By: Tamanna Salikuddin;  Nilanthi Samaranayake Courtesy United States Institute of Peace

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s election is the culmination of Sri Lanka’s 2022 protests against the status quo.
• Addressing Sri Lanka’s economic and financial challenges will be Dissanayake’s most difficult task.
• He will have to carefully balance relations with India and China.

Two years after a seismic political and economic crisis rocked Sri Lanka and brought citizens to the streets in mass protests movements that ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s citizens went to the polls to cast their votes for a new president. On September 21, Sri Lankans elected the left-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake over established politicians including incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. Dissanayake’s election represents a clear break from Sri Lanka’s old guard political parties, but he will face similar challenges of navigating economic strain and a shifting geopolitical environment while working to deliver on election promises.

USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin and Nilanthi Samaranayake examine the meaning of Sri Lanka’s election results, the challenges Dissanayake may face in the coming months and what the election could mean for Sri Lanka’s relations with India and China.

Why did Sri Lankans elect Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who beat out candidates from parties that had ruled since independence?

Salikuddin: The election of change candidate” Anura Kumara Dissanayake, popularly known as AKD,” was for many the culmination of the 2022 Aragalya (or people’s struggle”) against Sri Lanka’s status quo politicians, who symbolized corruption, economic mismanagement and lack of governance delivery. Reflecting the anti-incumbency and anti-status quo mood of the country, Dissanayake beat stalwarts of the political scene, including opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe.

While facing its worst economic crisis in 2022 since independence, a multi-month street protest movement brought together a wide array of society and ousted then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, even after the spectacular political movement ousted the president, the parliament (which was dominated by Rajapaksa loyalists and had been elected in 2020) remained in power and chose Ranil Wickremesinghe as the new president.

Wickremesinghe, a long-time politician and political insider, was seen in some ways as an interim leader who was still beholden to an old guard parliament. While he was able to secure a $3 billion IMF program for Sri Lanka, stabilize its economy and repair relations with many foreign donor nations, his tenure was marked by severe austerity under the IMF program and the continued use of the state’s police powers to stifle dissent and protest. The 2024 vote was the first presidential election since the economic crisis, providing Sri Lankans the chance to express their political and economic dissatisfaction at the ballot box.

The results were a clear shift from Sri Lanka’s political past. Dissanayake’s leftist Janatha Vimukkthi Peremuna (JVP) party has never held power and Dissanayake himself only received three percent of the vote in Sri Lanka’s 2019 presidential elections. Meanwhile, the two right-of-center parties that have largely dominated Sri Lanka’s politics since its independence — the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (later with many leaving for the Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) and the United National Party — both performed poorly.

Hailing from a rural Sinhalese family that was far from the elite Colombo political class, Dissanayake’s formative years were marked by experiences of state-led violence, pushing him toward the anti-state JVP. The JVP is widely known for its two violent revolts against Colombo in the 1970s and 1980s. However, Dissanayake has also been a leading force in mainstreaming the party and forming the National People’s Party (NPP), an overarching alliance with a left-of-center tilt that appeals to labor unions and many of the 2022 protesters.

Notably, Dissanayake did not win an outright majority of the vote, and for the first time in Sri Lanka’s history the president was decided by considering the second-choice votes in the rank order voting system. Overall, he garnered about 42% of the vote in the first round, doing less well in the North and East where minority voters have less exposure to Dissanayake and disapprove of his party’s previously ethno-nationalist stances. After being sworn in, Dissanayake dismissed parliament and called for snap general elections on November 14. Those elections will allow a new parliament to take office; one that Dissanayake hopes will yield him substantial parliamentary support allowing his government to fulfill his promised reform agenda.

How does Dissanayake plan to tackle the country’s economic and financial challenges?

Salikuddin: The enduring economic and financial challenges that Sri Lanka faces are the very reason that many citizens voted for Dissanayake, and yet solving those problems will be his most daunting task. While the press has called him a Marxist” given the JVP’s origins, the new president has prioritized the economy and outreach to assure the worried domestic business community and international financial lenders. Dissanayake’s campaign was focused on the need to address corruption, austerity and trade. He has come into power with some level of humility as to what he can fix, but also with a pragmatic message citing the need for unity and sustainable economic growth to raise the standard of living for all Sri Lankans.

His election platform detailed plans to ease the tax burden on the most vulnerable Sri Lankans, cut government corruption and increase transparency, and renegotiate the current $3 billion IMF program. His supporters do expect him to try to ease the austerity measures under the IMF program, but since being elected he has promised to continue the deal. Dissanayake has plans to immediately meet with the IMF for talks and proceed with negotiations to restructure external debt.

While Dissanayake has promised tax cuts and relief for the hardest hit, he is also focused on the need for increasing trade and investment. His platform calls for support to domestic businesses and creating more efficient means for foreign direct investment. His biggest challenges will be dealing with the increased value added tax, market pricing of energy, and the cut in certain wages that have hit working classes much harder than the elite. Additionally, as both external and domestic debt restructuring is being considered, Dissanayake will try to limit the impact on the pensions of workers, including those in the garment industry and tea pickers.

What other challenges does Dissanayake face?

Salikuddin: Despite not winning a majority of the vote, AKD faces high expectations as he has promised to clean up the old politics that got his country into a political and economic mess. In his inaugural address he called for unity among the various ethnic and religious groups in Sri Lanka and has promised to work for the collective benefit of the nation. However, overcoming the entrenched political interests and long-time political culture of corruption will be a monumental task. Additionally, questions of reforming the country’s powerful executive presidency and limiting abuses of broad policing powers will loom over his presidency.

Dissanayake faces high expectations as he has promised to clean up the old politics that got his country into a political and economic mess.

The first step of trying to enact reform will be winning parliamentary support in the general elections in November. JVP held only three seats in the previous parliament and upcoming elections will be a test of AKD’s broader support base and whether it can translate into a parliamentary majority. More than likely, Dissanayake’s party will have to form a coalition government after the November elections, making reforms more challenging.

The JVP and Dissanayake’s government will have to win over Tamils and Muslims in the North and East who largely did not support him. The JVP is still remembered as a Sinhalese nationalist party that supported the government in the long ethnic civil war, and one that opposed devolution or federalism for the country’s Tamils. Dissanayake will have to work hard to gain the acceptance of the minority communities at a time when they feel increasingly fractured and unrepresented in Sri Lankan politics.

How might Dissanayake’s election impact relations with India and China?

Samaranayake: Dissanayake’s victory is historic not only for Sri Lanka’s domestic politics but also for its international relations. The JVP has historically been perceived as anti-India, raising questions about how the NPP coalition leadership will manage relations with Sri Lanka’s largest neighbor. Yet, New Delhi saw the electoral winds shifting early and was proactive in its outreach, especially when considering the disruptions to its Neighborhood First” policy following leadership changes in Maldives, Nepal and Bangladesh. Dissanayake was invited to visit India in February, sending a message at the time about the prospect of an NPP victory in the fall.

Much goodwill has already been exchanged between senior Sri Lankan and Indian officials. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent congratulations to Dissanayake and expressed his desire to advance bilateral cooperation. India’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, highlighted the depth of the two countries’ civilizational ties,” and India’s high commissioner to Sri Lanka, Santosh Jha, termed India as Sri Lanka’s civilizational twin.” Dissanayake has responded favorably to overtures from Indian officials. Sri Lanka and India will need to work together on a range of issues, from trade and connectivity to the representation of the Tamil communities in Sri Lanka (an issue of deep interest for New Delhi).

Yet, Dissanayake may need to make choices that could upset India, including over China. Not much is known about how the NPP administration will approach its foreign policy toward China, despite historical linkages in leftist ideology. Broadly, Dissanayake has stated his aversion to Sri Lanka being caught up in geopolitical rivalry and sandwiched” between China and India. Specifically, his administration may oppose a wind power project by the Indian Adani Group and could advance discussions toward a free trade agreement with China. The new government will also need to make a decision about whether to permit visits by Chinese research ships, which had been halted under a moratorium that is expected to expire in January. The moratorium was announced as a temporary measure to defuse criticism from India and the U.S.

As was the case during Maldives’ controversial leadership transition, the result of Sri Lanka’s parliamentary elections in November will be an important factor in New Delhi’s determination of its level of support for Dissanayake’s leadership and willingness to work together especially over difficult issues. Yet, Dissanayake’s primary international challenges transcend an India-China framing. More immediately, he will need to work with the IMF and other partners to continue the process of stabilizing Sri Lanka’s economy while making austerity policies more tolerable for citizens, reducing corruption and reforming the government.