Dilrook Kannangara

The electorate is fractionalized as never before. SJB shares a disproportionately large chunk of the Muslim vote. It is so large comparatively that a large portion of SJB’s elected MPs will be Muslims. It is also supported by strong Muslim support for the SJB at the presidential election where Sajith won all Muslim majority electorates in both 2019 and 2024.

SJB voters may be disappointed as their choice may not be elected to parliament due to this reality. Their votes will only boost the total SJB vote helping those who vote as a bloc to their community candidates but will be insufficient to send most of their very own choices to parliament.

This development will have significant implications in both Sri Lankan politics and policy. The ruling party is not likely to have many elected MPs from minority communities which will drive them to appease minorities with the false hope of winning their vote the next time. While it is a self-defeating and suicidal political strategy, it will guide Sri Lanka’s political outlook for the next few years.

However, the nation must carefully avoid local and international pitfalls this situation presents. The government must not be directed by the main Opposition. It has been voted into power to deliver certain national priorities, not sectarian ones. Relations with India, USA and Israel must follow what benefits Sri Lanka, not an individual community.

The SJB must also ensure that it’s party values and policies are not overly aligned to one community but remain focused on national issues instead. Otherwise, it will be taken over by one section at the expense of others.

On the other hand, this fractionalization of the SJB allows the other national parties – SLPP, UNP (contesting under a new name), Sarvajana Balaya and another party led by a former MP – to gain seats at the expense of the SJB. All these other parties can produce only Sinhala MPs as they have no minority support today. This also makes it difficult to take a joint stand on issues in parliament. The large Muslim contingent within the SJB will be willing to work with the ruling party than others in the Opposition. It will be the task of the SJB leadership to keep all that under control.