Dr Anchita Borthakur, Research Associate, Courtesy

VIF

Introduction

Sri Lanka is gearing up for its first Presidential election after the Island nation was hit by massive economic/political turmoil in 2022. On July 26, the Independent Election Commission of Sri Lanka, after months of speculations, announced that the ninth Presidential election of the country is scheduled to be held on September 21. A record 38 candidates will compete in this month’s election, which will shape the nation’s political and economic future.

The primary contenders in the race are the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the leader of the opposition Sajith Premadasa, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of National People’s Power (NPP), and the Rajapaksa clan—Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). In addition to these candidates, Nuwan Bopage has been designated as the Presidential candidate for the Alliance for People’s Struggle, which was established by the Aragalaya activists.^[1] Other prominent candidates are Former Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, ex-SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) chairman/parliamentarian Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka and P. Ariyanethran— a common Tamil candidate” [although at the central committee meeting of Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), held on 1 September, the main party of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) decided to back the opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. ^[2] However, a section of the party still insists on supporting the common Tamil candidate ^[3]]. It is expected that the economic crisis, policy decisions, and anti-incumbency sentiment to a certain extent will influence the upcoming presidential race. ^[4]

The Countdown Starts: Official Launch of Election Campaigns

The opposition leader Sajith Premadasa was the first to kick off his election campaign with an inaugural rally in Kurunegala on August 16, ^[5] pressing on building a resilient economy and empowering every citizen of the country. ^[6] On 17 August, President Ranil Wickremesinghe officially started his 2024 presidential election campaign with a rally in Anuradhapura^[7], the ancient capital of Sri Lanka. The President underscored his achievements over the past two years, emphasizing how he has restored economic stability ^[8] to the bankrupt nation, securing IMF bailout, and pledged to enhance this stability further through expected concessions from the creditor nations. ^[9] However, he often faces criticism for being a mere figurehead for the Rajapaksas, a family blamed for the island’s bankruptcy, nepotism, and corruption. ^[10] On the same day a rally in support of the presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake was also held in Matara where he assured the public that a NPP led government will reform and purify the country’s political landscape. ^[11] SLPP candidate Namal held its maiden rally in the Kada Panaha area of Anuradhapura on 21 August where he tried to maintain a distance from the unpleasant legacy of the previous Rajapaksa regime^[12]; while at the same time intended to capitalize on the traditional support base of the Rajapaksas. ^[13]

Voter Insights: Analyzing the Latest Poll Survey Data

If estimates are to be believed it is unlikely that a single candidate will win a clear majority in the first round of the impending poll. The June report of the Institute of Health Policy’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) revealed that support for SJB leader Sajith Premadasa rose to 43% (+4) as compared to the month of May. ^[14] In contrast, support for NPP/JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake fell to 30% (-6), while support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe increased to 20% (+3), and a generic SLPP candidate, as Namal Rajapaksa’s name had not yet been disclosed by that time, garnered just 7% of votes. ^[15] However, the latest July estimates show Dissanayake and Premadasa leading neck to neck at 37% and 36% respectively with 23 % support for Ranil, a substantial surge, while support for a generic SLPP candidate remained unchanged at 4%.^[16] It was further estimated that support for Dissanayake was notably strong among the youth, with 54% of them backing him. ^[17] It was also significant among Sinhala voters, who supported him at a rate of 41%, and the wealthiest third of voters, where his support was 42%.^[18] In contrast, Sajith Premadasa garnered more support from the poorest third of voters, with 42%, and from minority groups, receiving 51% support from Sri Lankan Tamils and 65% from Muslims. ^[19] It is reported that President Wickremesinghe’s support grew with age, peaking at 38% among individuals aged 60 and older. ^[20] Additionally, he garnered more support from women (26%) compared to men (17%).^[21] However, in recent weeks, the Commissioner General of Elections had to warn voters about various election surveys leading up to the polls and urged them not to feel pressured to alter their opinions based on these surveys. ^[22] In addition, Sri Lanka has experienced the spread of false information related to the upcoming election, particularly on social media, deceitfully attributed to organizations like the United Nations and the European Union, underscoring the urgent need for voter awareness and political literacy. ^[23]

Revealing the Vision: Unveiling the Election Manifestos

On August 26, NPP led by Anura Kumara Dissanayaka released its Election Manifesto titled ‘A Thriving Nation, A Beautiful Life’^[24], focusing on several areas including addressing corruption-related matters, establishing a new National Development Bank and re-negotiating with the International Monetary Fund to alleviate the hardship of the poor.” ^[25] However, supporters of Ranil Wickremesinghe were quick to criticize the document for its lack of clarity regarding the financial requirements to fulfill its promises, suggesting that it resembles wishful thinking more than a practical plan. ^[26]

On 29 August, the incumbent President Wickremesinghe unveiled his election manifesto titled ‘Five years of winning the country with Ranil.’ The manifesto is built around five core principles consisting of; The Theravada Trade Economy (which flourished during Anuradhapura Kingdom), Operation – Beyond 2025, Towards a Prosperous Nation, A Win for the Motherland, and A United Sri Lanka was first presented to religious leaders, led by the Maha Sangha and then to the youth of the country by Wickremesinghe.” ^[27] Wickremesinghe highlighted that his plan focuses on lowering the cost of living, generating employment, offering tax relief, fostering economic growth, and introducing initiatives to guarantee that every citizen has the opportunity to own land and a home. ^[28] SLPP Presidential candidate Namal officially launched his election manifesto titled ‘Namal Dekma’ on 2 September focusing on four main thrust areas – state priorities, innovation, investment and independence. ^[29] On the other hand, opposition SJB leader Premadasa will reportedly release his election manifesto titled ‘Win For All’ on 04 September. It is anticipated that in the manifesto he primarily stressed on five key points – Building a resilient economy, empowering every citizen, enhancing government service, protecting the quality of life, and safeguarding the nation.” ^[30]

Political Loyalties Redefined: The Unprecedented Surge in Party Crossovers

However, the upcoming Presidential election is characterised by an unprecedented trend of party crossovers and changes in political loyalties. ^[31] It is reported that about 130 of SLPP’s 145 elected/appointed MPs have switched sides joining either the current President, SJB or Dilith Jayaweera’s Mawbima Janatha Party (MJP) ahead of the election. ^[32] As the single largest switching of allegiance in Sri Lanka’s political history,” a record nearly 100 SLPP MPs have pledged their support to the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe. ^[33] Although, the repercussions of these defections will be revealed only after 21 September, yet it has definitely weakened the morale of the SLPP. Poll surveys conducted last year also stated a change in the voting pattern of Sri Lankans where it is estimated that an overwhelming majority of the SLPP voters have shifted their support to NPP or SJB with the maximum people preferred the former over the latter. ^[34] The reason behind this is that a large number of Sri Lankans held the wrong policies of the Rajapaksas responsible for the economic catastrophe in the country in 2022.

As a reminder to the economic crisis and the relative ease brought to the country by Wickremesinghe, the Election Commission has given the symbol ‘cooking Gas Cylinder’ to the current President who is fighting the poll as an independent candidate. In addition, President Wickremesinghe is endorsed by a grand coalition of more than 30 political parties and groups especially the breakaway factions of the Rajapaksa family^[35] in the forthcoming election. Earlier 13 ex-SJB Parliamentarians had backed the current President which has given new momentum to his campaign. ^[36] Scholars are of the opinion that although these defections have clearly impacted the SLPP/SJB and strengthened Wickremesinghe’s camp, they might not lead to substantial electoral advantages. ^[37] This skepticism is heightened by the widespread criticism on social media, where the electorate expresses their frustration with this kind of political manoeuvring. ^[38]

Conclusion

To conclude, Sri Lanka will go to the polls for a pivotal presidential election on 21 this month which is expected to have far-reaching implications for the country’s future. The initial group of European Union election observers, along with a delegation from the Commonwealth Observer Group, had already arrived in the island nation to oversee the upcoming presidential election. ^[39] Additional international representatives are anticipated to arrive in the country in the coming weeks. The forthcoming election will be critical for the country with approximately 17.1 million eligible voters, including a million first-time voters, and 56% of the electorate being women. ^[40] Given that all the presidential candidates are male, it will be intriguing to see if the aspirations and concerns of women, including the youth, the rural population, minorities, and all sections of society are adequately represented.

Amid economic challenges, political reform debates, and social changes, this election is poised to be one of the most consequential in Sri Lanka’s recent history. With a backdrop of multifaceted challenges, the new administration in the country will need to address immediate economic concerns while also establishing the foundation for long-term stability and prosperity. Eminent journalist Dilrukshi Handunnetti eloquently wrote, The next president inherits a thorny crown and will not have things easy. Voters have a key role to play, not only in selecting the next president but demanding accountability from him, demanding policy statements that are not figments of imaginations but are truly actionable .” ^[41] As Sri Lankans prepare to cast their votes, this election represents a crucial moment—an opportunity to shape the future of a nation standing at a crossroads.

References

^[1] https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/Nuwan-Bopage-named-Presidential-candidate-of-Aragalaya-activists/108-288277
^[2] https://www.deccanherald.com/world/main-tamil-party-to-back-sajith-premadasa-in-sri-lanka-presidential-polls-3172718
^[3] https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/Differences-brew-in-ITAK-over-decision-to-back-Sajith-Premadasa/108-290896
^[4] https://www.dailymirror.lk/opinion/Economic-crisis-policy-choices-anti-incumbency-shape-Lankas-presidential-race/231-289956
^[5] https://www.sundaytimes.lk/240818/news/candidates-step-up-presidential-campaign-with-rallies-and-blessings-568052.html
^[6] https://www.adaderana.lk/news/101594/sajith-premadasa-launches-election-manifesto
^[7] https://www.dailymirror.lk/caption-story/Ranil-launches-Presidential-campaign-from-Anuradhapura/110-289763
^[8] https://www.dailymirror.lk/opinion/Economic-crisis-policy-choices-anti-incumbency-shape-Lankas-presidential-race/231-289956
^[9] https://www.dailymirror.lk/opinion/Economic-crisis-policy-choices-anti-incumbency-shape-Lankas-presidential-race/231-289956
^[10] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Sep/01/choosing-successor-for-sri-lankas-thorny-crown
^[11] https://www.newsfirst.lk/2024/08/18/election-campaigns-continue-candidates-present-pledges-and-policies
^[12] https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/why-is-namal-rajapaksa-contesting-the-sri-lankan-presidential-election-when-hes-likely-to-lose/
^[13] https://www.newsfirst.lk/2024/08/21/namal-s-maiden-rally-in-anuradhapura
^[14] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/sajith-premadasa-43-leads-presidential-election-kicks-june-2024-within-margin-error
^[15] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/sajith-premadasa-43-leads-presidential-election-kicks-june-2024-within-margin-error
^[16] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ak-dissanayake-and-sajith-premadasa-lead-neck-and-neck-july-voting-intent-support
^[17] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ak-dissanayake-and-sajith-premadasa-lead-neck-and-neck-july-voting-intent-support
^[18] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ak-dissanayake-and-sajith-premadasa-lead-neck-and-neck-july-voting-intent-support
^[19] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ak-dissanayake-and-sajith-premadasa-lead-neck-and-neck-july-voting-intent-support
^[20] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ak-dissanayake-and-sajith-premadasa-lead-neck-and-neck-july-voting-intent-support
^[21] https://www.ihp.lk/press-releases/ak-dissanayake-and-sajith-premadasa-lead-neck-and-neck-july-voting-intent-support
^[22] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Sep/01/choosing-successor-for-sri-lankas-thorny-crown
^[23] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Sep/01/choosing-successor-for-sri-lankas-thorny-crown
^[24] https://www.adaderana.lk/news/101507/anura-kumara-unveils-election-manifesto
^[25] https://www.newsonair.gov.in/sri-lankas-npp-releases-election-manifesto/
^[26] https://www.newsonair.gov.in/sri-lankas-npp-releases-election-manifesto/
^[27] https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Ranil-unveils-manifesto-for-Five-triumphant-years-for-Sri-Lanka/44-766161
^[28] https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Ranil-unveils-manifesto-for-Five-triumphant-years-for-Sri-Lanka/44-766161
^[29] https://www.adaderana.lk/news/101663/namal-rajapaksas-election-manifesto-launched
^[30] https://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=101594
^[31] https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/unprecedented-crossovers-in-sri-lankas-presidential-race/
^[32] https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/unprecedented-crossovers-in-sri-lankas-presidential-race/
^[33] https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/92-MPs-pledge-support-to-President-PMD/155-288364
^[34] https://groundviews.org/2023/02/22/survey-reveals-dramatic-shift-in-voting-patterns/
^[35] https://theprint.in/world/wickremesinghe-backed-by-grand-alliance-of-over-30-parties-in-sri-lankas-presidential-poll/2225901/
^[36] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/rajapaksas-party-decides-against-backing-ranil-in-presidential-election/article68463561.ece
^[37] https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/unprecedented-crossovers-in-sri-lankas-presidential-race/
^[38] https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/unprecedented-crossovers-in-sri-lankas-presidential-race/
^[39] https://www.newsfirst.lk/2024/08/28/eu-election-observers-in-sri-lanka
^[40] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Sep/01/choosing-successor-for-sri-lankas-thorny-crown
^[41] https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2024/Sep/01/choosing-successor-for-sri-lankas-thorny-crown