Dr Sudath Gunasekara Mahanuwara

My prediction on the August 5th General Election

Landslide victory for the SLPP and a white wash for the UNP and nemesis for all communal political parties and Independent candidates

What the people of this country should do at the upcoming election to ensure this reality

Before I present my write up on the above topic I give here my prediction made on the last Presidential Election on 14 Oct 2019 in an email I sent to Mr Gothabhaya Rajapaksa.

Your victory as well as that of the country is a foregone conclusion. I am repeating, you will be definitely starting with at least 65 lakhs the minimum that is what the SLPP, UPF and SLFP got at the 2018 Local Government Elections. Looking at the present trend no one should be surprised even if it exceeds 70 lahks”

(This was the opening passage of an email I sent to Gothabhaya on 14.Oct 2019)

The accuracy of my prediction was proved   to the letter when he polled 6,924,255 votes and won that election with a thumping majority and I take pride in that forecast as I was the only man who said so. Even my teacher at the University, an internationally acclaimed eminent scholar emeritus Professor Gerald Peiris expressed his reservations on my conclusion. But I persistently maintained my conviction and finally it was proved correct.

Similarly I am making this prediction this time too on the upcoming General election after making an in-depth study of the political situation on ground by listening to people in the work place, paddy field and on the street. Changes bound to occur in the behavior of the electorate between now and the 5th of August also has been taken in to consideration in arriving at this conclusion. The rousing welcome received by the President at the SLPP’s inaugural election meeting held at Anuradhapura today and all other places he went is good forecast of the prediction I am making in this note.

Dawn of a historic land mark in the political history of this Island nation

I opine the next General Election is going to be an important land mark in the political history of this Island nation for the following reasons. It will also mark a turning point in the post-Independence period of Sri Lankan politics

The beginning of this turning point will dawn with this political revolution that will emerge with the election results on the 6th of August.

A political Revolution

1The SLPP will get over 175 out of 225 seats in the next Parliament (Eg 155 elected and 20 national list)

 2 The divided and disarrayed UNP (R+P camps together) will settle around 35 the most (elected + national list)

3 TNA 12 elected and 1 National list member

4 JVP will get eliminated from the political map of Sri Lanka

5 Others not belonging to 1 to 3 and sometime Ape Janabala Vegaya.

(These figures might slightly vary due to the fact there is always a margin of   error in statistical calculations. But I maintain the overall picture want be much different)

6 All independent candidates will lose and even their deposits will be confiscated

7 The Old UNP will disappear from the political scene in this country and this Election will also mark the end of political carriers of many sitting politicians including those of Ranil and Premadasa, Champika, Rajita, Welgama, Vijitamini Zoysa and Kiriella and many others of the old stock.

8 The old SLFP will emerge as the only national political Party in Sri Lanka under Mahinda Raapaksa if he accepts it cap as the new President

9 Sajit’s camp might get few seats more than Ranil’s camp with the support of Muslims but Ranil will remain as the leader of Opposition in the new Parliament as well with the support of the TNA

10 This Election will also open the doors for a new Political Party completely under a new leadership that stands for full freedom from all foreign intervention and that rejects the original UNP ideology of multi- racial, multi-national and multi linguistic etc. accepted by D.S. Senanayaka in 1947 to get the so-called Independence from Briton and also that  uphold one nation, one country and one Law concept among such other conditions that restore pre-1815  Sinhale geared to take over the country, on a day on the day the new Government fails to meet the full aspirations of the Sinhala majority. But that will be an uphill task for two reasons. The first is the problem of finding a suitable national leader and the second is to formulate a more pro- National and inward looking Patriotic agenda than that of the present SLPP under President Gotabahya Rajapaksa. 

A political vacuum and the need for another new national political party

The demise of UNP at this election will create a big political vacuum. The need for such a new national political party is called for as both traditional parties, the UNP and the SLFP are no more there. Although there is a possibility of SLFP emerging with a new lease of life if MR accepts it’s leadership. But there is no likelihood of emerging a new political party on the old UNP model.  The new Party should be an alternative Sinhala Buddhist national Political force to the SLPP that is more patriotic, inward looking and village based, to take over the country,, when one day the SLPP fails in its duty by the Nation by not making radical changes, the Sinhala Buddhist have been yearning for 72 long years since 1948. The new party invariably will have to be built on the Anagarika Dharmapala concept of the Sinhala nation and the Sinhala State.

The SLPP will however govern the country under the present patriotic regime at least for 15 years. That is at least 10 under GR and 5 years under his successor. I predict this overall result on the basis of two sets of mutually exclusive factors coming in to play at this election, one negative and the other positive. The most significant feature of this political revolution is that the interaction of both these diametrically opposed factors will have negative and disastrous effects on the UNP vote base as a political party. Vituperative and mudslinging at each other, devoid of any substance  or constructive political dialogue by these two Camps (Ranil & Sajith) infested with corrupt, baseless, verbose and vicious political misfits like Sajit, Rajita, Champika, Vijitamuni Zoysa and Kiriella and extreme communalists like Hakim and Badurdeen on one side and Bank robbers, traitors like Ranil, Mangala, Ravi, Range Bandara and jokers like Ranjan Ramanayaka and Mervin Mervin Silva will enhance the chances of the SLPP to unexpected levels, recording a landslide victory never expected by any, including even those in the SLPP and the President’s Office.

Going by the trend it is very unlikely what the SLPP polled at the presidential Election will get reduced. As such when SLPP starts with 6,924,255 the minimum they polled at the Presidential Election, the UNP will be left only something around 2,700,000 (5,564,234–2,900.000 Tamil+ and  Muslim votes) to be divided between R and S factions. It is assumed that even these 2,700,000 might get reduced even to about 2,500,000, due to the prevailing confusion and infighting between the two camps and the overall apathy among the UNP voters. That might also definitely lead to lower turn out of UNP voters at the polling stations resulting in more SLPP candidates getting elected while the number of UNP members will get drastically reduced.

First let us look at the negative factors

1This election is held after a period of 5 years of complete anarchy and political and economic mismanagement in this country under Sirisena–Ranil- Karu three headed Government. Going by the present situation in the country, the UNP could be compared to a sinking and wrecking ship in mid seas caught by a Tsunami, sans a captain to rescue and navigate it in the proper direction for safety. The SLPP will bag the benefits of all these confusions thereby increasing its majority in Parliament.

2 This election is also held at a time when the country is beset with extremely serious crises in a plethora of political, economic and social fields and the collapse of national security and law and order never witnessed before in this country. 

3 The country is going through a serious economic depression after the nation’s Central Bank was robbed by the then ruling UNP, manipulated by none other than the Prime Minister of that so-called Government and subsequently the whole country paralyzed by extremist Muslim terrorist attacks on the economic and religious nerve centers of the country, now in complete disarray and reached its lowest growth level in its 72 years of Independence. On the top of it is a time when the whole  world is undergoing one of the most difficult and unpredictable future due to the world wide Covid 19 pandemic that has almost crippled the whole world and brought it virtually on its knees almost to a non-returnable situation.

4 The country’s economy is also undergoing one of the most difficult times ever in its history more or less facing a national crisis level with no agricultural or industrial production and nor exports, and where the main foreign exchange inflow channels like foreign employment has almost got dried up and printed money has to be pumped in billions to run the country.

5 Scanty domestic FE reserves and worldwide economic depression and limitations and constraints on imports due to global restriction on shipping and international trade mechanisms has badly affected both exports and imports

6 Meanwhile continued interference and competition by powerful countries to take control of the Island’s strategic situation on the great E-W trade route in the Indian Ocean in view of its importance in the context of emerging supremacy of the Indo-Pacific zone in world politics and by various International organizations agencies and countries like UK. Germany, Canada and Norway driven by LTTE Diaspora elements hostile to this country that are trying to create disunity within the country for example between the various ethnic and religious groups also have created many a problem to this country.

 The positive side

1 In spite of this darker side, after 72 years of So-called Independence on the other hand, we as a nation have got a patriotic and strong Sinhala Buddhist Statesman in President Gothabhaya Rajapaksa, as a man with a clear vision and a mission who has a proven capacity  to successfully face all these challenges of  this multifaceted conundrum and take this country out of the Augean mess it has been put in to by all politicians who are supposed to have ruled this country for the past 72 years since the so-called Independence. 

None of them knew the emptiness of fake Independence they got in 1948. As I see it none of them knew that the kind of Independence given by the British was only a transfer of continuation of the same British mechanism of governance to a set of local kalu Suddhas to run the country as their accredited agents. This is exactly what, we are doing even today. But the politicians call it Independence and Democracy.

 Meanwhile the true Bhumiputras of this country charged with a sense of patriotism, that is the Sinhala majority both Buddhists and Catholics have joined hands to elect Gothabhaya Rajapaksa as their newly found Messiah. They expects the new President to make this country a fully pledge Independent and sovereign State after this election.  This perhaps is the priority number one the people of this country expect from him. This long overdue political strategy forms the cornerstone of all the rest, as an Independent, sovereign and free country.

Is  Diyasena Born at last?

Going by his past record as the Secretary of the Ministry of Defense (2005-2015) as to how he defeated the LTTE and how he converted Colombo to be recognized as the best City in South Asia within four years after the war are enough testimonies for his ability and leadership as a task master. His peerless success in these two fields almost made him the Sinhala Buddhist benevolent leader overnight; the nation was desperately looking for seven decades. That is why the whole nation almost unanimously got him elected as the 8th President of this Island nation with 6,924,255 votes that gave him an unprecedented majority of 1,360,016 in spite of numerous false and vicious conspiracies and intrigues’ relentlessly deployed against him until the last moment by anti-national ant-Sinhala forces both from within the country and outside the shores to prevent him from getting even nominations. All such attempts were successfully foiled and finally truth prevailed, justice won and he got him elected as the 8th President of this country to the overwhelming joy of Sinhala nation.

The way how he has conducted in office as well as in personal life since he was sworn in front of the Ruwanwelimahaseya and his short but dignified and patriotic speech from the hallowed precincts of the Great Stupa reminded me ancient traditions of our great Kings who swore in in front of the Mahasangha to rule the Lankan Kingdom according to the Dasaraaja Dhamma. How he set about thereafter by ordering not to exhibit his photo in Government offices, reducing his staff, and even security and banning all state tamasa, reducing the Cabinet to 17 and his simple dress and manners won the admiration and the hearts of the masses of this country. How he managed the Covid 19 pandemic when even countries like USA have miserably failed, has already made him the most outstanding national leader the post Independent Sri Lanka has produced. The majority in the country are unanimous on this consensus. For them he is already a national idol and a hero as well. For the poor and those deprived of their daily bread due to the Covid 19 disaster, the food basket and the 5000 payment given was manna from heaven in their difficult times.  As for me I see in him the legendary Diyasena, eulogized in Perakumbasirita by Sri Thotagamuve Rahula Thera is born at last to rescue this thrice blessed Punyabhuumi, by Lord Buddha.

Patriotic and honest Sinhala Buddhist task master cum – true Statesman

All these actions on his part have convinced the masses that at last after 72 years of so-called Independence they have got a Patriotic and honest Sinhala Buddhist task master cum – true Statesman of proven ability and unblemished character beyond any doubt in Gothabahay Rajapaksa, as the Head of State.

2 At the same time there is an unprecedented emerging unity among the Sinhala nation from west to East and North to South and from the sea to the top of Samangira encompassing the whole country sans all their differences like caste, creed and religion as one nation.

3 A towering sense of belonging together is also emerging among the masses throughout the country as one nation getting polarizes around the exemplary leadership of Gothabha and Mahinda inspired by the support of the Maha Sangha right round the country in unison and Catholic clergy headed by His Eminence Cardinal Malcom Ranjit

4 The splitting of the UNP (a dead party in any case) in to two parts under two Kalusuddhas, Ruinil as someone has named him and Sajit a round peg in a square hole, both of whom have no leadership qualities and don’t feel the pulses of the masses as both of them being direct products of the Colombian society, do not know what Sri Lanka is. Both of the think Colombo is Sri Lanka. They are for personal gain and glory rather than the concern for the common people. This Colombian leadership of right Royal College products has left the grass root UNPers disgusted, dismayed, frustrated and high and dry. Majority of UNPers have already realized that hanging on to out dated UNP will not take them anywhere under the prevailing situation.

In sum all of them know pretty well that there is virtually no UNP as an alternative Political party that can come to power in the foreseeable future. It is already dead and buried under six feet or more, thanks to Ruinil and Sajit Premadasa. No one will hear about the UNP after 5th of August.

5 The patriotic younger generation looking for change and new hopes getting attracted by this new leadership qualities displayed by Gota have already got rallied round him

6 Nationwide hope and the dream for political stability under a joint partnership between the proven and able leadership qualities of the Rajapaksa brothers specially the charismatic MR and proactive and dynamic Gota the task master who does not tolerate humbug and who has aptly proved his capacity in his war against the savages LTTE, as the Defense Sec of the country and as the President of the country from the day he was elected as  the President have made the people confident that at last they have got the leadership they were looking for decades who can rescue this country out of the political, economic and Social mess in to which successive Government have dumped it.

7 The newly emerging wave of unprecedented Sinhala Buddhist nationalism and the sense of patriotism  gathering momentum around this new leadership supported by the three Forces, Professionals, Civil Servants and the Six National Forces sanga, veda, guru, Govi-kamkaru and Ranaviru and the youth votes around the country brimming with new hope like a multi barrel war machine rolling across the battle field is taking the lead  for nation building under the new President.

 At the same time we see all round auspicious sings like anti-national elements getting caught and exposed daily clearing the way for the nation to march forward without any obstacles. In this most encouraging and welcome backdrop, the Pohottuwa will emerge victorious in a landslide victory unheard and unseen in the political history of post Independent Sri Lanka.

My prediction on the 2019 Presidential Election

I predicted Gota will get 69-70 lakhs at the last Presidential poll and he polled 6,924,255. Based on the same argument at this election the SLPP should get it increased to at least 80 lakhs of votes taking in to account the ground reality factors like the defections from the UNP, JVP, Tamil and Muslim votes and new youth segment. Even the minorities who are fed up with their own communal minded extremist politicians who have ruined them over the decades without doing any service to them are seriously looking for a complete change in Sri Lanka politics. Therefore the SLPP should bag at least 155 out of 196 elected seats and it will therefore should bag at least 20 national list pin slots as well, making the total to stand around 175. The UNP disarrayed factions together are very unlikely to get even 25 lakhs this time as against the 5,564,239 Premadasa polled at the Presidential election. Both UNP camps will get 2,500,000 less than what Premadasa got at the Presidential election. This is the Tamil and Muslim and the JVP  components UNP will not get this time.

1 A substantial number out of UNP voters will also vote with the Pohottuwa this time as they are convinced that there is no point in betting a losing horse. Majority of disgusted UNP hard liners will boycott elections and that will also drastically reduce the UNP votes. The JVP as usual will get eliminated at this election for their sins they have committed to this nation and they are also very unlikely to get any national list slots either. The chances of UNP getting Thodamans votes is also not there at this election as Mahinda has played his cards well, the SLPP will get a majority of Estate Tamil votes. With Digambarans help Premadasa might get at least one seat more than Ranils faction on the overall. Even then it is Ranil who will get elected as the Leader of the opposition as TNA will support him. Therefore Sajit and his band of  Mahadenamutta’s golayas’ will not get even that.

 On the other hand even if those brainless Sinhala Budhhist UNPers who are suffering from chronic and incurable UNP constipation syndrome fail to realize the gravity and the seriousness of the crime they are going to commit against the Sinhala nation and the Sinhala Buddhist civilization in this country by voting an anti-Sinhala, anti- Buddhist and anti-national force, that is UNP, now fast disintegrating and disappearing as a political force in no time from the surface of this land, no man or god can  stop the victory of the Sinhala Buddhist forces led by Rajapaksas. There is a likelihood of all Sinhala forces drifting towards this historic goal.

Under these circumstances no one can stop the MR Camp getting at least 175 seats in the 2020 Parliament and it will go down in history as the biggest electoral victory ever in the post Independent Sri Lanka by any political Party. As for me, I am fully confident that this miracle will happen on the 5th of August, the results of which will be obvious by the 6th evening. 

My appeal to the Sinhala Buddhist  voters

The whole nation should rise in unison as a mighty force like the Phoenix from ashes under the new patriotic and vibrant leadership of President Rajapaksa taking the above situation as a stimulant and a blessing in disguise for us to march forward as one united and determined nation. I do not think you will get a better chance than this to get your national aspirations realized again. If you neglect your duty by the nation and the country at this time, I can vouch you, you might never get such an opportunity like this at any time in future. Therefore please remember this might be the last chance you all get to save the Sinhala nation and the Motherland. Going by the words and the deeds of the UNP right from the beginning in 1948 and more particularly after 1977 and the present contenders Ranil and Sajit, expecting any pro- Sinhala and pro- Buddhist action from them is like expecting wings from tortoises (Ibbangen pihatu balaporottuwenna wage), Therefore it is the time for all Sinhalese to get together to vote the SLPP to save  the Sinhala nation the Motherland and the Sasana

Once we do our duty I am confident Gothabhaya and Mahinda will lay the firm foundation to rescue this country and the Sinhala Nation from all misdeeds and omissions committed by all the previous Governments since 1948 at least.

What all of us, the patriotic people of this country have to do at this election

 All the patriotic people of this country have to give the President a strong and stable Government by voting en-block to the SLPP at the forthcoming election to enable them   to have a strong government exceeding 2/3 majority under MR in Parliament to enable it carry out the Presidents avowed mission by the nation and our motherland. That I think is the best lesson patriotic people of this country can teach the communal Tamils and Muslims and also those International predators and local cynics like Rajan Philip and other lunatiks like Rajeewa Jayaweera (see Island 27th 2020 At the centre of it will be Rajapaksa v. Rajapaksa, sounding like Kramer v. Kramer of by Rajan Philip) who are trying to drive a wedge between Mahinda and Gota to deprive this nation of this unprecedented golden opportunity of rescuing the Sinhala nation and the motherland from the Augean mess in to which it has been put in to by all those who were supposed to have ruled this country since 1948.

Lanka Mataavata haa Sinhala Jatiyata Jayaweva! Sambuddha Sasanaya Chirath kaalayak araksha vetwa!