The Political Tsunami in Sri Lanka’s Parliamentary Elections
Posted on November 17th, 2024
Shenali D Waduge
Parliamentary elections in recent years had never seen what resulted in nothing short of a tsunami on 14 November 2024. The silver lining was that virtually all of the old brigade who had entered parliament from different parties were voted out. A single party for the first time gained a majority in Parliament sans any alliance king-makers. Even JR Jayawardena would have been amused at the outcome. His nephew can be credited with paving the way for this landslide victory though we cannot ignore the 6million who did not vote echoing a growing dissent & distrust for people’s representatives. Ironically, this 6m contributed to the landslide victory. The manner that a virtually unknown group merged with a party who had over the years propped other parties to power & thereafter pulled their legs making governance impossible, had suddenly got the thumbs up to rule Sri Lanka, and entered history books alongside their preferential votes that have also broken records.
To understand this tsunami, the mainstream political parties must hold themselves accountable. People placed their trust in them but they had failed to deliver. Part blame must go to the general public as well who had after 1977 settled into a capitalist culture that involved importing everything & anything ignoring the inflating cost required to import while people & politicians never bothered to question the widening balance sheet as each government was happy to take more loans, pass the burden of repayment on the general public & the general public never questioning that it was their artificial lifestyle that was attributing to the increasing loans plus interest that they were paying. This reality was always hidden behind the hora hora” campaigns.
The state of the State coffers together with wastage & Public Sector corruption was always ignored & will continue to be until & unless the root cause of the issue is identified first. The public sector apparatus is where the problem prevails. However, where the people and the present government would clash is the moment any comforts are reduced. This is what took place in 2022. Therefore, the government while unable to continue the same formula followed by previous governments will be walking a tight rope in the changes they have to make for their own survival. They cannot give excuses as previous governments have. The people cannot expect changes unless they too are willing to change.
The AKD NPP have to deliver & take drastic actions that other governments dared not. Voters demand change & want to see change. How AKD NPP will make the drastic changes while keeping its popularity is left to be seen.
In such a scenario, previous governments who were hard pressed to take decisions that were unsavory to the people always ended up introducing new carrots to divert attention. Thus, it is more than likely that this government too would come up with a new constitution”. The economic embargo Nepal suffered as a result of not including clauses India wanted into Nepalese new constitution suffices AKD & NPP not to tread on similar paths given Sri Lanka has buried itself too much into the Indian sphere of influence. It is equally important to see the dangers of who is asking for new constitutions” – the first to congratulate & clearly articulate a new constitution has been a Canadian LTTE front! AKD NPP must remember that Canadian LTTE did not vote them to power! The People of Sri Lanka did. They voted for a UNITARY Sri Lanka not a DIVIDED ONE.
Geopolitics & NPP
AKD & NPP must be mindful of not compromising the sovereignty of Sri Lanka for international popularity as these are all camouflaged to eventually bring them down. Becoming popular with the so-called international community cannot come at the sacrifice of the local communities. If gaining popularity requires AKD-NPP to weaken the armed forces, police & intel, integrate Sri Lanka to foreign systems, these only will quicken another political tsunami. Therefore, the assurance given to protect State assets & resources cannot result in handing these over to the enemy. AKD-NPP should not create grounds for another regime change therefore a well-planned diplomatic balancing act is necessary.
With American nationalism coming to the fore resulting in President Trump taking over, his emphasis will turn to making America great again & will desist from creating new wars or continuing unnecessary conflicts. This is welcome news for Sri Lanka & most nations of the world. A major part of his campaign was concentrated on traditional values & the manner the woke agenda/LGBTQIA had broken up families, children, youth & adults & he has promised to end this agenda & allow children to lead normal lives without being surgically operated to turn girls into boys & boys into girls. This agenda, that Dolawatte initiated in Sri Lanka & being promoted by the NPP PM also needs to be shoved aside & not allowed to be implemented in Sri Lanka. President AKD like Trump must protect the child & youth from this global woke agenda.
Tamils & NPP
The reason why Tamils voted for NPP & not the traditional Tamil political parties need to be audited as it would necessarily negate & reject what Tamil political leaders have been seeking via their representations in Parliament. Previous two occasions that Tamils voted for anyone other than Tamils was in 2010 (in favor of Fonseka at the Presidential Elections & 2015 (in favor of Sirisena at the Presidential elections) when India influenced the vote. Whether North & Central Province was equally influenced by India in 2024 is left to be seen. However, an expert on South Asian geopolitics claims US diplomatic influence is what brought AKD NPP to power.
Presuming that Tamils have rejected demands of Tamil politicians, this negates the Tamil political demand for release of bogus political prisoners” which invariably are hard core LTTE in prison. State land cannot be categorized as occupied land” & to be released. In fact, the NPP must remove the Thesavalamai laws that deny other Tamils from owning land in Jaffna except the Vellala Tamils. This poses a bigger restriction to majority of Tamils. No one who has no deed to lands cannot use protests to demand state land be given to them.
The NPP government should not be foolish to accept Mullaivaikkal genocide” as this is nothing but mourning dead LTTE when none of these ceremonies mourn any of the other Tamil militant dead & their families are not even allowed to mourn their dead by the LTTE supporters. NPP should not continue the mistakes of previous parties by being held to ransom with these bogus chants which are not the voice of the majority of Tamils in the North. All of these demands are coming from pro-LTTE living in mostly western nations.
Similarly, NPP should not repeal the PTA. Only those who wish to commit terror want this Act to be repealed. Before making any decision to abolish the Executive Presidency, it is important to answer who are those who wish to abolish it & why do they want to abolish it. The answer will give the reason why it should not be abolished! When demands are coming from overseas LTTE fronts, the people are curiously watching what President AKDs & NPPs response are.
The President cannot forget the thousands of JVP youth who died sacrificing their lives against India, the 13thamendment & the PC System. The President would realize what a burden the system is on the state & find a new way to ensure efficiency of the system instead of it becoming a stepping stone to federalism & thereafter separatism. How separatism follows federalism is something for the new MPs of the Parliament to quickly study & appraise themselves of before taking any rash decisions.
The caste factor is such that voting a Sinhalese is considered better than voting lower caste Tamils contesting! Then again like the voters from the rest of the country, the Tamils would have also wanted to get rid of the aging MPs who have been coming in & out of Parliament & doing little for the Tamil people & decided to give fresh faces a chance.
The President & NPP must be quick to identify what the majority Tamil people actually want & dismiss what the self-serving ITAK demanded. This is where NPP can build a better rapport with the people of the North & South.
Muslims in NPP
Despite the links to Ibrahim & the suicide bombers of Easter Sunday, appointing a Muslim as Governor Western province was a clear signal that the Muslims had decided to throw their eggs into the NPP basket. This was seen by the many social media propaganda steered by supporters with Muslim names. Moreover, the visit by the President on election day to Panchikawatte was another signal whom to vote. Would this support, prevent action against those guilty of money laundering, smuggling, drug peddling & defaulting state taxes!
Catholics & NPP
The Cardinal did not mince his words after casting his vote & very openly declared who the Catholics should vote for in what has to be considered a violation of election laws. As a controversial figure, the Cardinal continues to live on extensions using the Easter Sunday justice” as ruse which AKD & NPP are now well aware of.
The forgotten Sinhala Buddhists
Sadly, majority of politicians & political parties including the JVP & NPP enjoy only advocating the so-called grievances of the minorities. Never have they spoken a word about the difficulties the majority Sinhala Buddhists undergo especially those who live as a minority in areas where the minorities are the majority. It is unfortunate that historically, too it is members of the minority who have come forward to speak on behalf of the Sinhalese. It was Lakshman Kadiragamar who was the architect of UN celebrating Vesak! Likewise, it was SWRD Bandaranaike & the 1957 Social Disabilities Act that allowed low caste Tamils to go to school which the high castes had denied them.
Who are the NPP?
When regime change took place in 2015 orchestrated by US & India bringing yahapalana to power, AKD & JVP played a pivotal role. Part of the regime change was the breakup of the main political parties – thus SLFP was broken to form SLPP, UNP was broken to form SJB & JVP was broken to form NPP. These were to become the new faces of politics.
As expected, SLPP swept local government elections in 2018 & brought GR to power in 2019 with a 2/3 majority given in 2020. GR proved himself a weak leader & a well-choreographed peoples revolt took place in 2022, entrusting power to the person whose loans taken between 2015-2019 were the reason for the economic crisis! Nevertheless, he ended up doing SLPP a favor by transferring all the tarnished MPs of SLPP into his cylinder camp thus cleansing the SLPP & given it a chance to resurrect itself with proper people’s vision. How they will do so is left to be seen & would spell the fate of the party & its leaders.
The fate of the SJB looks more or less clear but politics is a game of possibilities & one may never know the NPP PM may be tasked to merge the UNP & SJB & become its leader as a future challenge to NPP. Politics is a game of chess & political pawns are moved by unforeseen forces!
Post-2022 revolt, the NPP embraced all of the aggrieved people in SLPP, UNP, SJB & many other parties. More than a political party, NPP comprised people who were angry and had some sort of settle to score. This pent-up emotions suffices to build political momentum and the expats overseas who also wanted to settle scores were only too happy to join.
Thus, the so-called pseudo-Leftist Marxist JVP merged with a neo-colonial liberal thinking set of people whose ideology was to bring CHANGE”. Ignoring or not taking lessons from history will ink their future & deliver hard lessons that they will only learn from experience!
The Parliament is cleansed of the old brigade of all shades. This is welcome news.
The new faces cannot commit or repeat the same mistakes.
The wish-list of those who voted & those who did not vote is long & demanding.
This places the President & the new Government on a very tricky footing. The President & NPP leaders will be haunted by the promises they made.
The NPP has a clear majority. There are no king-makers to bribe & prevent their decisions. The people are expecting magic. The NPP & President have to deliver. What they chose to deliver will decide their fate. Now that the people have realized that they don’t need to wait 5 years to overthrow governments, the people (those who voted & those who didn’t) will be ruthless in their expectations while geopolitically, pressure will be exerted to weaken Sri Lanka’s ability to rise & making Sri Lanka further vulnerable. Across the Palk Strait, the rise of a new face will see emergence of new Tamil nationalism which will prove counter to India’s Arkhand Bharath agenda. Both are dangerous scenarios for Sri Lanka & require AKD NPP to take stock before making internal decisions.
Are NPP politicians atuned to the geopolitical historical scenarios, as they cannot be frogs in the well especially in a Parliament full of freshers who are vulnerable to fall for all sorts of traps including those coated in honey!
Shenali D Waduge