Courtesy Caracal

As anticipated, Sri Lanka’s newly elected president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, took decisive action on Tuesday, dissolving parliament and announcing a date for a general election. According to a government gazette notification, parliamentary elections are set for November 14, with the newly elected assembly convening on November 21. This move is not merely procedural; it is a fulfillment of a promise Dissanayake made during his campaign-to forge a new government.

He is increasingly confident that the country’s prevailing disillusionment with traditional politics, coupled with the harsh realities of everyday life, may well fuel a rise in communist sentiment among the populace. By expediting the general election, he aims to broaden a voter base that garnered a mere 3% in the previous parliament election, which translated to only three seats out of 225 in parliament. For Dissanayake, the path forward hinges on establishing a legislative body that aligns with his leftist ideology, ensuring not just smooth governance but also a robust platform for policy-making in a time of profound change.

Following Dissanayake’s swearing-in ceremony, Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena resigned, paving the way for Dissanayake to appoint a new prime minister and cabinet. The dissolution of parliament occurred just hours after Dissanayake swore in Harini Amarasuriya as the new interim prime minister, marking the first time in 24 years that a woman had led a Sri Lankan government. At 54, Amarasuriya, a university lecturer and activist, shares a similar background with Dissanayake and is also a member of his Marxist-leaning coalition party. With the communist party now at the helm, they find themselves in need of a functioning parliament.

We cannot analyze the upcoming parliamentary election based on the results of the 2020 election, which followed the parliament under Mahinda Rajapaksa. The economic crisis and the mass protests in 2022, which ultimately forced Rajapaksa to flee the country, have fundamentally altered the political landscape of Sri Lanka. In the 2020 election, Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) achieved a resounding victory, winning 145 out of 225 seats amid allegations of malpractices. The opposition, contesting through various alliances, had little impact; Sajith Premadasa, the runner-up in the presidential race, led the Samagi Jana Balawegaya alliance and secured 55 seats. The Tamil National Alliance, representing the ethnic Tamil minority, emerged as another significant player with 10 seats, while Dissanayake’s National People’s Power coalition placed fourth. However, the political landscape in Sri Lanka has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past four years.

It is more insightful to analyze the recent presidential election, in which the SLPP-despite winning a majority in the last parliamentary elections-nominated a candidate from the Rajapaksa family. Nirmal Rajapaksa managed to garner only 4% of the votes and was ousted in the first round, suggesting the party has lost public support. In contrast, Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former president, contested the election under the banner of the United National Party (UNP)-the country’s long standing political party-receiving 17% of the votes. If the UNP can convert this into parliamentary representation, it could signal a revival for a party that performed poorly in the last parliamentary elections.

The presidential election indicates that the main contest in the upcoming parliamentary elections will likely be between Dissanayake’s National People’s Power and Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya. Both candidates emerged as significant contenders, securing around 40% of the votes in the final round. Dissanayake and his coalition, riding a wave of popularity, may carry this momentum into the upcoming election, while Premadasa, with his established political base and broad support, remains a formidable opponent.

Sri Lanka’s administrative system, a semi-presidential republic, stands apart from those of its neighboring countries, such as India and the United Kingdom. Instead, it draws parallels to the political structures of France and Portugal, where a president coexists with a prime minister and a cabinet, both of whom are accountable to the legislature. As the country approaches a pivotal parliamentary election, the stakes are particularly high.

Should Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) alliance secure a majority, it could usher in a transformative era, shifting the nation from its entrenched Sinhalese nationalist identity toward a left-leaning governance. However, if the NPP fails to achieve this goal, the potential for unrest looms large.

The electorate in Sri Lanka is notably responsive to prevailing trends, and currently, the NPP appears to hold the advantage. This sentiment may signal a significant ideological shift for the island nation, suggesting that Sri Lanka’s political trajectory is poised to lean further to the left.