Dilrook Kannangara

This year marks 100 years of elections in Sri Lanka and what a fitting celebration it is as election excitement reaches fever pitch. As the most crucial election in Sri Lanka’s history draws near, the likely outcome of the election is becoming clearer. Although the deathmatch is between Ranil and Sajith to take control of the UNP as the first priority and become president as the second priority, Ranil has steadily slipped down. The election is now between Anura and Sajith. Every voter must vote for either Anura or Sajith to make their vote count. Voting for any other candidate is a wasted vote.

Contrary to expectations, Anura has penetrated into Tamil and Muslim vote bases far more effectively than any Rajapaksa ever did. While he cannot win a majority of Christian, Tamil or Muslim votes, he has gained a few hundred thousand votes from these minorities. Compared to Mahinda’s 13% (2015) and Gotabaya’s 8% (the percentages they could get from Tamil and Muslim voters), this is a significant achievement. It shatters many old assumptions that are fast becoming irrelevant.

However, Anura is nowhere near the percentages Mahinda and Gotabaya achieved in winning Sinhala votes. In 2015 Mahinda obtained 58% of Sinhala votes and Gotabaya managed 65%.

Sajith edges out Ranil as the son of a former president pitches to poorer sections of the society while retaining the support of most businessmen. People living below the poverty line almost doubled since 2022 to 26% in 2024 which presents Sajith a winnable segment. He also has a strong support from Christians, Tamils and Muslims. But this time he has competition and he has lost part of it to Ranil. Sajith only managed to win 29% of Sinhala votes in 2019 and by now he has lost part of them.

This puts both Anura and Sajith in a close encounter. The winner must be chosen between them counting the second and third preferences. Over 20% of votes have been wasted as they have been cast to others.

Second and third preference is no preference as those who have cast them have in fact rejected both top candidates. It is not morally correct to decide the winner after counting second and third preferences and adding them to the original count. Instead had the over 20% wasted votes been cast to the top two candidates, it would have reflected a better representation of the public opinion.

There’s no perfect presidential election candidate. Voters must pick the lesser of the two evils – Anura and Sajith. Voters must disregard the rest or their votes will end up wasted. Be part of the change be the subject of change.