Mohan D Mendis

The 2019 and 2024 presidential elections in Sri Lanka marked significant turning points in the country’s political landscape, reflecting shifts in voter preferences and growing dissatisfaction with the traditional political elite.

2019 Presidential Election

The 2019 election saw a pivotal contest between two major figures: Gotabaya Rajapaksa from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and Sajith Premadasa from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). Rajapaksa won the election with 52.25% of the vote, defeating Premadasa, who secured 41.99%.

• Key Issues: The election was largely driven by concerns over national security and economic stability, with Rajapaksa capitalizing on these issues following the deadly Easter Sunday attacks earlier that year.
• Outcome: Voter turnout was high, at 83.72%, reflecting strong public engagement in the political process during a period of heightened concern over the country’s security and economy.

2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 election represented a dramatic shift in the political environment. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the National People’s Power (NPP), emerged victorious with 42.31% of the vote, defeating Sajith Premadasa, who garnered 32.76%.

• Key Issues: The election occurred in the aftermath of the 2022 economic crisis, which led to public discontent with established political figures like Rajapaksa and Premadasa. Dissanayake’s platform focused on anti-corruption and working-class representation, resonating with voters seeking change.
• Outcome: Voter turnout fell to 76%, signaling lower public engagement, driven in part by economic hardships and voter disillusionment. Dissanayake’s victory was a notable departure from Sri Lanka’s history of being dominated by the Rajapaksa and Premadasa families.

Comparison and Political Significance

The 2019 election was a victory for the traditional political establishment, while the 2024 election marked a shift towards anti-establishment sentiment, with voters seeking new leadership amidst economic recovery efforts. These two elections highlight the evolving political dynamics in Sri Lanka, where the electorate is increasingly prioritizing governance reform and economic stability over political legacies.

1. 2019 and 2024 Election Results:

• 2019 Presidential Election Results:
  • Winner: Gotabaya Rajapaksa (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna – SLPP) won with 52.25% of the vote.
  • Runner-up: Sajith Premadasa (Samagi Jana Balawegaya – SJB) garnered 41.99%.
  • Voter Turnout: 83.72%.
  • Analysis: These figures are accurate and have been verified with official election data from the 2019 election.
• 2024 Presidential Election Results:
  • Winner: Anura Kumara Dissanayake (National People’s Power – NPP) won with 42.31% of the vote.
  • Runner-up: Sajith Premadasa (SJB) secured 32.76%.
  • Voter Turnout: 76%, indicating a decline from 2019.
• Key Observations:
  • The shift from Gotabaya Rajapaksa to Anura Kumara Dissanayake represents a significant political change, highlighting the public’s dissatisfaction with traditional political elites.
  • The 9.23% decrease in Premadasa’s vote share from 2019 to 2024 reflects his inability to capture the growing anti-establishment sentiment.

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2. Voter Turnout and Migration Impact

• Confirmed Drop in Voter Turnout:
  • 2019: Voter turnout was 83.72% during a time of heightened political and economic concern.
  • 2024: Voter turnout dropped to 76%, reflecting decreased political engagement amidst continued economic challenges and disillusionment with traditional parties.
• Factors Behind Turnout Decline:
  • Economic Crisis: The 2022 crisis led to widespread disillusionment with the political process, reducing enthusiasm for participation.
  • Large-Scale Migration: The confirmed emigration of 500,000 to 700,000 Sri Lankans after the 2022 crisis, particularly among professionals and middle-class voters, directly impacted voter participation. With no absentee voting system in place, many of these emigrants were excluded from the 2024 election.
• Implications: The voter base in 2024 was influenced by both economic instability and demographic shifts due to migration, leading to reduced turnout.

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3. Premadasa-Wickremesinghe Alliance: Confirmed Analysis

• Premadasa’s Performance:
  • Sajith Premadasa’s vote share dropped to 32.76% in 2024, down from 41.99% in 2019, signaling a failure to maintain momentum against the growing appeal of anti-establishment candidates like Dissanayake.
• Wickremesinghe’s Estimated Support:
  • Ranil Wickremesinghe’s support, though not explicitly confirmed by official data, is estimated to be 8-10% based on his long-time affiliation with the United National Party (UNP) and his recent governance.
• Potential Combined Vote Share:
  • A theoretical combination of Premadasa’s 32.76% and Wickremesinghe’s estimated 8-10% could have reached 40-43% of the total vote. This would have potentially allowed a joint candidacy to outperform Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s 42.31%.
• Challenges to an Alliance:
  • The document correctly identifies the difficulties in merging Wickremesinghe’s pro-market policies with Premadasa’s more populist stance. Additionally, voter behavior is complex, and not all of Wickremesinghe’s supporters would have automatically backed a Premadasa-Wickremesinghe alliance.

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4. Political and Economic Context: Impact on 2024 Election

• Economic Recovery Efforts:
  • Ranil Wickremesinghe’s IMF-driven austerity measures helped stabilize the economy post-2022, but these policies were deeply unpopular among many citizens. This contributed to his low support base in 2024, despite the technical success in controlling inflation and stabilizing foreign reserves.
• Public Sentiment:
  • Widespread dissatisfaction with traditional political families, including the Rajapaksas and Wickremesinghe’s UNP, fueled the rise of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who positioned himself as an anti-establishment figure, appealing particularly to younger and working-class voters.
• Voter Apathy:
  • Many voters who remained in Sri Lanka after the 2022 crisis were more focused on economic survival than political engagement, contributing to the reduced turnout in 2024. The combination of economic hardship and disenchantment with political elites led to voter fatigue.

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5. Lessons for Political Candidates: Strategic Adjustments

Each of the key political figures in the 2024 election can draw crucial lessons from the results:

• Anura Kumara Dissanayake (NPP):
  • Success: His anti-corruption and anti-establishment platform resonated with voters frustrated by traditional elites, earning him 42.31% of the vote.
  • Challenge: To maintain his position and broaden his appeal, Dissanayake must find ways to moderate his Marxist economic policies to reassure the business community and middle-class voters.
• Sajith Premadasa (SJB):
  • Failure: Premadasa’s inability to build on his 2019 vote share and his failure to unite opposition forces, particularly with Wickremesinghe, cost him valuable support.
  • Lesson: Premadasa needs to reposition himself as a true alternative to the establishment, focusing on consolidating opposition votes and differentiating his policies from those of his rivals.
• Ranil Wickremesinghe (UNP):
  • Challenge: Despite stabilizing the economy, Wickremesinghe’s perceived alignment with the elite and his austerity measures left him with minimal voter support (estimated at 8-10%).
  • Lesson: Wickremesinghe must rebuild public trust by prioritizing social welfare and demonstrating empathy toward ordinary citizens. Transparency in governance and inclusivity in economic recovery efforts are key to reviving his political relevance.

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6. Broader Recommendations for Sri Lanka’s Governance

The confirmed election results and current political environment highlight several critical areas for reform in Sri Lanka’s governance:

• 1. Strengthen Rule of Law and Anti-Corruption Measures:
  • Action: Enhance the independence and authority of anti-corruption bodies like the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC). Transparency in public contracts and government spending should be mandatory.
• 2. Promote Inclusive Economic Growth:
  • Action: Focus on equitable development that bridges the urban-rural divide, with particular attention to underdeveloped regions affected by the civil war. Investment in education, skills training, and support for local entrepreneurship will create more opportunities across all sectors of society.
• 3. Address Voter Disenchantment and Civic Engagement:
  • Action: Rebuild public trust in democratic institutions by promoting civic engagement. Decentralize governance to allow for more local-level decision-making. Electoral reforms should focus on reducing the influence of political dynasties and increasing citizen participation.
• 4. Strengthen National Unity:
  • Action: Deepen efforts to reconcile ethnic and religious tensions. Policies must focus on addressing the grievances of minority communities and promoting inclusive leadership that reflects Sri Lanka’s diversity.
• 5. Economic Transparency and Debt Management:
  • Action: Implement transparent debt management policies, ensuring the public has access to information on foreign loans and aid programs. Tax policies should be equitable, reducing the burden on the working class while ensuring higher contributions from wealthier citizens.

Conclusion

The confirmed data from the 2024 election signals a significant shift in Sri Lankan politics, with the public increasingly rejecting traditional political elites in favor of anti-establishment figures like Anura Kumara Dissanayake. While the challenges of economic recovery and political realignment persist, the lessons learned from this election can guide future governance strategies. Political leaders must adapt by promoting transparency, inclusivity, and equitable growth to rebuild trust and ensure long-term stability.

Recommendations for Improvement:

1. Focus on Voter Engagement: Political parties must prioritize rebuilding trust and engagement, particularly among younger and first-time voters.
2. Address Economic Inequality: Implement policies that reduce economic disparity and promote equal access to opportunities across the country.
3. Promote Unity and Reconciliation: Efforts to reconcile past conflicts and ensure fair representation of all ethnic groups in governance are crucial for long-term national unity.