VICHARA

May day has come and gone leaving a few significant lessons for the major political parties. First lesson is that the NPP has shown that they are a force to reckon with. They were able to muster massive crowds not only at the main venue in Colombo but assemble similar numberss in three outstations simultaneously. They were oozing with confidence. But head counts have to be converted to votes. A good example are the mammoth crowds that the JVP mustered by the JVP on Galle Face before the 2019 Presidential elections. But JVP was not able to exceed 4 % of the votes at the Presidnential elections and the subsequent Parliamentary elections.

That is history of politics in SL which has become irrellevant today. It has has changed radically during the last few years. The shock of Corvid 19 and the catharsis of the economic debacle has changed the very basis of the belief in Parliamentay democracy.  The present blooming emergence of the NPP will lead to serious brainstorming on the best way to meet the looming threat. It will be desperate maneurvers for survival where some will have to make sacrifices. New strategies will be adopted. New alliances will be made. A likely coalition will be for the old UNP parties to forge together. They have no major policy differences other than the Sajith’s ego which can be assuaged making him number two and be the chief in the next round. With many of Sajith’s group joining Ranil it will be difficult for Sajith to get up to 50 percent plus.

The present strength of the SLPP has not been tested. They seem to still depend on the leadership of Mahinda Rajapaksa. The presence of Basil has supresed the emergence of Namal as a leader. Basil is a drag on the party but the backing of US. SLPP also has the support of the conservative left. They also have the advantage of the force of inertia which will be there with the 6.9 million people who voted with the SLPP. They have to do some soul searching before they change their previous stand. Ranil may prefer to work with Basil rather than with Sajith who has a grievance against him.

This being the Presidential election the candidate matters as much as the perfomance and policies of his party. Ranil has already played two trump cards which the opposition has not callenged. His Aswesuma is another temporary handout which has little lasting impact. It would have been much better if at least half of the Aswesuma is used to create productive employment. Give fishing rods rather than some fish. His second trump card is the issue of land grants to LDO permit holders. Making peasant lands a marketable commodity will result in fragmentation, litigation and transfer of land to mudalalis and foreigners. The most recent trump he has pulled out is the wage increase of Plantaion workers against the wishes of the Plantation owners. The outcome is that the Minister threatens to renationalize the plantations. It is a contradictory situation where profit making state enterprises are privatized and loss makin plantions are nationalised. His immmediate bugbear is the settlement of the ISB payments which was his own making under the Yahapalanaya.

A new progressive force is emerging with the rise of the MJP of whih the strength is th presidential candidate. This dark horse candidate has no past baggage and is a tested out professional but his new pary MJP is still not visible although Derana has done plenty of ground work which wiil be of immense use. A strong left force can be molded if MJP joins the CP, Wimal and Gammanpila combinations. They have the most compelling indictments on Ranil and his politics. The more they condemn Ranil the NPP will also benefit from it.

At the moment the NPP apperars to be moving towards the crest of a wave in popularity. They have only to maintain the momentum and not do any stupid thing, for which they have a popensity, to be on top in the next few months.

VICHARA