Dilrook Kannangara

When a new government is elected, doomsayers and losers say nothing will succeed. That is to vent their very own personal defeatist thoughts. That is not where I’m coming from. While wishing every success to the AKD government I wish to bring to the attention the challenges that are too steep for any regime to overcome. Superhuman effort is needed to salvage Sri Lanka as we know it.

Impossible to do Structural Changes

After 1977 the Sri Lankan legal framework has been crafted to allow corruption, waste and save wrongdoers from their obligation to accountability. This is well understood and many have promised to change it. However, in order to do it, the Constitution must be changed. NPP will not win even 110 seats whereas a constitutional change requires 150 seats. In other words, the NPP regime will be stuck in the same Constitution that is responsible for the present mess.

No Discretionary Funds Available

With a massive debt portfolio of $102 billion (including local rupee loans), debt servicing costs (repayment of interest, loans and loan administration fees) are huge. Once they are paid, and after paying ongoing expenses, mainly salaries, there’d be nothing left. In fact, it’s a deficit after paying these. Funds are needed to do the education and healthcare revolution the NPP promised. It cannot be done without funds.

NPP is unable to take bold decisions to default on loans as it will lack a clear parliamentary majority.

CEPA and Other Indian Challenges

CEPA agreement with India goes well beyond the existing FTA (Free Trade Agreement). It can wipe out local businesses and make local professional unemployed. NPP, UNP, SJB or SLPP, it has to be accepted in some shape or form to maintain a good relationship with India. A JVP-led regime may be the easiest regime in Sri Lanka for India to push this agenda. This is because the NPP is not made up of businessmen whose businesses will be directly affected by CEPA. In fact, if CEPA is signed that will weaken the UNP, SJB and SLPP further as their sponsors’ businesses will be wiped out by the flood of Indian businesses. However, CEPA will ruin the Lankan economy.

If the NPP regime decides not to go ahead with CEPA, India will destabilize the island nation.

Honesty, integrity and good intentions are pathetically insufficient to fix Sri Lanka. Large amounts of dollars are needed to salvage Sri Lanka. Fairy tales about bringing down stolen wealth stored in foreign countries will not materialize simply because they are not true. At least not at a tangible level.

All regimes in Sri Lanka since 2010 failed and could not last their full term with stability due to economic crises and resultant political discord. They included the Mahinda regime, Sirisena, Gotabaya and Ranil. The fate of the AKD regime will not be any different for the same reasons. Hopefully it will not be the case and Sri Lankans will get some respite after long suffering and this projection will prove false.