Dilrook Kannangara

Sadly the nation has been pushed to a corner without many options. Who did it is a bygone debate now as time is running out. Sri Lanka needs a surviving mechanism. Without it the island nation will totally capitulate to the New Great Game. Those who dream about utopian options that does not exist in real life indirectly (or directly) support Sri Lanka’s total national capitulation. Banging one’s head on a boulder doesn’t break the boulder; it rightfully smashes the head that is unable to think.

A survival mechanism of some lizards and even humans is the amputation of a limb to escape a life-threatening situation. It is a very hard choice for a human but common. Soldiers with Anti Personnel Mine (APM) injuries are operated in the battlefield itself without sedation. It is both a heart-wrenching and a horror sight. But if that is not done the soldier perishes. Sri Lanka for instance saved 13,000 lives this way. If not for this gruesome and unfortunate amputation, military deaths would have increased by close to 50%.

Of the two choices Sri Lanka before between defaulting on bond loans and repaying them after a restructure, the second option was chosen. That means Sri Lanka must repay these loans with interest. With a continuing trade deficit, there is no way Sri Lanka can earn these additional dollars to repay loans. This leaves with just one option – to sell state assets to foreign investors for dollars. If that is not done, Sri Lanka will not have any foreign trade partners as it would have lost credibility in credit matters and no supplier would be willing to lose their money by exporting to Sri Lanka. The island nation will be unable to buy essentials from fuel, medicine, spare parts, vehicles, manufacturing essentials, fertilizer, etc.

Exporting more housemaids is not the solution as it comes with its own strings. The countries that employ them will extend difficult demands for Sri Lanka to meet. They sure know Sri Lanka’s desperation for foreign currency.

On the other hand if Sri Lanka uses its painstakingly rebuilt reserves to repay loans, the nation will again fall into another 2022.

Either way it will put severe pressure on almost all industries in the island. The military is heavily dependent on import of weapons, consumables, spare parts, fuel, etc. essential to maintain national security. These are not cheap. Sacrifices will have to be made and this will jeopardize national security.

With an economic crisis to deal with, the military will be seen as an area to cut expenses when people’s very own survival is at stake. Such a move will aggravate the situation.

What is even more worrying is since 2009 Sri Lanka did not invest in military hardware as it should. There are no fighter jets or attack helicopters left that can perform combat missions. Transporters and simple aerial stunt aircraft (as in the 1970s) are around. MBTs, IFVs and AMPs are very old and require largescale replacement. Ammunition stocks are the same not to forget the losses due to fires at stores. Sri Lanka requires large investments in drone warfare which is cheap for the attacker but expensive for the defender. There are no dollars for any of this.

All these mean one thing. An easy foreign takeover of the island nation after instigating an internal armed struggle. People’s will to fight is at near zero now as their main priority is survival.

Even the men in the military will not be willing to commit to a difficult war given food shortages and weapons shortages. Dollars will be easily used to bribe some of them to go against Sri Lanka. Fortunately this type of ‘’friendly fire” incidents were uncommon in the last war but unfortunately economic desperation will make them very common in future.

To make matters worse, despite Sri Lanka’s economy shrinking rapidly for the consecutive fourth year running, almost all other nations are massively expanding their economies. This makes Sri Lanka’s comparative defence position even weaker.

In order to avoid national capitulation, Sri Lanka must take the bitter pill soon.

Vultures are sensing Sri Lanka’s weakness and in all certainty are already planning an assault firstly by instigating a local armed struggle and secondly invading the island under the guise of right to protect. It has happened in other countries. The mighty Soviet Union and once prosperous Yugoslavia collapsed mainly due to prolonged economic crises. Vietnam, Iraq, Poland, Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, Korea in the 1940s, Georgia, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, East Timor (Indonesia), Yemen, Lebanon, etc. are other examples of economic crises leading to invasion. The world order is the survival of the military or economic fittest. The rest are absorbed by the strong.

Not making a choice is equal to choosing national collapse as it is the default option.