If January 2015 Was a General Election, UPFA Would Have Won 108 Seats and UNP Just 91
Posted on July 25th, 2015
Dilrook Kannangara
January 2015 election brought together all strange bedfellows to defeat Mahinda. However, they contest separately in General Elections. If the January 2015 election was a General Election, UPFA led by Mahinda would have cruised home with 108 seats (still falling short of 113). But UNP would have won just 91 seats, JVP 10 and TNA 16 seats.
It is extremely unlikely JVP and TNA would join UNP to form a government.
UPFA must make the most of this division of the Swan Alliance at the August election. What is even more encouraging is there are Sirisena supporters in UPFA as well. They would bring votes that went against UPFA in January.
The following is based on 2015 January election. Opposition seats are allocated to the 3 parties – UNP, JVP and TNA based on their respective performance in 2010. It is not a projection of August election results as ground realities have changed.
| DISTRICT | UPFA | UNP | JVP | TNA |
| Anuradhapura District | 5 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Badulla District | 4 | 5 | – | – |
| Batticaloa District | 1 | – | – | 4 |
| Colombo District | 8 | 9 | 2 | – |
| Digamadulla District | 2 | 4 | – | 1 |
| Galle District | 6 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Gampaha District | 9 | 7 | 2 | – |
| Hambantota District | 5 | 2 | – | – |
| Jaffna District | 1 | 1 | – | 4 |
| Kalutara District | 6 | 3 | 1 | – |
| Kegalle District | 5 | 4 | – | – |
| Kurunegala District | 9 | 6 | 1 | – |
| Mahanuwara District | 5 | 7 | – | – |
| Matale District | 3 | 2 | – | – |
| Matara District | 5 | 2 | 1 | – |
| Moneragala District | 4 | 2 | – | – |
| NuwaraEliya District | 2 | 5 | – | – |
| Polonnaruwa District | 2 | 3 | – | – |
| Puttalam District | 3 | 5 | – | – |
| Ratnapura District | 7 | 4 | – | – |
| Trincomalee District | 1 | 1 | – | 2 |
| Vanni District | 1 | 1 | – | 3 |
| SUBTOTAL | 94 | 79 | 9 | 14 |
| NATIONAL LIST | 14 | 12 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 108 | 91 | 10 | 16 |
July 25th, 2015 at 5:52 am
We should not sit on our past laurels but cover all aspects. In another article it has been pointed out about Sinhala Christian votes going to UNP. We should address this urgently.If I’m not wrong,Carlo Fonseka who was riding ‘high’ as a rationalist has come down now to become a beloved Christian so MR camp should use him in the forefront of the campaign to get Sinhala Christian votes. Other one is Dayan J who is also in the MR camp.They should be told to address the Christian voters directly & should be seen meeting the Christian clergy & their associations to get the confidence of Christian voters to MR. Are there ministerial candidates who are Christian who should join this crusade. Time to action in every aspect.
July 25th, 2015 at 6:58 am
CARLO HAS ALWAYS BEEN A STAUNCH CATHOLIC. HE WAS MY CLASS-MATE.
July 25th, 2015 at 7:17 am
The 91 seats are not ‘natural’ UNP seats, as Maithripala was a ‘common’ candidate siphoning off UPFA votes based on the phony good governance issue.
This time around, nearly everyone knows from the bond fraud that the UNP is not really about good governance at all, so we will see a more traditional voting pattern with a much larger UPFA total.