By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham Courtesy NewsIn.Asia

Colombo, August 3: It has long been a common perception that none of the main candidates will be able to receive more than 50 percent of the popular vote in the upcoming presidential election.

For the last few days after the announcement of the Presidential election by the Election Commission, many newspapers have been publishing details of the procedures on how the next round of vote counting will be conducted to elect a President if any candidate fails to get 50 percent plus 1 of the votes in the first round.

At the same time, moves to forge new political  alliances that started several  months back have  now intensified. The two main political parties that alternated in power in the last century, the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) are now a shadow of their former selves. Recently, a prominent political analyst humorously wrote that the UNP was the Grand Old Party, but the ‘ grand ‘ part of it is no longer valid.

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) formed by the Rajapaksas after they abandoned the SLFP,  grew to be the most powerful political party in the country and came to power in a very short time,  but it too lost its influence following the unprecedented  popular uprising that ousted them two years ago.

The UNP could not win even a single seat in the last parliamentary elections except for a national list seat. The same fate would have befallen the SLFP under former President Maithripala Sirisena, if it had not contested with SLPP.

The UNP’s vote bank is currently with the Samagi Jana Balawegaya ( SJB ) which was formed by the Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa four years ago after falling out with President Ranil Wickremesinghe in a battle for leadership in the  UNP.

The Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP ) which had a very small vote base  formed an alliance called National People’s Power (NPP ) is yet to be tested in an election, although its support seems to have multiplied in the South after the popular uprising.

Recent opinion polls have shown that the NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa are ahead in popular support.

Distancing himself from his party, President Wickremesinghe is running as an independent candidate. Wickramasinghe has entered  the fray relying on a broad coalition that is said to be formed under the leadership of Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena.

All Members of Parliament rallying behind the President were elected to parliament on behalf of the SLPP four years ago when the Rajapaksas’ popularity was at its peak. An important question now arises as to how much support these MPs have among the people now when the Rajapaksas themselves have lost popularity.

It is the people of the country who are going to elect the new president, not the MPs.

Since President Wickramasinghe could not even save his seat in Colombo district in the last parliamentary election, can an Alliance  formed by enticing  politicians  from various parties and groups ensure him  the 50 percent votes needed to win the presidential election?

Despite having nearly half a century of political experience, Wickremesinghe goes to the people claiming credit for the economic restructuring measures undertaken by his government under the guidance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF ) in the last two years.

The President is entirely dependent on his economic policies to win the election. Will that be enough to bring him back to the Presidency?

Many of the actions taken by his government and some of the laws passed by parliament have eroded his reputation as one of the Sri Lanka’s most liberal-democratic political leaders. His recent flouting of the judgments of the highest judiciary have earned him the ire of those who believe in democratic governance.

There is also an impression that the decision taken by the Rajapaksas not to support Wickremesinghe is not detrimental to the President. If so, how can Wickramasinghe benefit from the support of the same MPs who had supported all the Rajapaksas’ policies and actions that have ruined the country? The public’s perception of these MPs will definitely have an impact on Wickramasinghe’s chances in the election.

Despite what the Rajapaksas say in public to brag that they still have big support among the people, it was widely expected that they would support Wickremesinghe in the Presidential election. But, now they have decided to field a separate candidate on behalf of their party after their attempts  to secure assurances from the President that would ensure their family’s interests and future political prospects proved futile.

But they are not ready to field a Rajapaksa as the candidate. They fear that if the SLPP does not contest in the Presidential election, their voter base will be scattered among other parties  and that will have a negative  impact on the next  parliamentary elections.

To ensure the future prospects of their party, they will nominate a loyalist as their presidential candidate.

The Rajapaksas have an instinct of giving priority to their own interests above everything else. The Presidential election will surely prove what the people of the country feel about the Rajapaksas and those who stood with them.

Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena is said to be in talks with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa to reverse the decision taken by SLPP. It is difficult to guage how successful his efforts will be.

Although it is widely believed that distancing himself from the Rajapaksas would be advantageous to President Wickremesinghe,  he does not comment on the Rajapaksas’ decision to abandon him. 

The Rajapaksas are furious at the President’s strategy  to win the support of SLPP  ministers and MPs by  circumventing  them. They accuse the President of dividing the SLPP.

Incumbents trying to weaken opposition parties is nothing new in politics. The Rajapaksas did an ” excellent job of dividing the opposition during their time in power. It is Wickramesinghe who  suffered  the worst by that. It was one of the main reasons for his party’s present pathetic situation.

Now it is Wickremesinghe’s turn to hit back. It is said that there are now 115 MPs, including SLPPers, in support of Wickramasinghe.

Mean while the decision of Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena’s  Mahajana Ekshath Peramuna (MEP )  to support Wickremesinghe in the Presidential election is  an  interesting political development.  The President and Prime Minister are close friends from their  school days though they are polar opposites in politics.

In politics, Gunawardena has traditionally identified himself with the anti-UNP camp and has been a  fierce critic of  Wickramasinghe’s policies. He followed a policy of blending left-wing principles with Sinhalese nationalism.

In an unexpected turn of events after the popular uprising, he is serving as Prime Minister under Wickramasinghe’s Presidency and it seems that both of them have developed a good understanding politically in the interest of their future prospects.

Not only that, it is said that President’s election campaign is going to be spearheaded under the leadership of Gunawardena.

The Prime Minister’s father, the late Philip Gunawardena, was  credited with introducing Marxism to Sri Lanka. In his final days he was a key minister in the UNP government under the late PM Dudley Senanayake whose policies were diametrically opposed to left-wing politics.

Similarly, his son has joined the ranks of the current UNP leader. Dramatic changes in the political landscape make strange bedfellows. We will see more such additions in the coming days.