Dilrook Kannangara

For over 50 years since 1947, USA and India didn’t have many things in common in the defence space. There was a time when USA and India were close to war and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program was supported by USA. The current iconic Indian PM was once branded a war criminal” by US news and political outlets over the happenings in Gujarat when he was the Chief Minister. He soon became USA’s darling as USA cannot prevail in Asia without India.

However, since then the two countries have forged a close and increasingly warm relationship on strategic defence matters in Asia. This is driven by the fear of China.

What’s in it for USA?

US-led military campaigns have failed in long wars while they have excelled in short wars. After warring for 10 years in Vietnam and Laos, the US-led military alliance only managed to secure a helipad in Saigon. That too was just for 30 minutes. After fighting for 20 years, US-led coalition of the willing (all of NATO except France and other US defence allies) only managed to secure the Kabul airport for a couple of hours until that too fell. Same goes for Iraq, Syria and a few other places. In contrast, US-led alliances have done well in short wars including Libya, Panama, etc.

In WW2, US forces landed in Europe only after Soviet troops had beaten the Germans in Soviet territory and started to chase them down to Berlin. Not before. Japan was tamed in 1945 only after Germany surrendered.

The Soviet Union did most of the heavy-lifting in WW2 and as a result sacrificed more men and material than Germany.

Having seen the Soviet success, USA and its colonial allies feared it. Thus started the Cold War.

Today USA wants India to play the same role against China as the Soviet Union played in WW2 in fighting Germany. And sacrifice possibly hundreds of millions of Indian lives to defeat” China. If Indian troops managed to inflict defeat on China, USA and its traditional colonial allies will move in just to claim the prized target with some swift and short attacks on China. Not otherwise. USA and its military allies are salivating at India’s large population which is now the largest in the world. They see them as cannon fodder and nothing more than that – objects to be used cheaply to maintain the rules-based world order” and democracy”. Funnily enough both these phrases and mechanisms are inventions of western colonialists.

Due to extreme desperation, Washington has turned a blind eye to Indian commercial and military dealings with Russia, North Korea, Afghanistan, etc.

India Shouldn’t Become American Cannon Fodder

A war against China will devastate India demographically, economically, militarily and socially. What remains of India will be an easy target for Pakistan to overpower. India will disintegrate in to smaller nations as the death toll of Indians will not be the same across all states. Given the destruction, some states will question the insanity of becoming sacrificial calves in a war they never wanted. Separation will spare their people from destruction.

Even if India wins, USA and its allies will fear and shun India thereafter as they did with the Soviet Union.

It is a lose-lose situation for India.

Indian leaders have acted diligently and astutely. They have accepted military, economic and social benefits that come with aligning with USA and allies but refused to take part in any military activity against China. This is the optimum approach. Extending this period of honeymoon for the longest possible tenure should be in India’s interests. Obtaining the maximum amount of technology, military equipment, economic concessions and other benefits during this time will benefit India.

India must learn from Stalin’s and Zelensky’s mistakes and not repeat them. Or the experience from South Vietnamese and Afghanistan’s pro-US troops! They were decimated after USA ran away in defeat, leaving them to fend for themselves.

This will force USA to abandon military confrontation with China and ensure peace in Asia which is the global engine of economic growth.

In another decade India will surpass USA to become the second largest world economy in purchasing power. USA will be the junior partner in any defence treaty with India. Days of the current world order are numbered. No nation should rush to award USA or any of its military allies any importance until the world order settles when Asian powerhouses will call the shots. USA and EU nations will then have to dance to the tune of Asia and not the other way around. Hence the rush to destroy China and India and retain the old rules-based world order” which is on its last legs. If the war in Europe spreads to NATO, Asia-led world order will commence sooner!