Dilrook Kannangara

Though the 2024 election outcome in the north, east and other areas of high minority population density seems promising of a united Sri Lanka, it has happened before. Yes; we have been through it before and the end was a disaster. When basic needs of minorities are challenged, they turn towards Sinhala political parties. Once they are satisfied, they turn back towards Tamil and Muslim tribal politics. NPP became darlings of minorities only because of the continuing economic hardships minorities and the entire nation go through. If or when minorities no longer have these economic hardships, Tamil and Muslim nationalist and sectarian parties become appealing again. These parties though suffered a small setback are still holding ground ready to pounce. It is a matter of time.

This can be explained through Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs. 

It is a human motivation theory. It explains what drives a human from one need to another. There are 5 types of needs. They are ranked from the bottom to the top. At the very bottom are physiological needs like food, shelter, clothing and other survival needs. Once these needs are satisfied, humans tend to look for the next level needs which are safety and security needs including health, education, employment, stability of life and property/investments. If they too are satisfied, humans seek next level needs which are love and belonging needs including friends, family and society. If they too are satisfied, they move up to self-esteem needs which include social standing, respect from the society and asserting one’s uniqueness against others. These needs are also seen in communities. At this stage a community that is aware of their own identity may want to assert themselves into nationhood, if denied by then. Once these needs are also satisfied, the person moves to self-actualization needs which include searching for the meaning of life and other philosophical needs. It only occurs in individuals. This rarely happens as very few people are able to satisfy all other needs.

Sri Lanka’s entire population including minorities are struggling to meet their physiological and safety and social security needs in the current dire economic situation. Self-esteem needs are not appealing now. Survival and stability in the economic front are more important. That is why minorities, particularly Tamils, broke ranks from their past voting behavior and voted for the NPP. If or when things improve self esteem needs become more dominant and Tamil tribal political parties will become more appealing once again.

There were short spells of Tamils co-operating with Sinhala political parties when their basic needs were under threat. These times include 1915-21, 1931-32, 1941-45, 1947-49, 1965-72, 1994-95, 2001-03 and 2015-16. All these were short lived. The moment their basic needs were satisfied they dumped co-operation and took up sectarian demands.

The same can be seen in Tamil Nadu, India where 90% of world Tamils live. Only about 5% of world Tamils live in Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu sets all trends for the rest of the community to following in politics, music, styles and everything else. Tamil nationalism was highest when Tamil Nadu made steady economic and cultural progress. As economic growth rate cools and as security threats rise, they have become less demanding and more compliant.

Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it. These events will repeat; the NPP honeymoon will also end as all previous honeymoons ended. It is wise for the ruling party to be aware of this, manage expectations and prepare for the eventual fallout. If they put most development, education, social empowerment, land distribution and other eggs in the minority basket, they will lose everything and head towards an inglorious exit. It pays for the NPP to remember the community that stood by them for 57 years through trying times, made tremendous sacrifices and believed in the movement. The demise of the UNP, SLFP and SLPP can be traced to moving away from their core voting community trying to win hearts and minds of newcomers. It lost them both camps and condemned them to the political rubbish bin. The majority community is unforgiving and vicious if they don’t get the attention they deserve. Only they can and have written the epitaph of political movements of this island, not others. (ITAK, ACTC, CWC, SLMC, ACMC and the like still go strong.) Unlike minority voters, the majority will not hesitate a second to write the epitaph of their political parties including the NPP if it follows the hearts and minds campaigns of wooing minorities carried forward by the UNP, SLFP and SLPP. It must be remembered that these parties had their heyday when they were strongly aligned with the majority. That’s when they thought they were unshakable.