%
Borella	25,784 / 61.6%	16,421 48.07%	23,636 57.46%	31,469 66.97%	28,968 64.23%
Colombo-East	28,832 / 62.4%	19,241 49.34%	28,334 58.67%	35,167 67.45%	31,450 65.44%
Colombo-West	20,475 / 79.1%	13,056 64.28%	19,211 73.80%	23,915 78.99%	22,060 80.11%
Dehiwela-Mt. Lav	24,660 / 57.2%	15,831 44.14%	24,441 55.07%	30,955 65.63%	28,153 63.57%
Ratmalana	23743 48.28%	15,384 38.21%	22,589 45.80%	29,554 55.76%	26,412 53.47%
Kolonnawa	40,744 49.67%	23,949 33.93%	39,497 45.67%	56,835 58.39%	49,196 53.72%
Kotte	27,106 49.73%	16,374 35.47%	26,129 46.81%	34,614 58.09%	30,247 54.16%
Kaduwela	47,025 41.32%	23,546 24.72%	45,082 36.87%	68,886 48.98%	56,154 42.70%
Avissawella	36,227 45.8%	16,730 25.81%	28,875 34.49%	42,728 40.03%	39,106 45.00%
Homagama	43,477 39.93%	26,841 28.16%	39,414 32.50%	63,563 44.84%	52,336 40.03%
Maharagama	36,093 39.91%	18,937 24.97%	35,162 36.91%	51,480 48.86%	41,374 41.98%
Kesbewa	42,042 38.36%	21,953 22.83%	40,474 34.01%	61,116 44.94%	49637 39.01%
Moratuwa	43,207 46.92%	25,356 34.03%	37,233 41.03%	48,599 50.63%	43,665 48.49%

 

 

Analysis based on numbers voting for UNP voting trend

 

Colombo North  –  Over 15,000 voter reduction seen in Colombo North from 2004 Presidential Election to 2010 General Election though increasing in both 20100 & 2015 Presidential Election though slight reduction at the 2015 General Election

 

Colombo Central – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections to further increase at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Borella – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Colombo East – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Colombo-West – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further increasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Dehiwela – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 General Elections

 

Ratmalana – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 General Elections

 

Kolonnawa – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Kotte – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Kaduwela – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Avissawella – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further increasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Homagama – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Maharagama – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Kesbewa – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Moratuwa – Major drop in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 & 2015 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 General Elections

 

 

 

UNP votes has seen a slight reduction in 6 electoral polling divisions:

Colombo North / Borella / Colombo East / Dehiwela / Ratmalana / Moratuwa

 

UNP votes has seen a decrease in 7 electoral polling divisions:

Kolonnawa / Kotte / Kaduwela / Avissawella / Homagama, Maharagama / Kesbewa

 

UNP votes have increased in 2 electoral polling divisions:

Colombo Central / Colombo West

 

 

UPFA voting at 5 elections (Presidential / General)

 

UPFA	Presidential 2005	GeneralE 2010	Presidential 2010	Presidential 2015	GeneralE 2015
Colombo-North	14,270 23.74%	15,976 31.38%	17,605 28.53%	16,423 23.92%	10,256 16.23%
Colombo Central	20,395 20.31%	21,794 27.01%	21,824 22.54%	17,779 17.52%	11,489 12.16%
Borella	15,644 37.42%	13,662 39.99%	16,909 41.11%	15,148 32.24%	11,842 27.08%
Colombo-East	16,919 36.62%	14,662 37.60%	19,107 39.56%	16,601 31.84%	12,917 26.88%
Colombo-West	5104 19.73%	5,169 25.45%	6,350 24.39%	6,164 20.36%	4,204 15.27%
Dehiwela-Mt. Lav	18,005 41.8%	15,472 43.14%	19,457 43.84%	15,932 33.78%	13,273 29.97%
Ratmalana	25,004 50.84%	19,486 48.40%	26,215 53.16%	23,144 43.66%	19,203 38.88%
Kolonnawa	40,616 49.51%	37,782 53.53%	46,002 53.19%	39,767 40.86%	35,300 38.55%
Kotte	26,987 49.51%	22,799 49.39%	29,125 52.17%	24,663 41.39%	20,797 37.24%
Kaduwela	65,829 57.84%	56,539 59.35%	76,103 62.24%	70,970 50.46%	62,136 47.25%
Avissawella	41,936 53.02%	42,259 65.20%	53,664 64.09%	51,351 54.12%	42,895 49.36%
Homagama	64,433 59.18%	57,951 60.80%	80,799 66.62%	77,415 54.61%	66,450 50.83%
Maharagama	53,681 59.37%	44,200 58.28%	59,360 62.32%	53,327 50.62%	47,049 47.74%
Kesbewa	66,660 60.82%	60,139 62.53%	77,474 65.10%	74,189 54.56%	65,243 51.28%
Moratuwa	48,047 52.17	40,369 54.17%	52,627 57.99%	46,885 48.85%	40,142 44.58%

 

Analysis based on numbers voting for UPFA voting trend

 

Colombo North – Major increase in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though decreasing at the 2010 Presidential Election & further decreasing at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections (vote base declining since 2010 Presidential Elections)

 

Colombo Central – Major increase in voter at the 2010 General Election from the 2005 Presidential Election though decreasing at the 2010 & further decreasing at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections (vote base declining since 2010 Presidential Elections)

 

Borella – Slight increase in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Election & a slight increase at the 2010 Presidential Election but major decrease at the 2015 Presidential Election & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections. (vote base declining since 2015 Presidential elections)

 

Colombo East – Slight increase in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections & a slight increase at the 2010 Presidential Election though declining at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.(vote base declining since 2015 Presidential Elections)

 

Colombo West – Increase in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections but slight decrease in 2010 Presidential elections & further decrease in both 2015 Presidential & General Elections (vote base declining since 2010 General Elections)

 

Dehiwela – Slight increase in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections & a slight increase at the 2010 Presidential Elections & further decrease in both 2015 Presidential & General Elections (vote base declining since 2010 Presidential Elections)

 

Ratmalana – slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Election though increasing at the 2010 Presidential Election but further decreasing at both the 2015 Presidential & General Elections. (vote base declining after the 2015 Presidential Elections)

 

Kolonnawa – Slight increase in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections & further increasing at the 2010 Presidential Elections though further decreasing at the 2015 Presidential & General Elections. (vote base declining from 2015 Presidential Elections)

 

Kotte – Slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though increasing at the 2010 Presidential Election but further decreasing at the 2015 Presidential & General Elections. (vote base has been declining from 2015 Presidential Elections)

 

Kaduwela – Major reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though increasing at the 2010 Presidential Elections but decreasing at the 2015 Presidential Election & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections. (vote base has been declining since 2015 Presidential Elections)

 

Avissawella – Slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though increasing at the 2010 Presidential Elections but declining at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections. (vote base has been declining since 2015 Presidential Elections)

 

Homagama – Slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though a major increase at the 2010 Presidential Elections but a slight decline at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Maharagama – Slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though a major increase at the 2010 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Kesbewa – Slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though a major increase at the 2010 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

Moratuwa – Slight reduction in voters at the 2010 General Elections from the 2005 Presidential Elections though a major increase at the 2010 Presidential Elections but a slight reduction at the 2015 Presidential Elections & further decreasing at the 2015 General Elections.

 

UPFA votes have seen reductions in all 15 electoral polling divisions in terms of numbers going to vote though percentage in comparison to voters polled/registered may differ:

 

These are all areas that the strategists & campaign teams must take stock of.

What can be concluded is that the Colombo Municipal Vote base has remained more or less secured for the UNP & given the ethno-religious composition of the area it explains why UNP are pro-minority.

With voters increasingly getting disgusted with the Parliamentarians they are voting to Parliament, political parties are advised to not take voters for granted. Party loyalty is one thing but many are beginning to realize that having a stable country is far more important than one’s loyalty to a political party & voters are now seeing things from different angles as a result of social media wherein they are now relying more on alternate media than the mainstream media that have often tended to play the politicians fiddle. Many of the so-called civil society organizations & their heads too have become exposed and though they played a key role in the 2015 elections they are unlikely to command the same attention of the voting populace as before. There are certainly new entrants either promoted by parties with vested interests to break the votes but voters who desire to have a stable country would keep in mind that it is pointless wasting one’s vote on any party or candidate that cannot secure an islandwide outcome.

 

 

 

 

 

Shenali D Waduge

 

Crucial to note is that the census statistics figures depicted in various sites differ in numbers & therefore it raises the question of which numbers are factually correct & how reliable they are.