Dilrook Kannangara

Getting rid of a Prime Minister, Economic Affairs Minister and a President wasn’t the greatest achievement of Aragalaya 2022. In addition to these unprecedented wins, it also split the largest political party in the country into five (5) pieces. These five pieces are, Basil’s group, Lanza’s group, Sirisena’s group (and its own splinter groups), Dulas’s group and Weerawansa’s group. Three of these groups are with the President while two oppose the president. As Ranil presides over all of them, any amalgamation must happen through him and no unity is possible without Ranil.

Their alignment at the forthcoming presidential election will be interesting. Lanza and Basil groups will most likely support Ranil for president though they dislike each other. Rajapaksas will be joining Ranil’s group as a very junior partner behind the UNP, CWC, SLMC, ACMC, Lanza group and TMVP/EPDP. That is total humiliation to a clan that once took pride in winning the war!

Sirisena’s group has split into two main groups – one supporting the incumbent president while the other opposes him.

Weerawansa’s group will not support Ranil for president and they may end up in political orphanages unless they are adopted by a kind home.

Dulas’s group aligns more with Sajith than any other party. Teaming up with Weerawansa’s party is not easy for them as caste differences and social class differences are too irreconcilable.

As they are irreconcilably divided, they will be the biggest losers at future elections while the JVP and the UNP will be the biggest winners. If SJB manages to retain its share of the vote, they too will be better off than now. Presidential, parliamentary, PC and LG elections will be held within just 12 months and winners of one will win the rest.