A chilling reminder
Posted on October 7th, 2019
Editorial Courtesy The Island
Tuesday 8th October, 2019
UNP General Secretary and Minister Akila Viraj Kariyawasam has drawn heavy flak over a deplorable statement he happened to make, at the recent UNP convention, where the party’s presidential candidate, Sajith Premadasa, was officially named. Stressing that the UNP had to spare no pains to win the presidential election, Kariyawasam lamented that his party had not been able to take revenge, the way it wanted. His statement was the proverbial smidgeon of dung that spoils a pot of milk. What may be described as a Freudian slip, on his part, took the shine off the event.
Kariyawasam may not be of a violent disposition, but as the General Secretary of a major political party and, most of all, Minister of Education, he must exercise control over his tongue. What if the UNP activists take his statement as a call to arms? There is also the danger of Opposition supporters using it as an excuse to turn on their rivals in case of their victory.
Minister Kariyawasam’s statement evoked our memories of the shocking spree of violence following the 1977 regime change. A graphic description of how savage political violence can get, in this country, which prides itself on being home to four great religions, finds itself in the report of the late Justice T. A. D. Wijesundera Commission, appointed by the Kumaratunga government to probe incidents of political violence, from 1977 to 1994, and make recommendations for the payment of compensation to the victims.
The 1977 general election saw the advent of a UNP government with a steamroller majority, which it abused in every conceivable manner to suppress democratic rights of the Opposition. Its leaders turned a blind eye to the spate of post-election violence unleashed by their supporters, who were given free rein.
Following the 1977 regime change, an estate worker, affiliated to the SLFP-led Opposition, his wife and their young daughter had stones hailing down on their tin-roofed hut. The man went out to see what was happening. A group of sword-wielding pro-government thugs set upon him and severed his head. His wife and daughter rushed out and held his headless corpse, weeping. The mob doused them with petrol and set them on fire. Both suffered serious burn injuries, and only the mother survived to tell the story. There was not a dry eye in the house when she described, before the Wijesundera Commission, her agony.
Opposition activists underwent untold suffering under three UNP governments (1977-1994) and, therefore, it was feared that the change of government would lead to a bloodbath. But newly elected Prime Minister Chandrika Kumaratunga, to her credit, handled the situation well. She transformed all SLFP organisations at the grassroots level into peace committees and ordered them to prevent political violence. Her effort yielded the desired results.
Sajith’s late father, Ranasinghe Premadasa, served as a senior minister, the Prime Minister and the President during the 1977-1994 period, characterised by unprecedented political violence, which the UNP will never be able to live down. Kariyawasam’s aforesaid statement will surely be grist for the mill of the political rivals of Sajith, who cannot be unaware that such irresponsible utterances by party heavyweights are likely to be the kiss of death for his presidential bid. One of his trusted lieutenants has already threatened to put the main Opposition candidate in a ‘jumper’ in case of his victory. With friends like that who needs enemies?
The present government came to power, promising a new political culture. The people voted for it because they detested the suppression of democratic rights of the Opposition under the previous regime. The UNP owes an explanation to the public as regards its General Secretary’s veiled call to arms.
October 7th, 2019 at 3:51 pm
My election forecast as at today.
Please note this is not an endorsement of anyone. No matter which main candidate wins, Sri Lanka is doomed.
This is based on past voting pattern adjusted to present trends.
GR – 48%
SP – 43%
Others – 9%
Error margin – within approx. +/- 0.7%.
October 7th, 2019 at 4:15 pm
The driving force of both main contestants at presidential elections has been racism (except 1994). The critical mass of one party is provided by Sinhala Buddhist racists while Tamil and Muslim racists provide it for the other.
This time racism takes a back seat across all contestants.
Sajith is the most patriotic. Patriotism relates to the entire nation; not just to one tribe. At least 1/3 of an ethnic group’s support must be obtained for a candidate to be patriotic. There is nothing called “Sinhala patriotism”.
Gota is the most nationalist among serious contestants. Nationalism is not patriotism. Sinhala nationalism is a valid proposition which means the Sinhala view of the nation is championed.
JVP is following an NGO line of thinking. Usual confrontational approach of the JVP is unseen this time. However, JVP cannot fool minority voters with its NGO thinking. It is better for the JVP to assume a nationalist stand.
Mahesh is also following a docile approch to matters. He must be more assertive and nationalist to win a sizable percentage of votes. He is far more popular within the army than Gota but he fails to exploit his popularity.
Sirisena is the deciding factor but the more he delays in endorsing one candidate over the other, the more he becomes irrelevant.
There is the talk of second and third prefereces. They cannot change the winner unless the two leading candidates are very close. If one candidate wins say 48% and the other wins 43%, the winner (48%) will be the winner even after second and third preference count. Simple math. Most people do not seem to understand this.
October 7th, 2019 at 5:52 pm
Although our predictions are useless, I will make mine later (need to spend time to do a proper one).
However, my gut feeling vastly differs from Dilrook. This is because those people who are not slaves to parties or people had a major contribution to 2015 results and they have no reason to comeback without honest explanation and vision.
Who Mahesh is yet to be seen. JVP slave votes are there (5-6%) but I expect more shifts to “others ” group.
I also do not agree to statement “Sajith is the most patriotic”. How about those who were in the forces when Sajith was enjoying luxury of Rajagedara ? I don’t see his “Sri Lanka first” either, he is a show off.
I don’t see the “nationalism” mentioned in others, it is simply “opportunism” in most candidates. No one brought up “One Nation” concept, scared that they are branded “Sinhala” or ” Sri Lankan (=NGO ? slogan)” bias. No one wants to get rid of Palaath Sabha. All have now stolen Naga’s slogans but slogans only no meaningful details how to achieve it. No one will bring ONE LAW, that’s for sure, despite monk’s demands. Monks (only the honest ones) will be utterly disappointed next year.
So I agree with him Sri Lanka is doomed ( until we see some positive policies than regular BANA in the future). That is why people must reject BANA and should press demands.
October 7th, 2019 at 7:14 pm
Dilook’s statistical forecasts always reach very high standard of accuracy.
Sri Lanka as well as most of the other country voters normally make up their minds over a period time before an Election. Last minute musical chairs rarely change that overall mind set. What happened in 2015 was unique due Rev Sobitha factor.
What happened to Nagananda, what happened to funds collected by him? Priyantha Munihath Edirisinghe is contesting from Okkoma Wasiyo Okkoma Rajawaru Sanvidanaya, earlier earmarked by Nagananda.
I think Mahesh is a proxy for Ranil’s group, we will see this as the time goes by.
Anti Sajith UNPers may vote for Mahesh. I don’t think Sajith will get anymore than 31%, unless SLFP join with him. Mahest might command as much as 7%.
Whilst I respect Dilrook’s analysis, I think Gotabaya will reach a target of 53-54%
hands down!. Gota will not be below 53%, at the outset, will improve his standing from that lowest point of 53%.
October 7th, 2019 at 8:01 pm
The sentiment 2 months ago was 53% for GR. It has reduced to 48%. It can go up or down in the next 6 weeks. I don’t ask for reasons which makes people uncomfortable.
I agree most people by now have made up their mind how to vote.
Accuracy depends on what I hear from my paid feelers on ground in all 22 election districts and the district ethnic composition and old voting structure remaining unchanged drastically. If any of these fail, the forecast goes wrong. In my view, it is unlikely these will change.
Once again, I don’t promote one over the other. Purely an academic exercise. Normally I don’t publish these in public forums and only share in closed groups. Let’s see.
October 7th, 2019 at 9:15 pm
If Sri Lankan wish to progress after Presidential elections defeat both Sajith & Gota. Both parties have same old 71 years rotten gang only a New face to cover their sins just to take the voters to another 5 years big ride. 71 years Sri Lankans suffered and just put an end to game.
Think wisely and vote to adjusted to present trends.
Form a new alliance headed by Mahesh as President + Nagananda + Pallawatha come out as Election manifesto with proposed new constitution to implement immediately with reduced number of MPs & all their privileges, small Cabinet, introduced new voting system do way “Manape”. Also if elected Mahesh as President proposed his caretaker Government Ministers Names to get – 51%
GR – 41%
SP – 06%
Others and Error margin – 2%
After Presidential election dissolve the Parliament and have General Election as soon as possible to elect 60 to 70 PMs under new voting system & electro divisions. Sure Sri Lanka will have brighter future from 2020 under new leadership.
October 7th, 2019 at 9:26 pm
Proposed a new alliance headed by Mahesh as President + Nagananda + Pallawatha should add into their manifesto do away defeated candidates rejected by voters coming back as “list MP or Pingutharo ” .
October 7th, 2019 at 10:22 pm
@dhane
You must have slept past few days continuously and two weeks sparingly.
Naga couldn’t even submit the nominations. The ‘Vikalpaya” you are talking about broken weeks ago !
It seems Naga is talking to JVP now. ( This was expected anyway)
I like Dilrook’s “dynamic” nature of the method. Although time is limited, liking may shift with time.
My method is also based on ethnic composition, including a group called “Bentara Gangen Ehaa”. It will take some time to understand the behavior of floating voters because not sure of the split composition of Vikalpaya.
October 7th, 2019 at 10:46 pm
These two old parties have enough robbed money from Sri Lanka government during last many years. These rotten gang had brought over Naga agreed political party and many other registered parties for millions during last few months. We had seen in the media name sake “Sandanaya” formed by these 2 big parties to prevent new comers. Let see ‘Vikalpaya” headed by Mahesh going to give a big run at the end.
October 8th, 2019 at 11:42 pm
Dr. M.D.P. Diassanayake,
In my view, your prediction of 53.54% for Gota is MORE CORRECT than Dilrook’s 48%.
I think that Gota’s votes will EXCEED 60% based PRIMARILY on my judgment of VOTER SENTIMENT!
There will be a veritable TSUNAMI-like change in voting patterns that will overwhelm the classical bean-counting considerations and limitations set by community affiliations and political philosophy.
This SEA-CHANGE will be DRIVEN by a WHOLESALE ABANDONMENT of the inept and treasonous UNP and the opportunistic JVP by Sinhala voters and their EMBRACE of the SLPP. The SLFP voter will vote MASSIVELY for the SLPP irrespective of what its fickle leaders do.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:22 am
My ROUGH GUESS based on PERCEIVED Voter Sentiment
Lakhs of Voters
AFFILIATION PAST (2015/2018) Gota Sajith Anura-Kumara
SLPP/Mahinda 50 -> 50 0 0
UNP 36 -> 6 30 0
SLFP 14 -> 12 1 1
JVP 5 -> 2 0 3
TNA 5 -> 0 5 0
SLMC 1 -> 0 1 0
TOTAL 111 70 37 4
PERCENT 100% 63% 33% 4%
October 9th, 2019 at 4:11 am
@Ananda-USA
Are you OK to lock in those numbers?
We can see who has a better understanding of Sri Lankan affairs after the election.
Ready to accept the challenge?
October 9th, 2019 at 4:30 am
Prize for the winner?
A box of the best American whiskey for Dilrook
A box of the best Australian wines for Ananda
We are watching from the sidelines
Mario Perera, Kadawta
October 9th, 2019 at 4:39 am
But for us, those who are watching the outcome of this contest in the valley of tears, the sunken Titanic that is this country,
What we will tell each other is:
UMBE KATETH PAS…MAGE KATETH PAS
While the drummers behind us will be intoning:
UDA PALAGATHTHATH WATAKKA, BIMA PALAGATHTHATH WATTAKKA
UDA PALAGATHTHATH, BIMA PALAGATHATH,
PUNCHI PUNCHI GEDI WATTAKKA
Mario Perera, Kadawata
October 9th, 2019 at 5:03 am
Very sad day for me. May be for many Sri Lankans. Gota and Duminda on the same stage. Unbelievable.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:18 pm
@Mario
I don’t endorse the top two contestants as both are going to ruin Sri Lanka beyond all hope.
But sadly 85% of voters are fixed voters. They wish for the end of Sri Lanka as we know it. The outcome is mostly their choice.
If the top contestant wins, the country must get ready for another 1970-77 era of economic catastrophe and possible economic sanctions too. That should get cattle voters thinking.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:42 pm
Dear Lionel,
Please be sad for the country, not for the individuals.
BTW is it the correct Duminda ?
October 9th, 2019 at 1:58 pm
@Dilrook AND Ananda
Sadly we are repeating the same story again and again.
I have seen Ananda-USA’s and Charle’s “Landslides” a couple of times already. I am laughing out of Sajith’s Mukhaka when he gives these ‘scientific’ numbers . Charles even went to SriLanka for his “poll” to guarantee us a landslide win.
Real heroes beat the best T-20 team in the world 3-0 when the multi-barrel Malinga is missing. Hope people will learn from cricket.
Please wait a bit for my estimate. You two should not lock in. Wait and observe the youngsters for a week or so.
Things may change for the good.
Ananda is not listening to Buddha. Please remove your Big Thanha and do an estimate like an American. Make a proper calculation like an outsider. Use statistics. Lean from Dilrook. He has “feelers” (without Thanha ?), doing a job. His method is not based on Thanha because his numbers are against his wish.
October 9th, 2019 at 3:54 pm
That was a fantastic victory – a very rare T20 whitewash.
Absent are IPL targeting greedy under-performers (Malinga is not one of them; he does his best.) and other useless pieces.
A young and aggressive team with no fear of bombs and IPL.
Wanindu Hasaranga is the Player of the Series. It is very rare for a newcomer to a series to win it. Consider the value of his wickets, not just the numbers.
You may recall I have been praising him for the past 6 months, way before the World Cup. He is a fabulous all rounder. We have not seen his real skills yet. Despite my repeated appeals he was not included in the 15 player team. He was kept in reserve. As I predicted we had an inglorious exit from the WC. Once again it was based on numbers. Some here predicted a semi final berth and called me a pessimist!
On post-election Sri Lanka this time, pessimists will be proven accurate. Optimists are total fools. Sri Lanka is doomed no matter Gotabaya or Sajith.
We must plan for what comes out of the catastrophe to minimise damage on Sinhala interests. The winner will slaughter Sinhala youth when they rebel against state oppression and economic sanctions. Muslims and Christians will also be slaughtered. Tamils have found the ears of powerful external controllers of the next president and are safe.
October 9th, 2019 at 4:17 pm
@Dilrook
Agree with you on Hasaranga. We should have taken Kumara too.
Malinga is still the best bowler we have. I said this before. But he is the worst captain ever ! So, what is the solution ?
I don’t agree with you on his attitude. He will not play his best, if captaincy is not given.
October 9th, 2019 at 4:33 pm
Dilrook,
What about you?
Are you ready to LOCK-IN YOUR numbers and accept your error as a lack of understanding of Sri Lankan affairs?
My numbers are a ROUGH GUESS based on my assessment of CURRENT VOTER SENTIMENT through contact with people at the Grass Roots level in Sri Lanka, but acknowledge that SENTIMENTS can be fickle!
Gota’s margin of victory may be EVEN larger!
October 9th, 2019 at 4:43 pm
Mario Perera from Kadawatha,
Thank you so much for VOLUNTEERING to SPONSOR a WINNER’S GIFT of a box of American whiskey for Dilrook if he wins, or a box of Australian wine if I win.
While I am reluctant to specify a gift, a case of 24 bottles would be VERY NICE!
I REALLY APPRECIATE your generosity and inspiring commitment to keeping alive the “Spirits” of all those who blog at LankaWeb!
You represent the best of Kadawata! Three cheers for Mario!
October 9th, 2019 at 4:51 pm
Randeniyage,
Yes, please do wait until AFTER Nov 16th, then you can be DEAD SURE that your “PREDICTIVE” estimate is spot-on!
Come on, lay down your ESTIMATE NOW and assume the RISK, or maintain your silence without seeking unfair advantage!
If you are attracted by Mario’s EXTREMELY generous offer, remember that not only the future, but also its benefits, belong to the RISK TAKERS!
October 9th, 2019 at 5:51 pm
Ananda,
Thanks, I will do it when I find the time to pull back my spreadsheets , go into a trans and do it. At the moment a bit busy on some other form of serious calculations.
I don’t know whether you remember your good friend Lorenzo’s bet of cutting a body part.
I am not onto those things or Mario’s liquor offer, away from it for 20 years now. But I will pay you a visit if I loose, you pay me a visit if you loose. Only thing is I have not done any clacs yet so, yours and mine may be the same, I don’t know.
But, more importantly apply some pressure to your predicted winners, otherwise you will be very rich but extremely poor in your deathbed !
October 9th, 2019 at 6:39 pm
@Ananda-USA
Agree.
The closest estimate wins.
Both our estimates are based on current sentiment. It can change a little (not too much) and we are free to change before the election.
For the record, planners from both camps have requested my district-wise breakdown and I have provided. Some have forgiven me for a stuff up of the LG election forecast which is not a national election and I have never forecasted for anything below the national level before. That too was a typo that switched the new party SLPP with the UNP. I used the same template for the 2015 parliamentary election where the new party was UNFGG.
October 9th, 2019 at 6:48 pm
On Mario’s comment, you have to read between the lines. As always, sharp, witty and to the point.
October 9th, 2019 at 6:56 pm
Randeniyage,
You have to do it within 1 day from today, based on the CURRENT situation, or I will not accept it as timely.
TOO LATE is TOO BAD!
October 9th, 2019 at 7:02 pm
Dilrook,
Yes, I accept, the CLOSER of the two estimates we have ALREADY issued (yours 48% for Gota, mine 63% for Gota) wins the race!
You can revise your figures, and I reserve the right to do so as well, but what counts are the ABOVE ESTIMATES we have ALREADY issued, based on the CURRENT situation.
No other estimates will count towards the win.
Thanks for not being WISHY-WASHY and shooting straight!
Win or Lose, it will not affect two old men! It is not whether we win or lose but how we play the game!
October 9th, 2019 at 7:35 pm
Randeniyage,
“Ananda is not listening to Buddha. Please remove your Big Thanha and do an estimate like an American. Make a proper calculation like an outsider. Use statistics. Lean from Dilrook. He has “feelers” (without Thanha ?), doing a job. His method is not based on Thanha because his numbers are against his wish.”
Stop writing BS.
Please leave the Lord Buddha and Thanha out of the discussion. You are ascribing your own standards, biases and motives to others.
Your logic seems to say
1. If one predicts against one’s own wishes that is likely to be devoid of Thanha!
2. If one predicts aligned with one’s own wishes that is likely to be because of Thanha!
So, truth and the facts on the ground have nothing to do with it?
I may be biased, my data base maybe too narrow, and my analysis may be flawed, but Thanha has NOTHING to do with it.
Many times people who IGNORE or UNDERESTIMATE VOTER SENTIMENT in times of great uncertainty make totally WRONG predictions, and miscall elections!
Dilrook has been TOTALLY wrong in his predictions a few times. For example, his LG election prediction was way off. Yes, I forgive him for that ….. he did his best with the information he had, but his error was in UNDER ESTIMATING Voter Sentiment.
I too was wrong on the result of the Jan 8, 2015 election which was very close, with Mahinda losing only by a few hundred thousand votes. That happened, because too many brainwashed Sinhala Buddhists voted against him. With an election that close, it is HARD TO READ Voter Sentiment.
The Sinhala Buddhists who crossed over are remorseful now with 20/20 hindsight, but the damage is already done to our progress and security as a sovereign Nation.
The VOTER SENTIMENT is LOUD and CLEAR in the coming Presidential Election on Nov 16. Ignore it to your own peril!
October 9th, 2019 at 8:23 pm
@Ananda
I will try and do it tonight. I have some urgent matters at the moment.
“Voter Sentiment” is not something you obtain by reading biased media. It is what the voter really feel.
You got it wrong not once but twice, as I remember. Your predictions your out but HUGE margin. When I find time I will dig it out. It is there in B&W.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:42 pm
Randeniyage,
Please PROVE it.
October 10th, 2019 at 5:30 am
OK. My very rough estimate at the moment. will be revising in 1 week’s time.
GR – 44%
SP – 33%
Others – 23%
Error margin – within approx. +/- 1%. SLFP is not contesting but included in GR. Ananda has to revise his.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:10 pm
Randeniyage,
Thanks for chiming in; better late than never.
No, I don’t have to and I wont revise anything.
My method is different from yours. I have assigned voters affiliated with each main party to the three main candidates: Gota, Sajith and Anura Kumara, neglecting all other parties and candidates to keep things simple.
For example, SLFP’s 14 lakhs of voters were split 12 lakhs for Gota, 1 Lakh for Sajith and 1 lakh for Anura Kumara.
So, now we have the following predictions for Gota’s voter percentage:
Ananda-USA 63%
M.D.P D 53.54%
Dilrook 48%
Randeniyage 44%
It will be fun to see who wins among all four of us, and who wins between the original challenge pair: Dilrook and Ananda-USA.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:23 pm
Thanks Gentlemen.
Five weeks to go.
If the alternatives win 23%, that is a seismic shift in voting. I have to find a new method. So far the voting pattern since 1947 has not changed. 85% cattle voters and only 15% floating voters. Anyway it is a very promising thing if it happens.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:29 pm
Ananda,
There will be no fun. Lower the margin get better for the country because at least new promises may come up.
Higher the margins gets, “District Devolution”, “Reconciliation”, “Senates”, “Highways to Jaffna” and all other forms of “Deshapremi” proposals will come up.
Another BIG thing in waiting will be another “Jathika Aanduwa” so that a healthy 150 minsters can be maintained.
Whatever the margin, county will be FEDERAL, (same as USA or AUSTRALIA but these countries have not specific areas for races or religions). Wilpattu will be further destroyed, Kaattankudy will be extended further. People will be paying huge loans to keep the Princes and Princesses royal and entertained.
Wait and see until Rishard, Hizbulla and Vigneshwaran etc join back their ex-friends and Duminda Silva is given presidential pardon to be the baron.
rather than Whisky of Wine people will be drinking Glyposate.
Please start pressing for removal of Federal constitution , One Law demands than guessing the margin.
October 10th, 2019 at 7:43 pm
Dilrook,
The election tomorrow in ELPITIYA should provide some indication of the current Voter Sentiment in Sri Lanka.
Please remain tuned!
October 10th, 2019 at 8:50 pm
Dilrook,
I allowed 30% shift to Rajapaksas. That is a lot. Normally, in modern democracies that won’t happen. But ours is “wedawasm” society.
Then I allowed the “225+1 ” FACTOR. That is all.
Elpitiya will not say anything. It is down south. Last time (2015) nearly 60% already Rajapaksas in the South. So, will be at least 70%.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:38 pm
@Ananda-USA
Elpitiya PS election is not representative as it is a Sinhala only area.
In 2011 MR’s party won 58% at the Elpitiya PS election. It meant MR was going to lose the presidential election next! (Assuming Elpitiya Sinhala voters are representative of Sinhala voters througout the country).
MR won 58% of Sinhala votes at the 2015 presidential election and lost.
So you cannot take the sheer percentage as representative. Assuming it is representative, SLPP must win at least 63% of the vote in Elpitiya PS (not seats) to predict its win at the presidential election. Anything less means defeat for Gota (assuming it is representative).
I hope you understand the math.
As an easy example consider this. Suppose Murali scored 1 run with the bat and all others scored 5 runs each. Would that be a sufficient score? No. Regular batsmen must do the heavy lifting. Otherwise the team loses. Knowing the north will be a thumping defeat for Gota, he must score big in the south. He is not a national leader. He is only a mono-tribal leader.
This was how I predicted since 2012 that MR was going to lose the next presidential election.
Now I’m giving away my secrets.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:51 pm
As I said, to reach my figure 44% Elpitiya win shall be 70%+. If not it will be less than 44% overall.
Actually being lazy I allowed the 30% throughout.
I will do a better one for the interest, later taking into account later developments.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:53 pm
No. The magic number is 63%.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:43 pm
BREAKING NEWS!
After the signing of the SLFP-SLPP Agreement to SUPPORT Gota, 26 SLFP MPs are meeting with Sajith to discuss getting Nominations in the Parliaentary Elections scheduled for early 2020 in exchange for supporting Sajith NOW in the Presidential election!
They fear that the New Allliance with the SLPP will DENY THEM Nominations in 2020 Parliamentary Elections because the SLPP will want to field their own candidates displacing SLFP candidates!
ONCE AGAIN, POLITICIANS PROVE that their GREED for POWER exceeds their LOYALTY to their Constituency! They are saying in EFFECT, to HELL with REPRESENTING you and SAVING the Motherland from the Yamapalanaya, we need to PRESERVE our OWN INTERESTS!
But, they forget that the Voters of their Constituencty will not see it that way, and will punish them at the HUSTINGS in the future election!
TRAITORS, GO & JOIN the DNF/Sajith, and may you COME CRASHING DOWN in DEFEAT in 2020 as the VOTERS EXACT THEIR REVENGE!
They ALSO FORGET that the SLFP rank and File is NOT WITH THE PARTY Leadership EVEN NOW; they are with GOTA & the TRUE PATRIOTS!
SUCH IDIOCY!
October 11th, 2019 at 12:03 pm
BREAKING NEWS from ELPITIYA!
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna has secured an LANDSLIDE Victory in the ELPITIYA Pradeshiya Sabha Election today October 11, 2015) securing ALL 17 Kotashayas!
Here are the Primary VOTE STATISTICS:
SLPP 23,372 (56.7%)
UNP 10,113 (24.6%)
SLFP 5,273 (12.8%)
JVP 2435 (5.91%)
TOTAL 41,193 (100%)
”
NOW for a “Crude Analysis” of “VOTER SENTIMENT” that I have been commenting about:
SLPP+SLFP “Gota Votes” 28,645 (69.5%)
UNP Sajith Votes” 10,113 (24.6%)
JVP “Anura Kumara Votes ” 2435 (5.91%)
TOTAL 41,193 (100%)
I realize that Elpitiya voters are NOT FULLY REPRESENTATIVE of ALL VOTERS in a Nationwide Presidential Election, but COMPARE these percentages to my PREDICTED VALUES of Votes for Gota(63%), Sajith(30%) and Anura-Kumara (4%) in the Presidentiasl Election.
Please accept this set of results as a CRUDE INDICATION of the VOTER SENTIMENT Nationwide TODAY in Sri Lanka!
To the INEPT CRIMINALS of the Yamapalanaya I say ……
“You CAN FOOL ALL of the PEOPLE SOME of the time,
You CAN FOOL SOME of the PEOPLE ALL of the time,
But, you CAN-NEVER FOOL ALL of the PEOPLE ALLof the time!”
A PEACEFUL & DEMOCRATIC Bastille Day has arrived!
Jayaweva, DESHAPREMINI, Jayaweva!
October 11th, 2019 at 12:15 pm
Out of 53,383 ELIGIBLE voters in Elpitiya, 41,193 VOTED!
That is, 77.2% of those ELIGIBLE have VOTED!
Jayawewa, Deshapremini, Jayawewa!
October 11th, 2019 at 12:32 pm
Dilrook,
You said ” SLPP must win at least 63% of the vote in Elpitiya PS (not seats) to predict its win at the presidential election.”
Why only SLPP? Why not the SLPP-Led Sandhanaya, or better still ALL those who vote for Gota?
As you can see from my “Crude Analysis” numbers, 69.5% of Elpitiya Voters did “vote for Gota”, as you wanted in your own statement that I quoted above!
Ready to change you Prediction, now?
Better not, there is HOPE for you yet because I AGREE that “Elpitiya is NOT REPRESENTATIVE of ALL of Sri Lanka”; the Presidential race numbers could be EVEN BETTER for Gota!
You and I, we hang high up there IMPALED on the CROSSES of our “Predictions”.
But, don’t lose HOPE Dilrook, because as they say, “Hope Springs Eternal in the Human Breast” and politics is fickle!
Serious as the issue is, please ENJOY the TITILLATION, you can’t BUY this amount of FUN for ANY AMOUNT of money!
October 11th, 2019 at 3:02 pm
97.3% of Elpitiya population is Sinhala. It is essentially a Sinhala only LG.
Both Rajapaksa party and UNP show a drop since 2011.
SLPP failed to win the crucial 58% required to defeat Sajith. SLPP needs 63% of the Sinhala vote to win 50%. Nowhere near. Now they are only 56%.
UNP crashed but UPFA voters hold the key. Don’t assume UPFA voters will vote for SLPP just because UPFA MPs join SLPP. It doesn’t work that way.
JVP showed it still holds 6% of the Sinhala vote.
Elpitiya final result.
SLPP 23372 – 56.3%
UNP 10113 – 24.3%
UPFA 5273 – 12.7%
JVP 2435 – 5.8%
SLPP failed to get Mahinda’s losing 58% of the Sinhala vote in 2015.
UPFA voters (not politicians) and Tamil and Muslim voters are the kingmakers at the presidential election.
October 11th, 2019 at 4:07 pm
Actually you have to add UPFA votes to SLPP = That is 80% votes are in favor of SLPP if you extrapolated to Presidential.
However 12.7% Sirisena slaves do not like SLPP what is why they went to another party. Therefore, I would add at least 1/3 of that to SLPP, because the really dislike UNP and JVP anyway,
Based on this , Elpitiya results become
SLPP 56.3+ 1/3 of 12.7 = 60.5 %
UNP 24.3 + 1/3 of 12.7 = 28.5 %
Others 5.8+ 4.2 = 10%
If I used my method , I am getting 62.8% to SLPP ( which is the same as Dilrook’s number). Therefore , I agree with Dilrook , they are short of expected shift towards them to secure the guessed 44% but even if 44% become 42% still a win for the American.
October 11th, 2019 at 4:25 pm
@ Dilrook
UPFA voters may have voted for their members of the previous Pradeshiya Sabha. These are simply “person” liking only.
In a presidential election, it will be completely different.
If you take the 58% 2015 vote as Mahinda’s you get a number of 23892 votes, which is more than 23372 he got yesterday. This means he has lost 500 votes. So, you are right, if those Sirisena votes are gone to others, Mahinda should loose in the end.
October 11th, 2019 at 7:08 pm
Randeniyage,
Add at least 2/3 of UPFA votes to SLPP, not just 1/3! You are WAY OFF the mark!
My “CROSSOVER VOTE” ratio’s have a factual basis related to District level poll data and personally acquired grass roots level data input to a numerical model.
I simplified the result for ease of explaining the underlying driving force of VOTER SENTIMENT to others.
In effect, in my model of the Presidential race, the CROSSOVER VOTES reflecting Voter Sentiment went this way:
UPFA votes split 85.7% to Gota, 7.15% to Sajith, 7.15% to Anura-Kumara.
JVP votes split 40% to Gota, NONE to Sajith, 60% to Anura-Kumara.
UNP votes split 16.7% to Gota, 83.3% to Sajith, NONE to Anura-Kumara.
TNA and SLMC votes ALL went to Sajith.
SLPP votes ALL went to Gota.
The other parties and candidates did not significantly affect this overall result. It also reflects that attempts to DIVIDE and DIVERT the VOTE for Gota by introducing more and more candidates will FAIL because VOTERS are aware of that TRICK and will REFUSE to be thus MANIPULATED against their ESSENTIAL INTERESTS this time!
In this way, VOTER SENTIMENT will drive people to CROSS PARTY LINES and vote 63% for Gota, 33% for Sajith, and 4% for Anura-Kumara handing Gota VICTORY with 63% of the vote, in the Presidential race.
October 11th, 2019 at 7:23 pm
SLOPPY cannot get any more Sinhala votes. This is the maximum (56%). If they want to win they must concentrate on Tamil and Muslim voters.
October 11th, 2019 at 9:02 pm
@Ananda
If you give 1/2 it is reasonable. Then it will climb to 63% , which is Dilrook’s critical figure.
But remember this is Elpitiya. This not Sri Lanaka. If 63% is correct mine drops to 42%.
What is the reason 12.7% voting UPFA , not SLPP ? It is impossible that they like Sirisena.
They don’t like the faces of Basil, Ugly face of Mahindananda, Bandula (Rs 2500), even Basil ( and his house in Malwana without an owner), Vasudeva (Pakaya), Gammanpilla ( cheater). There are reasons.
These people cannot build this country. Another reason is clearly visible nepotism.
He has not denounced US citizenship yet, which is a huge factor and scary. He has a duty to publish it everywhere ! If not published it is not there! People must demand him to show it. Laws must be changed never to allow this in the future.
Regardless of all the above, proper , clear patriotic policies such as
1. No Federal ( remove 13A)- One country
2. No minority and religious laws
3. No loan based spending spree
should come up very very quickly, for us to see some light.
At the moment it is gloomy. Extremely gloomy !
October 11th, 2019 at 9:06 pm
@Dilrook,
You are WRONG when you mistakenly assert “SLOPPY cannot get any more Sinhala votes. This is the maximum” (56%).”
It is WRONG because, the SLPP will get more than 56% because of significant numbers of UNP and JVP crossovers. Furthermore, ALMOST ALL of the UPFA votes will be for Gota!!
October 11th, 2019 at 9:17 pm
Randeniyage,
Only YOUR outlook is GLOOMY; most Sri Lankans I know are optimistic and positive about the Nov 16 Election as their DAY OF LIBERATION from the Yamapalanaya!
You keep harping on things that have already been DONE BY Gota to the satisfaction of the relevant authorities including the Supreme Court!
Given your bias, you will not be satisfied with ANYTHING that Gota or any other person, including me, can say. You are on a campaign to DISCREDIT and UNDERMINE Gota.
Let us wait for Nov 16, and see what happens.
I urge LankaWeb READERS to IGNORE the NITPICKING propaganda of Dilrook and Randeniyage against Gota in their LAST DITCH ATTEMPTS to SAVE the Yamapalanaya!
October 12th, 2019 at 12:28 am
@Ananda-USA
No. People have already made up their mind. 56% is their maximum Sinhala vote.
Take my point positively. Not negatively.
Now focus on winning Muslim and Tamil votes. It is for your own good. Otherwise 2015 will repeat.
October 12th, 2019 at 12:59 am
@Ananda
You asked me to prove. See below, you were out by a HUGE margin.
Your prediction strangely remains the same 63%
“http://www.lankaweb.com/news/items/2015/01/06/towards-a-mahinda-victory/”
Ananda-USA Says:
January 6th, 2015 at 10:01 pm
I have said it before, and I’ll say it again: 62.5% for MR, 37.5% for MS!
Jayawewa, Mahinda Rajapaksa Janadhipathithumani!
October 12th, 2019 at 2:49 am
Ananda-USA
”Jayawewa, Mahinda Rajapaksa Janadhipathithumani!”
Mahinda Rajapaksa Janadhipathithumani? I think the ‘jayawewa’ is misplaced. MaRa is not the candidate…it is GoRa.
There is something that perturbs me immeasurably as regards Ananda’s uncompromising support for GoRa.
A presidency of GoRa means rule by the Raja clan. This means that the party is redundant They just become ‘hands up’ babies like in the song: hands up, baby hands up, give me your heart, give give me your heart, give me give all your love…” Such is Trump land today. So will also be GoRa land if Ananda’s desires are realized.
What is most troubling is that Ananda who has surrendered his soul unconditionally to MaRa and GoRa has under his very nose the catastrophic nature of Trump clan rule in the USA, where the Trump clan has dragged the USA to the mire in very field.
From what we already know from the four year clan rule of MaRa, that will also be the pattern for GoRa.The clan cannot drag the country any further into the mire as the ‘thrice blessed land’ is already wallowing in it. the novelty will be that MaRa an GoRa will make the people unashamedly OORA.
If that is what karma has destined this land to be, then so be it. We already hear the wailing of Mother Lanka: apata puthey magak nethey.
Mario Perera, Kadawata
October 12th, 2019 at 4:52 am
If you simply consider UNP votes , 1999 = 37.3% , 2005= 39.31% , 2010 = 30.95%(Fonseka) and 2015= 39.78 %(Sirisena).
I am taking Bentara-Elpitiya Presidential election results.
Lowest UNP has gone down was to 31% just after the war ended.
If you consider the LG election as an equivalent , then UNP votes gone down to a record low of 24.3%.
Therefore, Dilrook has to agree that UNP Sajith is facing heavier election defeat this time than ever before.
Thus my all island prediction of 33% for Sajith against 43% of Dilrook can be compared. I am expecting that most part voters (70%) who were fed up of Rajapaksas last time (2015) will remain fed up and go to Vikalpaya.
Reason for this is,
1. They never accepted this as their wrong but blaming voters.
2. They never brought up any concrete promises to correct those mistakes. ( eg. Wilpattu , North and East)
You can’t keep on fooling the voter. UNP will learn a big lesson this time, but they will also try to fool people in 2025. This will continue until “OTHERS” will win one day, after EELAAM and HISBULLAHSTAN is given.
BTW Hizbullah is supporting SLPP and they are taking it with both hands.