South Asia Foresight Network (SAFN)

Abeyagoonasekera outlined how Sri Lanka’s evolving political landscape under the NPP offers an opportunity to strengthen its role within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He emphasized the importance of fostering pragmatic, synergetic cooperation between Sri Lanka and China, particularly through the BRI, as a pathway to support national development and modernization in a rapidly changing global environment.

Xi’an, China (14^th October 2024) – At the 2nd Belt and Road International Think Tank Cooperation and Silk Road International Communication Forum in Xi’an, China, renowned Sri Lankan geopolitical analyst and former Director General of the Institute of National Security Studies(INSS) Asanga Abeyagoonasekera delivered an address, stressing the pragmatic synergy between Sri Lanka and China within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Drawing from the political theories of Antonio Gramsci, Abeyagoonasekera outlined how Sri Lanka, under the newly elected leadership of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, can strategically partner with China to advance national development while effectively navigating the shifting complexities of the global geopolitical landscape. Following is the full speech:

Distinguished panelist, guests, ladies and gentlemen. I thank Xinhua Institute for the kind invitation. I am deeply honoured to present at this important conference on the Belt and Road International Think Tank Cooperation and the 2^nd Silk Road(Xi’an) International Communication Forum in Xi’an. I had the privilege of presenting a Sri Lankan perspective at the inaugural conference in 2023 and the 2^nd BRI conference today. I thank China for appreciating my research on the subject of BRI.

The world we live is facing complex challenges with two full scale wars in two geographies. More than 40,000 people have died in Palestine, a serious an alarming concern for the entire global community. Unfortunately, we are still at a zero-sum, hegemonic mentality failing to find Synergetic relations where countries can work together to enrich human lives and collaboratively finding solutions for many global challenges. I wrote my paper Sri Lanka’s Strategic Role in Belt and Road Cooperation with China: A Gramscian Analysis reflecting on Antonio Gramsci’s work and applying to find solutions to the new worldorder as Gramsci aptly observed, “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born”.

In the aftermath of Sri Lanka’s 2024 presidential election, which saw Anura Kumara Dissanayake(AKD) rise to power, the nation faces pivotal questions regarding its geopolitical future—particularly its relationship with China’s Belt and Road Initiative(BRI). As the world transitions into the ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’, marked by the convergence of technological advancements and global modernisation, high-quality Belt and Road cooperation presents an opportunity for developing nations like Sri Lanka to align with China, a global leader in economic transformation.

My paper examines Sri Lanka’s evolving role within the BRI framework through the theoretical lens of Antonio Gramsci, the renowned Marxist political thinker. Gramsci’s concepts of hegemony, transformismo, and passive revolution provide an essential framework for understanding Sri Lanka’s strategic positioning under AKD’s pragmatic leadership. In the backdrop of Sri Lanka’s ‘People’s Uprising’ in 2022, a political party, National Peoples Power(NPP), with a past Marxist ideological leaning with its foundational structure at Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna(JVP), has come to power, defeating the traditional two political parties or their coalitions. The paper explores the ideological evolution of the NPP by comparing the strength of Marxist ideology in Sri Lanka’s new political party and its reformist tendencies in political movements across a sample of countries, including China.

The new president AKD’s approach balances Sri Lanka’s national interests and the broader geopolitical dynamics influencing its development trajectory. There are many lessons that Sri Lanka could learn from China’s economic miracle from 1978 to the present leadership of President Xi Jinping, who ‘inherited and carried forward Deng’s legacy through comprehensively deepening reform’. Sri Lanka’s pivotal role as a strong BRI partner and a historic China-centric ‘Peking wing’ oriented political party, the JVP in the background, will open a window of opportunity for the new administration to position with the BRI. This analysis will explore how, under AKD’s stewardship, Sri Lanka might leverage its partnership with China to enhance national growth while navigating multiple geopolitical pressures.