Courtesy The Daily News (Sri Lanka)

Colombo, August 5: Following the month long violent unrest over the job quota issue in Bangladesh, and upon the intervention of the Bangladesh army chief Gen.Waker-uz Zaman, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday flew out of the country, the daily Prothom Alo reported.

Army Chief Gen. Zaman began a meeting with leading personalities to find an alternative set up. The Jatiya Party co-chairman Anisul Islam Mahmud and the party secretary general Mujibul Haque Chunnu was called in. And others were Anisul Islam Mahmud and Mujibul Haque Chunnu.

A Professor at the Law department of Dhaka University, Asif Nazrul, was also among the invitees.

After the Bangladesh Supreme Court struck down the controversial quotas in recruitment for white-collar government jobs on July 21, reducing them from 56% to 3%, the nation-wide student-led violent agitation was expected to end. But it got worse.

Sheikh Hasina spurned the agitators’ call for talks to find a negotiated settlement on a fair quota system, but she continued to arrest students and activists in thousands, accusing them of planning to over throw her by force.

Hasina banned the radical religious Jamaat-e-Islami in a vain bid ffort to tarnish the image of the agitation by giving it a pro-Pakistan and radical Islamist colour.

The students adopted a one-point programme – forcing the government to quit and restoring democracy.

Nahid Islam, Coordinator of the Student Platform for the non-cooperation movement, announced from Shaheed Minar in Dhaka on Saturday: We have reached a decision about a one-point demand, to ensure safety of human life and establish justice in society. The demand is the downfall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the incumbent government and the abolition of fascism.”

Massive toll

Bangladesh experienced a day of unprecedented violence on Sunday as more than a 100 people, including 14 policemen, were killed in day-long clashes. The clashes rocked every nook and corners of the country. Protesters in their thousands took to the streets and engaged in pitched battles against policemen and ruling party activists, some of the latter using automatic weapons.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said: No one of those who now are carrying out the violence is a student. They are terrorists.”

She had conducted a meeting of the National Committee on Security Affairs (NCSA). Earlier, she had called in the Army to restore order and the army’s patrolling the towns did bring violence down. There is speculation as to whether Hasina will use the Army to restore order so that she can observe with solemnity the 49 th. Anniversary of the assassination of her father and founder of Bangladesh Sheikh Munjbur Rahman on August 15.

But the Army appears to be cautious. Army chief Gen. Waker-us-Zaman, addressing his officers on August 3 said: The Bangladesh Army is a symbol of the trust for the people and it will always stand by the people and support the nation in any situation.”

He also instructed officers to perform their duties with honesty, integrity, and fairness.”

Informed sources in Bangladesh said that there is little or no chance of an army coup because of three reasons:

1. Past experience in Bangladesh shows that people get tired of military rule and agitate to over throw the Generals

2. The Hasina government has looked after Army’s life-style interests.

3. Bangladesh Army men fear US sanctions. The US had earlier sanctioned some top officers of Hasina’s favourite arm, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), for human rights violations.

Former Army officials including former Army Chief Gen.Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan, have asked the Army to get back to the barracks.

Larger Issues

Dr. Fahmida Khatun, executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) wrote in the daily The Daily Star about some of the basic economic issues behind the unrest.

Private investment was 23.5% of the GDP in fiscal year (FY) 2024. At that level the private sector cannot create many jobs. With increases in salaries, perks, job security and power, government jobs have become the most coveted form of employment. But government is already bursting at the seams.

Hence the angry movement against disproportionate quotas (30%) for so-called freedom fighters’ families.

Though the unemployment rate is only 3.53%, according to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2022, youth unemployment stands at 8%, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The percentage of youth aged 15- 24 years who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET), is a whopping 40.67%.

In a skewed labour market, opportunities for decent employment in the organized sector are limited. Due to this, 84.9% of jobs are in the informal sector where income and job security are low.

The lack of employment opportunities, rampant corruption, cronyism, huge bank loan defaults, and lack of good governance have resulted in an unequal distribution of economic opportunities and wealth leading to public wrath.

The top 5% of the population possessed 30.04% of the national income in 2022, which was 27.82% in 2016. The bottom 5% owned only 0.37% of the national income in 2022.

The average inflation rate in Bangladesh was 9.72% in June 2024. The failure of the government to contain high inflationary pressure in the last two years has squeezed the purchasing power of low and middle-income families.

Political stability has turned Bangladesh into a one-party system without credible national elections. This has resulted in a lack of accountability in public services.

Bangladesh’s persistent growth model, which has disregarded the rule of law, has resulted in the establishment of entrenched rent-seeking and crony capitalism. The distortion of economic policymaking with the objective of favouring certain groups is a clear reflection of rampant patronage.

The banking sector is overburdened with wilfully defaulted bank loans, which rose consistently from Taka 22,480 crore in 2009 to Taka 156,039 crore in the fourth quarter of FY2023 (One Bangladesh Taka is US$ 0.0086).

For the less privileged, access to public services often depends on bribes to officials and connections with the ruling party’s local cadres, Dr.Fahmida Khatun says.

US Support

The agitators had in the meanwhile, secured the support of the Western democracies. On August 2, a bipartisan group of 22 US Senators and Representatives jointly wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying: Given these alarming and continuing trends, we hope that you will lead the US Department of State in upholding the shared democratic principles that have long underpinned the US-Bangladeshi relationship.”

The United States must condemn all acts of violence, ensure critical civil liberties, such as the freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, are protected, and take action to hold complicit government officials accountable for the above abuses against the Bangladeshi people.”

However, in an interview to The Daily Star Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre, said that while there have been strong condemnations from the international media and human rights groups, on the whole, the international response, especially from foreign governments, has been rather muted.

Some may find this relatively restrained international response to be puzzling, given the scale and egregiousness of the violence. There are several reasons for it. One is quite simple: the world is on fire, and with multiple major wars playing out, an internal crisis in Bangladesh won’t register high on many radars. Another reason is very practical: many governments prefer to keep a low profile and say little publicly at such a dangerous and volatile moment in Bangladesh, to avoid any risks to their nationals and interests in the country.”

But let’s be clear: many governments, including in the US, are concerned. Bangladesh may not be a major power, but it’s a consequential and strategically significant player, especially in an era of intense great power competition. It’s also a top global economic player. From the international community’s perspective, there’s a lot at stake with Bangladesh, and when it’s convulsed by unrest and uncertainty, that doesn’t serve anyone’s interests.”

The protests were organised and spearheaded by members of the public, not political parties. They were led by students, not political partisans. This isn’t to say opposition forces didn’t exploit and infiltrate the protests—I’m sure they did, given the opportunity it provided. But these were public protests led by student leaders.”

It’s a painful truth for the Awami League that there were mass displays of public anger against the government. Many Bangladeshis—common people, not political partisans—seem to be fed up with the government.”