Priyantha Hettige 

At present, President Putin is conducting what he calls a special operation” in Ukraine.  This is not a fully-fledged war. It is constrained and is limited in its objectives. He is fulfilling his well-known and often stated objectives of:

(1) Protecting the Russian speaking peoples of the Luhansk, Donbass, Kherson and Mariopol regions of eastern Ukraine from indiscriminate shelling. They were getting incoming shells fired by the Ukrainian far-right or Fascists who are to be found throughout the ranks of Ukrainian army, and even 20% or 30% of the population as a whole. Ever since the Maidan Square uprising and the toppling of the existing democratically elected government. (A US instigated affair) the US has fanned the embers of fascism that was already smoldering there. (It is suggested that the reader should familiarize himself about Fascism and what it stands for! It is an unsociable opposite to Communism!)

Russia has lost 26 million people fighting Fascism in World War II, so, having Fascism re-installed in so close a neighbor was highly provocative and irritating (cruel?) to those Russians who had lost so many relatives in the last war. It is worth noting that Russia has been invaded many times by ruthless thugs, armed to the teeth with the latest weapons, searching for gold, wealth and of course, pretty girls of which Russia of course, has in abundance!

(2) Challenging the Ukrainian army and preferably reduce their numbers by shelling and gunfire – just as they have done to the Russian-speaking residents in Eastern Ukraine by indiscriminate firing. Russians are returning the complement! This is the steady hand of Mr. Putin at work! This is why the Russian people cheer him on – not in national fervor but in a heart-felt sense of relief that something is being done to right a wrong – tit for tat, arriving on the heads of heartless Fascists!

FULL – SCALE WAR

President Zelenski is very much guided by the Americans. These US White house officials dislike Putin intensely. He has disrupted their plans for breaking up Russia and going in and robbing the riches that are to be found there – a familiar motive of invaders, well known and experienced by Russians over the Centuries. The fact is that the US Whitehouse has a narrative, a plan that is not realistic! Russia is not simply a gas (petrol) station with Nukes.

Mr. Putin has set in motion over the years the wheels of munitions and arms development, building on what was developed under Communism. They have been active and innovative in their development of weapons and are themselves armed to the teeth, unbeknown to the powerful but brash, careless, fake news believing US and the West. Unfortunately for the US plan, their narrative is unrealistic, it does not match with reality.  They are believing in their own fake news! They are fixated on their plan and have no other! But it is failing!

Because their plan is failing ill-advised measures may be taken which may cross Mr. Putin’s red line.

If Ukraine crosses this red line, by bombing Russia or Transnistria, considered a Russian territory close to Moldova, this will automatically trigger a full scale war against Ukraine and its leadership.

That entails deadly rockets raining down on the heads of Zelenski and his officials in a short time! No warnings given! This would leave Ukraine decapitated, leaderless and weak. – And this in turn will allow Russia to advance across all the country up to the Polish border in the west. But how to get a negotiated peace – with whom?

The great problem for Russia is that there is no-one in the west with any credibility after all the lies and false promises of the recent past. Who can Mr. Putin talk to who is reliable and be trusted to follow any agreement that is made? No-one, not the US, not NATO, nor Ukraine is known to be reliable enabling a legally binding peace agreement, is the answer. As nothing can be negotiated, so it must all be settled on the battlefield. A sad day for the majority of Ukrainians, who, by being Slavic in culture have close affinity, friendship with Russia. Ukrainians have lost terribly in this conflict.

Mr. Putin can order a deadly strike on the Ukrainian leadership at any time, but as a good (cunning) lawyer and head of state, his actions must correspond to the dangers faced by Russia, and be proportionate. Hitler was not highly trained, unlike Putin. Mr. Putin is a highly qualified lawyer and was also a top KGB officer. Hitler made fatal mistakes, hopefully Mr. Putin will not!

He knows the limits: actions must arise from just causes. For example, after the bombing of the Kersh Straight bridge leading to Crimea, Putin felt justified to unleash heavy fusillades of rockets on Ukrainian infrastructure as a just response; a reply in kind.

POLAND’S SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

Many Polish men have joined the Ukrainian army to fight the Russians. Also Poland has sent many weapons to Ukraine, including Leopard Tanks – a definitely unfriendly act.

If Ukraine is fully occupied by Russia, the presence of the Russian army on the borders of Poland will make the Poles shiver in their shoes because of their past indiscretions! And there would be only the little, ill equipped and trained Polish army standing in the way of Russia invading Poland and clearing out the Fascists out from there, too!

NEW EAST EUROPEAN BLOCK

But Russia has to do its calculations first. He, Mr. Putin needs a just cause to invade Poland and also, how favourably or unfavourably would Russians be received? How many Poles would tolerate Poland joining in a new Warsaw Pact alliance -like in previous times? These are major questions for Mr. Putin.

Putin’s colleagues must be debating this very same thing even now – can they return and resurrect a new buffer alliance to act between them and NATO? – but of course, an alliance divorced from Communism.

A further great annoyance to Russia is that Russian speaking Latvians, Estonians, and Lithuanians are also being harassed and discriminated against in these three countries. These would easily fit back into a new eastern block to counter NATO.

But Putin is savvy enough to know about conquered people disliking their conquerors – He does not want such bad feelings to arise against Russian people who only fight for righteous causes, these days.

Putin is patriotic in that he wants the best for the people of the Federation (of Russian States) and including any Eastern European block. He wants to bring people out of suffering – to some kind of prosperity and happiness. It could be seen as a human right! To live without any dark threats hanging over their heads.

RUSSIAN TRUTH”: A WORD OF EXPLANATION

The West sees facts, news as extremely flexible these days. And so the term Fake News” has entered our lives. But notice that Russian news has a tendency to be to be a little more factual – but that is not a hard and fast rule.

As an example, progress in the military Special Operation” in Ukraine seems to be reported a little more accurately than in the West, amounting to be fairly, satisfactorily accurate, especially on the number of casualities on both sides.

Now, a possible explanation for this directness and honesty is that, because Russia has been obliged to fight off so many invaders, armed to the teeth with the latest weapons, seeking to rob Russian riches and its pretty children to enslave. This time Russians have armed themselves to the teeth with modern technology: drones, heat seeking missiles, smart bombs. They know what to do just to survive.

 Also, reporting in a war has to be accurate and report truthfully all successes and failures. This allows for corrective action to be taken, with successful results. Anything less than factual reporting can be (and must have been) leading to deadly failure and death.

So, you have two laws of consequences operating as a result of war:

Truth and honesty are the guardians of our own safety and well-being”, but also regarding weapons:  Science is the engine of prosperity.”