Dr Sudath Gunasekara.13th Novem 2024. Mahanuwara

 In the light of the prevailing utterly confused and divided and completely lost electorate, I opine it  is a foregone conclusion that no party will get a clear majority to form a stable government at this election. The nation is stranded and dying in the midst of a vast sandy desert where there is no hope of a drop of water to drink.

Thanks to Ranil and Sajith on the one hand and thanks to Chandrika, Mahinda and Sirisena on the other, the UNP and the SLFP are already dead and buried long time ago with no chance of any revival at all, as formidable political forces in the country any more. Their misdeeds and blunders have driven the masses to look for an alternative in desperation to save their lives between the devil and the mid seas.

It is under such a unfortunate situation, where there is no hope of any political salvation, the JVP has extended its hands to save a sinking nation in mid seas. Today the JVP appears to be the best organized political party, particularly at the grassroot level that can give a ray of hope for a desperately sinking nation. But it too lacks any farseeing vision or a clear plan of addressing the burning issues of this country such as the skyrocketing cost of living or a solid future plan for nation building. Its powerful rhetoric against the past regimes and the class grievance articulated, setting the have nots against the haves are the motive engines of attracting the votes of the depressed and depressed masses that has catapulted them to power. The blunders of all other major traditional parties like the UNP, SLFP and the SLPP in the recent past have driven the masses in to a dream world of imaginary utopian world of their own. Whether they will enter a utopian world of plenty and prosperity or a world of more chaos and confusion under the new regime is a moot question. It is in to this world of uncertainty; the results of tomorrows election will definitely take this nation.

My perception of the election results of the 196 elected members on the 14^th is

1.No single party will get a majority to form a government.

1 Nevertheless it is discerned the JVP will lead the election results. But it is doubtful whether it will get a solid majority to form a government of their own. It might end up somewhere around 75 to 80 seats the most.

2 Jaatika Samangi Bala Wegaya will come second with around 60- 70

3 The Dilip J’s bracelet might emerge as the third force with about 25-30

4 All others might get about 25 including the 17 Tamil MPP in the North and east.

5 Even if the Gase cylinder, the SLPP and the SLFP end up with no elected seat, it wants be a surprise.

This situation will most probably create a situation that no party will get 113, even with the national list members to form a stable government. Under this situation most probably Dilip Jayaweeras bracelet will be the deciding factor in forming the next government and it will definitely be a coalition Government and the bracelet might emerge as the party with the highest bargaining power, destined to play a major role in Sri Lankan politics.