Forecast of the results of the General Elections.
Posted on October 7th, 2024
Vichara
Produced below is an extract of the Official Results of the Presidential Election 2024
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| Number of Members | Province | Dissanayake | Premadasa | Wickremesinghe | |||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||||||||
| Ampara 7 | Eastern | 108,971 | 25.74% | 200,384 | 47.33% | 86,589 | 20.45% | ||||||||
| Anurapura 9 | North Central | 285,944 | 47.37% | 202,289 | 33.51% | 82,152 | 13.61% | ||||||||
| Badulla 9 | Uva | 197,283 | 34.68% | 219,674 | 38.61% | 115,138 | 20.34% | ||||||||
| Battical 7 | Eastern | 38,832 | 12.19% | 139,110 | 43.66% | 91,132 | 28.60% | ||||||||
| Colombo 18 | Western | 629,963 | 47.21% | 342,108 | 25.64% | 281,436 | 21.09% | ||||||||
| Galle 9 | Southern | 366,721 | 51.45% | 189,555 | 26.59% | 107,336 | 15.06% | ||||||||
| Gampaha 19 | Western | 809,410 | 55.50% | 349,550 | 23.97% | 216,028 | 14.81% | ||||||||
| Hambanto 7 | Southern | 221,913 | 51.96% | 131,503 | 30.79% | 33,217 | 7.78% | ||||||||
| Jaffna 6 | Northern | 27,086 | 7.29% | 121,177 | 32.60% | 84,558 | 22.75% | ||||||||
| Kalutara 11 | Western | 387,764 | 47.43% | 236,307 | 28.91% | 143,285 | 17.53% | ||||||||
| Kandy 12 | Central | 394,534 | 42.26% | 323,998 | 34.71% | 162,707 | 17.43% | ||||||||
| Kegalle 9 | Sabaragamuwa | 247,179 | 43.39% | 185,930 | 32.64% | 106,510 | 18.70% | ||||||||
| Kurunegal 15 | North Western | 544,763 | 48.20% | 368,290 | 32.58% | 146,520 | 12.96% | ||||||||
| Matale 5 | Central | 140,544 | 41.37% | 121,803 | 35.85% | 53,829 | 15.84% | ||||||||
| Matara 7 | Southern | 287,662 | 52.46% | 147,462 | 26.89% | 79,249 | 14.45% | ||||||||
| Monaraga 6 | Uva | 140,269 | 41.86% | 134,238 | 40.06% | 35,728 | 10.66% | ||||||||
| N’ Eliya 8 | Central | 105,057 | 22.17% | 201,814 | 42.58% | 138,619 | 29.25% | ||||||||
| Polonnaru 5 | North Central | 130,880 | 46.12% | 100,730 | 35.49% | 36,908 | 13.00% | ||||||||
| Puttalam 8 | North Western | 207,134 | 44.06% | 173,382 | 36.88% | 60,719 | 12.92% | ||||||||
| Ratnapura 9 | Sabaragamuwa | 291,708 | 39.32% | 257,721 | 34.74% | 145,038 | 19.55% | ||||||||
| Trinco 4 | Eastern | 49,886 | 20.83% | 120,588 | 50.36% | 40,496 | 16.91% | ||||||||
| Vanni 6 | Northern | 21,412 | 9.86% | 95,422 | 43.92% | 52,573 | 24.20% | ||||||||
| Total 173 | 5,634,915 | 42.31% | 4,363,035 | 32.76% | 2,299,767 | 17.27% | |||||||||
In the raw statistics of the island-wide results of the votes cast at the last Presidential election it is noted that the NPP polled only 42% of the votes and the opposition together polled 50 percent of the votes with a million votes more than the NPP. On this basis the opposition argues that they can muster a majority in the next Parliament. The picture changes drastically when the statistics are desegregated. The NPP has won with a 40% majority and over in 13 Districts where the total number of members to be returned is 173. In the 8 Districts where the NPP polled less than 40% are due to return only 53 members. Here again other than in Jaffna and Batticaloa the NPP is likely to return at least one member each and 2 from Ratnapura making a pessimistic total of 7 members. The triumph at the Presidential elections will motivate elector who did not cast their votes to increase the NPP performance. NPP needs to return only 85% of the 173 members and the seven out of 53 to make an absolute majority in the next Parliament (147+7=154). They need to win only 62% of the173 to secure a simple majority (62% of 173=107 +7=114).
This cursory projection is made on the premise that the electors who voted 40 % and over at the last election will not change their minds. It is unlikely that those who deliberately wrenched themselves out of old loyalties will go back again. They will be eager to ensure the systems change they wanted.
Vichara