Sugath Kulatunga

The 2024 Presidential election has spawned 39 candidates and at least 6 elaborate political manifestos. In the previous elections where the contest was mainly between candidates the manifestos were in essay form. But the current manifestos have followed the format of Project Justification presenting a vision, objectives, strategies and action plan, sometimes under different terms. The presentations are voluminous and is beyond the grasp of ordinary citizens. In reading them the voters should examine whether they are data and action based and not broad sweeping generalizations. The website mantri.lk has provided the key contents of the three manifestos of RW, Sajith and AKD in a table for easy comparison. The contents in this note are also drawn from the manthri presentation, and with reference to other manifestos where they are available on the web.

The discerning voter has to determine in the context of the present situation what is in the national interest indispensable and of paramount importance. In this attempt the voter may follow the advice of the Buddha in the parable of a person shot with a poison arrow, of getting the priorities right. The content of many of the manifestos is appropriate for a National Plan and is not helpful for an ordinary voter to select the best candidate by comparing the several manifestos. The best a voter could do is to focus on the immediate priorities of paramount national interest.

These are:

1.The unresolved external debt.

2.The negative balance of payments and balance of trade.

3.Territorial integrity and national security.

4. Peace and harmony.

Elements 1 and two and 3 and 4 are interconnected.

1.The unresolved external debt.

Beginning in 2022, we face annual debt repayments totalling US$ 6 billion. Over the next 4-5 years, cumulative repayments are projected to amount to US$ 6 billion annually, while state revenue has reached approximately US$ 5.5 billion during this period”. Governnor CBSL July 14, 2024.This statement does not take into account the perpetul trade defecit of around 6 billion US$ which is bound to expand with the free import policy.

As of now the external debt is 37.3 billion US$ out of which 14 billion US$ is in International sovereign bonds. While the country has negotiated a few concessions on the bilateral and multilateral bonds on which the country has a breather until 2028 by which time the accumulated principal and interest would be enormous. There has been negligible progress with ISB repayment.

It ia noted that 70% of state revenue is presently dedicated to the repayment of the principal and interest of external debt. Investment in all good development proposals in the elaborate manifestos will be confined to the balance 30 % of the revenue.

Therefore the voter must take into consideration the proposals on debt management in the several manifestos as a first priority.

 2.The negative balance of payments and balance of trade.

Balance payments reflect the value of economic transactions between Sri Lanka and the rest of the world during a period of time. The main components of our BOP are trade balance, remittances from employment abroad and earnings from tourism. The latter two sources are vulnerable to global predicaments as experienced by SL during the last regime. While they are important sources the country must focus on improving the trade balance by developing exports and managing imports. Unilateral liberalization of trade and investment has to be avoided. Votesr should examine carefully the proposals by the Presidential aspirants to resolve the adverse trade balance.

3.Territorial integrity and national security.

All good proposals in the manifestos are of no consequence if the sovereignty and the territorial integrity are not ensured. Voters should carefully examine for any proposals in the manifestos which are detrimental to the unitary state of the country and are divisive and impair national security.

4. Peace and harmony.

Voters must repudiate proposals which would disturb the peace and harmony among communities by uncalled for revision of the present Constitutional safeguards prescribed by Article 83 (a) protecting them. 

It is hoped that our intelligent voters will ignore the copious promises and unvalidated proposals in most manifestos and make their choice wisely based on the immediate priorities.

Sugath Kulatunga