The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna/National People’s Power candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake rides high on opinion polls, social media posts, Twitter and Facebook likes and the crowd size.
While none of them offers a credible measure of popular support, some local pundits take pride in parroting them, which are then regurgitated by foreign media and embassy cables. Funny enough, the election analysis in this country has become yet another echo chamber of a small incestual circle of participants and data. (That’s how NGO activism in this country happened in the past).
Anura Kumara Dissanayake
For starters, those opinion polls smack of manipulation, either deliberately or due to prohibitively small and corrupted sample sizes. That gives the impression they are part of a greater scheme of things. As far as the social media hype is concerned, the JVP has a dedicated cadre base to undertake the laborious work, even though similar services and more could be purchased for a modest sum in countless Telegram groups.
Realistic number
A more realistic number for Dissanayake would be around 20 per cent of the popular vote under the most optimistic scenario, which is way short of the presidency, though a great leap forward from less than Five per cent the JVP polled in the past.
However, given the real or feigned popular enthusiasm for a JVP presidency and a JVP government, let’s consider a hypothetical situation where the JVP is in the driving seat of the presidency and the government.
Given that there is no historical precedent of a JVP-controlled government, analysing its future conduct would be a tall order. Interestingly, that lack of exposure to the art of governance, other than the short stint of Co-habitation with the Chandrika Kumaratunga administration in early 2000, has become the raison d’etre to vote for the JVP. In the absence of a comparable local precedent, one way to predict the behaviour of a JVP government would be to analyse how similarly ideologically inclined parties who also share a similar lived experience (i.e. a militant past) conducted themselves when in power.
Placing JVP’s left in the international Left
Political Left spans a wide spectrum as wide-ranging as Scandinavian social democrats in one extreme to French and British left and similarly positioned selected Latin American left parties, such as in Lula de Silva’s Workers Party in Brazil to one party states in China, Cuba, Vietnam and North Korea in the other extreme.
They are vastly different. The Scandinavian Left is deeply rooted in the free- market capitalist system and electoral democracy. They emphasise redistribution of social justice and wealth, which they can afford, given the surplus wealth generated over time and high-income tax collection. Whereas the JVP, which claims to represent the poor, opposes the even modest income tax threshold that affects only the country’s upper 20-30 per cent income brackets.
Listening to the social welfare policies of the JVP, one might ponder whether it is a sister party of the Swedish Social Democrats. However, the stubborn reality is that such an extensive array of welfarism is not feasible within the means of Sri Lanka, which had a meagre 9.8 per cent of tax revenue to GDP in 2023. At the same time, Sri Lanka is still a more expansive welfare state than any of the Communist one-party states, from Cuba to China. Similarly, the most successful party states, Vietnam and China, are more capitalist and mercantilist than the majority of capitalist European states. The difference in the one-party state is their near absolute monopoly in political power, which leaves no room for dissent.
Thankfully, the JVP cannot replicate that amount of absolute control without remaking the constitution in Sri Lanka.
So, where does JVP fit in? In between the above two extremes, there is another identical set of parties: the chaotic, militant Left that is still dominant in Latin America, in countries such as Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, etc. Those parties are not necessarily card-carrying electoral democrats, but they have come to power through elections. They do not offer viable economic policies, though they have done well during commodity booms in dolling out the state’s riches and cultivating large patronage networks.
Welfarism
That is the kind of welfarism one should expect from the JVP, a ruinous and perilous economic exercise that comes at the expense of the nation’s future.
There is another similarity between these parties and the JVP, differentiating them from the traditional European or South Asian Left.
The traditional Left considers elections the only legitimate source of power. In contrast, these groups, given their militant past and ideological orientation, believe in hybrid sources of power, including the use of force- the barrel of the gun- and populist legitimacy alike.
When their populist legitimacy wanes due to their miserable economic handling, they resort to force. That may explain why ruling parties in these countries have refused to give up power after losing multiple elections. It is not an exaggeration that the JVP shares all their traits.
If you want to look for where a future JVP government would fit, don’t look for Sweden; look for Nicaragua.
First two years of JVP govt.
AKD presidency would naturally be followed by a VP government, and initially, there would be an all-encompassing positive vibe. A comparative local analogy would be Chandrika Kumaratunga’s presidency, ending the 17 years of UNP rule. We all know how it turned out at the end. Like Chandrika, the JVP would be a prisoner of its stakeholders and its own ideology. Economic rot will set sooner than the ink dries up in appointment letters to the JVP ministers. Thanks to Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Central Bank Governor, the JVP has US$ 5.6 billion to splash over its promised freebies and salary hikes. But these monies will run out soon, and with the rupee on a free fall, Sri Lanka will enter Gotabaya Part 2 in no less than two years. But, don’t expect the JVP to give up power willingly because the JVP, like any revolutionary party with a militant past, believes in hybrid sources of power. It may fail in a complete state capture in two years so that it could send a compliant military to crack down on the protest. But that need not to be. The hordes of party cadres would do the job. One reason why Bangladeshi protests became exceedingly violent was due to the militant student union of the ruling Awami League taking on protesters.
Never ends
If the JVP manages to avoid the immediate economic collapse, it would have three more years. During that period, hard-line Marxists would take control from gullible professionals and social liberals who had joined ranks under the National People’s Power.
The JVP’s economic policies have been tried before. The left-leaning Sirimavo Bandaranaike government in 1970-77 was the most infamous and ruinous. The JVP’s five years in power would be as bad as that or worse. Sri Lanka would add another five years of lost growth.
However, the international experience across much of Latin America tells that the militant Left does not leave power when they lose elections. When that happens, Sri Lankans would remember Gotabaya Rajapaksa as a convent nun, compared to the horror they would encounter. Avoid that eventuality before it becomes real.
On August 26, the Type 071 integrated landing ships Wuzhishan and Qilianshan, the Type 052D guided-missile destroyer He Fei of the 987 Fleet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy arrived at the Colombo Port in Sri Lanka. Ambassador H.E. Qi Zhenhong and Spouse, the Defense Attaché Senior Colonel Zhou Bo went to the port to greet the fleet. More than 100 people, including staff of Chinese Embassy in Sri Lanka, representatives of overseas Chinese, officers and soldiers of the Sri Lankan Navy lined up to welcome them.
From late July to mid-August, the fleet participated in the “Peace Unity-2024” joint exercise. After completing the mission, it made a technical stop in Sri Lanka on the way back to China. The fleet set off back on August 29. During the stay in Sri Lanka, the officers and soldiers of the fleetcarried out professional exchanges, joint exercises and training, cultural and sports exchanges and other activities with counterparts of Sri Lankan Navy.
Independent presidential candidate and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe says that it is not possible to build the country’s economy without a formal plan.
He states that through the strengthening of the rupee by taking tough decisions, they have temporarily addressed the economic crisis.
Speaking at a rally in Eheliyagoda, President Ranil emphasized that they took over the governance of the country with a fearless commitment.
That day, this group came with me to accept responsibility without fear. We united from various parties. We took over the government and first, we stabilized the rupee. We had to make tough decisions,” said the President.
He stated that although the cost of living in 2023 was high, they had no other option but to act. If we hadn’t taken these measures, we wouldn’t be in this situation but would have been in a situation similar to that of Greece. From then on, we managed to strengthen the rupee and the economy. In 2023, we were able to provide the ‘Aswesuma’ program which is three times as ‘Samurdhi’.”
In 2024, the government has introduced new subsidies, he said. It doesn’t end here. There is more work to be done. We will continue to strengthen the economy and increase the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will further strengthen the rupee.”
The President stated that he is committed to building on the progress the government has achieved and that it is important to note that results cannot be achieved in just a year or two— and that there are no assurances that the country would not collapse once again. So, we can move forward only if there is a proper plan,” said Wickremesinghe.
Samagi Jana Balawegaya’s (SJB) Presidential Candidate and Leader of the Opposition, Sajith Premadasa says that steps will be taken to turn both deep sea and freshwater fishing industries into a ‘smart industry’ under his government.
During a rally held in Puttalam, he highlighted his vision to initiate a public-private joint venture in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), on the country’s sea border.
He further added, We are working to improve this fishing industry by making both marine and freshwater fishing industry into a smart industry, using new methods along with new technology.”
Premadasa emphasized that Sri Lanka’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extending 200 nautical miles from the coast, was secured in the 1980s.
We intend to direct this Exclusive Economic Zone towards sustainable development through collaborative public-private projects around the country and to bring in required resources and foreign investments into the country,” said Premadasa.
Additionally, Premadasa stated that he plans to enhance agriculture in the area not only by improving paddy cultivation but also improving crop production. He also expressed his goal to foster the development of ‘smart farmers’ and ‘smart fishermen’.
The National People’s Power presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake reiterated that the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not unfavourable to the country.
Joining a business community conference held in Colombo, Dissanayake reassured that an NPP government will uphold the current agreement with the IMF.
Now all the international relations of the country including the bilateral and multi-lateral agreements have been placed inside the IMF basket. It means that the entire future program of the country is tied together with the International Monetary Fund”, he said.
Furthermore, Dissanayake said that at this time, if anyone is thinking of unilaterally withdrawing from the IMF program, it is an abdication of accountability to the citizen or to the country.
Commenting further regarding the matter, the NPP’s presidential candidate added: Therefore, we guarantee you that we have no hope of unilaterally withdrawing from the International Monetary Fund.”
But we have a number of parameters set by the International Monetary Fund that we have to fulfill. We should maintain primary account balance of 2.3 next year. By 2032, our debt ratio should be maintained at 98%. We are given a number of parameters. They are not harmful to a country. Achieving them is not a bad thing. It’s not a bad economic goal, no matter who gives it”, he signed off.
Last week, speaking to the Associated Press, Dissanayake had expressed that he plans to uphold the agreement with the IMF while his administration negotiates changes to ease the burden on the public.
We can’t come out from the existing IMF program because we entered into the IMF program only after the country was financially collapsed. We believe there could have been another alternative. But now all the bilateral and multi-lateral agreements have been placed inside the IMF basket,” Dissanayake said.
More attention should be paid to the hardships faced by the people when moving forward with the IMF program,” he had said.
Debt on ISBs continues to be the bugbear in the economy. It is on record that the Yahapalanaya regime borrowed on ISBs 12.4 billion US dollars at high rates of interest. The financial wizards of yahapalnaya claims that these high cost funds were used to settle loans taken by the Manida government. Accoding to Central Bank statistics total Foreign Debt at the end of 2015 was Rs 3,544,031 million out of which Project loans were Rs 2,180,388.
It is unlikely that high cost ISB funds would have been used to settle low-cost long-term project loans.
According to the Central Bank report on PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT IN SRI LANKA – 2017 at para 2.5.8. on the Usage of Foreign Debt it is noted that
the debt raised through external sources in 2017 was mainly used for the purposes of development of economic, social and administrative services in the country. Substantial investment in the form of enhancing the capacity and productivity of the economy also aimed from foreign financing during the year. Out of the total outstanding external debt at end 2017, 51.58 per cent was utilized for the development of economic services. Meanwhile, 8.91 per cent and 1.33 per cent of total external debt had been utilized for the development of social services and import of commodities, respectively, during 2017. Further, a share of 22.07 per cent of total external debt at end 2017 was used for the development of transportation system of the country including roads and bridges (15.47 percent) and ground transport (6.60 per cent)”.
The same report of 2019 at para 2.5.8 states that the debt raised through external sources was mainly used for the development of economic services which accounted for 45.93 per cent of outstanding external debt at end 2019. Two main sectors that were beneficial through such developments were industrial and construction sector (28.72 per cent) and service sector (11.17 per cent).
External debt was also deployed to improve social services and in importing commodities and food, that accounted for 7.74 per cent and 0.82 per cent of the total external debt during the year respectively. Further, a substantial share
of foreign debt (16.07 per cent) was utilized for the development of transportation systems including roads and bridges while development in ground transportation accounted for 5.52 percent of the total external debt.”
It is not clear whether development of economic services” was in the way of projects. But the fact is that external debt was also deployed to improve social services and in importing commodities and food.
Towards the end of the Yahapalana government there was a flurry of ISB borrowing. In 2019 GOSL tapped the international capital market with the issuance of new International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs) worth US dollar 4,400 million during 2019 in March and June. The Government issued its 13th ISB in March 2019 and raised US dollars 2.4 billion which was of two tenures (i) US dollars 1.0 billion with a 5-year maturity at a yield of 6.85 per cent and (ii) US dollars 1.4 billion with a 10-year maturity at a yield of 7.85 per cent. In June 2019, US dollars 2.0 billion in total was raised by issuing US dollars 500 million with a 5-year maturity at a yield of 6.35 per cent and US dollars 1.5 billion with a long 10-year maturity at a yield of 7.55 per cent per annum.(PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT IN SRI LANKA – 20195)
it is clear that the immediate cause for Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy is the exposure to international sovereign bonds (ISBs) issued at high interest rates. It is reported that in 2021, ISBs accounted for 70 percent of the government’s annual interest payments. It is the settlement of the 500 million US$ ISB in January 2022 which triggered the bankcruptcy of the country by 12 April with the temporary suspension of repayment of all external debt.
The Red Sea is a crucial Indian Ocean entrance that is largely anchored by the Suez Canal, in terms of strategic significance between Europe, Asia and Africa, which entered the hot zone of geopolitics. Compared to other nations not as dependent on international trade, as a small open economy, Sri Lanka is exposed to the risk of Red Sea conflict disruptions. In light of this, the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) of Sri Lanka, the premier think tank on national security established and functioning under the Ministry of Defence organised a roundtable on September 02, 2024 entitled, Widening Red Sea Conflict: Implications for the Global Economy and Sri Lanka”. The discussion, held at the Ministry of Defence, explored how increased maritime risks, potential diversions in trade routes and economic instabilities can affect Sri Lanka as an island nation.
This discussion on the timely topic was conducted under the guidance and direction of Defence Secretary General Kamal Gunaratne. Chief of National Intelligence (CNI) Maj. Gen. Ruwan Kulathunga (Retd) graced the event as the Chief Guest.
Overlooking Director General and Acting Director (Research) of the INSS, Colonel Nalin Herath warmly received the Chief Guest and the distinguished panelists to the forum. While making the introductory remarks, he also introduced the distinguished moderator and other speakers to the audience.
The central themes of the discussion included an overview of the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea, the implications of the conflict on the global economy, impacts on Sri Lankan economy and strategies to strengthen economic resilience whilst exploiting the opportunities as a key maritime hub in the Indian Ocean.
The moderator of the event was Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja, the Professorial fellow in Economics and Trade at Gateway House in Mumbai and Visiting Senior Fellow at ODI in London. Dr. (Mrs.) Sujeetha Jegajeevan, Director of the Economic Research Department at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Mr Bingumal Thewarathanthri, the Chief Executive Officer at Standard Chartered Bank in Sri Lanka and Professor Rohan Samarajiva, founding Chair of LIRNE Asia (Learning Initiatives on Reforms for Network Economies Asia), acted as key speakers of the event.
Dr. Jegajeevan highlighted that maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies was important to tackle the economic fallout on Sri Lanka from a possible widening of the Red Sea conflict. Mr. Thewarathanthri indicated the significance of consistent economic policies to support business and signing trade deals with Sri Lanka’s major trading partners. Professor Samarajiva suggested that Sri Lanka’s comparative advantage lies in services (such as ICT services) and that investing in innovation and cyber security were essential. Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja summerized the main points expressed by the speakers and suggested that government needs to maintain a razar sharp focus on ensuring economic security for the country to move from debt default status to economic prosperity.
The audience consisted of Defence Ministry officials, academics, researchers, scholars, policymakers, representatives from the Sri Lanka Armed Forces, Sri Lanka Police and other international subject experts.
According to London based InternationlalHuman Rights Committee (IHRC), Pakistani cleric Mold Habib-ur-Rehman (Deobandi) of Dhudial, Mansehra has openly called for the murder of Ahmadi citizens, at a conference held at Takiya Stop, Mansehra on 20 August 2024.
A video1of the speech shows the extremist cleric exhorting the audience, proclaiming:
From now on wherever it will be known that he is a Qadiani (Ahmadi) be it an Army Officer, he has to be killed, be it a Policeman he has to be killed, be it a Judge or a Lawyer he has to be killed.”
He further affirmed his announcement” to government officials and the society at large.
The International Human Rights Committee (IHRC) calls upon Pakistani authorities to investigate this incident and prosecute violations of Pakistani and international law that have occurred. We consider these remarks to be incitement to violence, which can lead to further abuses of Pakistan’s Ahmadi citizens. Neglect of this responsibility will confer impunity upon others who incite violence, can only imply a posture of complicity.
And once again, the IHRC implores international human rights officials to focus on such threats and understand that an entire religious minority is facing lethal, and intensifying violence in Pakistan.
This incitement to violence and murder is inconsistent with international norms and values concerning freedom of religion and belief, as enshrined in Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), on the freedom of religion, and Article 18 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which was ratified by Pakistan in 2008. Three other UN human rights treaties, as well as numerous General Assembly Resolutions and Human Rights Committee comments, prohibit religious discrimination. These speeches make it to viral social media posts and videos also violate Pakistan’s own National Action Plan as well as the recently enacted cybercrime laws because it fuels hatred, discriminatioand persecution against members of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community in Pakistan.
Nonetheless, the Pakistani government authorities, who continue to bring frivolous cases against Ahmadi Muslims under anti-Ahmadiyya, blasphemy, and cybercrime laws, turn a blind eye towards systematic and country-wide efforts by Islamic extremists to fan hatred and ignite violence against Ahmadi Muslims. Instead of prosecuting the makers of these social media posts and videos under cybercrime laws and the National Action Plan, the governmental authorities continue to protect and support extremists and target innocent Ahmadis.
In July 2024, a group of top UN Human Rights experts including UN Special Rapporteurs urged an immediate end to discrimination and violence against Ahmadis in Pakistan, citing documented evidence of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests and detentions, attacks on places of worship and curtailment of free expression, peaceful assembly and association.” Apparently, their pleas fell on deaf ears.
We call upon the Pakistani authorities to honor their international human rights commitments to protect religious freedom and promote religious tolerance towards the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community.
We respectfully request all members of the international community to urge the government of Pakistan to take urgent steps to bring its laws and practices in conformity with international standards as ordained by UDHR and ICCPR.
Colombo, September 3: The ouster of the Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina by a student-led movement on August 5, has muddied South Asia’s waters. India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and China, are all impacted, for better or worse. Hasina’s exit in a cloud is a grave setback for India, but it opens new opportunities for the US, China, and also Pakistan.
The ouster has caused acute anxiety in India because Hasina was New Delhi’s protégé. India’s anxiety is reflected in the frenzied comments in Indian television debates, news reporting and expert opinions aired in seminar halls.
While government of India has not commented on the developments in Bangladesh, Indian think tanks and the media have attributed Hasina’s overthrow to a conspiracy hatched by Pakistan, the US and China.
India’s Stakes
The new government in Dhaka is not anti-India at least on the face of it. But it is certainly not going to be India’s camp follower as Hasina’s government was. One of the popular charges against Hasina in the movement against her was that she was India’s puppet.
Thanks to Hasina’s tight grip on power from 2009 to 2024, India was able to pump in huge Lines of Credit totaling US$ 7.9 billion in 2023. These were spent on projects in connectivity and energy.
If the political vacuum in Bangladesh is filled by the anti-Indian Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Indo-Bangla relations could sour badly and the future of Indian projects could be in jeopardy. When the BNP was in the power in the 1990s and 2000s, India-Bangladesh relations had touched the nadir. Bangladesh was a cockpit of Islamic and tribal militants aided and abetted by Pakistan.
There is a strong demand in Bangladesh that Sheikh Hasina be extradited from India to face the 100-odd cases filed against her, including murder. But India cannot oblige Bangladesh in this matter given its past close relations with Hasina and her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
US Stakes
The change of guard in Dhaka will have a significant impact on Indo-US relations also. The relationship is outwardly fine, with America characterizing India as a strategic partner” against China and parading it in the world as a feather in its cap. India is part of the Indo-Pacific partnership the QUAD.
But contradicting the US stand, New Delhi keeps flaunting its strategic autonomy” in international relations to America’s annoyance. America’s relations with South Asian countries often clashes with Indian interests. India had been blindly backing Sheikh Hasina while the US was very critical of her authoritarian rule and imposing sanctions.
The US was so annoyed with India for its support for Russia over Ukraine that envoy Eric Garcetti publicly stated: I know and respect that India likes its strategic autonomy. But in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy. We will, in crisis moments, need to know each other. I don’t care what title we put to it, but we will need to know that we are trusted friends, brothers and sisters, colleagues. The India-US relationship is not deep enough.”
US Stake
While India is wondering how to recover lost ground in Bangladesh, the US should be happy with the developments in Dhaka. It also has a stake in the growing rift between India and Bangladesh.
For the US, Bangladesh is a strategically important due to its geographic location connecting South and Southeast Asia. The location makes it a focal point in the Indo-Pacific strategy of the QUAD, comprising US, India, Japan and Australia.
In April 2023, Sheikh Hasina’s government published a peace and development-centric Indo-Pacific Outlook” which highlighted Bangladesh’s non-alignment on the issue of the Indo-Pacific. The Hasina government saw the American Indo-Pacific scheme as being anti-China and therefore not in conformity with its independent nonaligned foreign policy.
Hasina told the US that if the Indo-Pacific architecture was for trade and investment she would be ready to support it. But US was looking at the Indo-Pacific only as a theater to confront China militarily.
The US was wanting Bangladesh to sign two defense agreements, namely the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and the Acquisition and Cross Services Agreement (ACSA). But Bangladesh made it known that it would not sign these agreements.
Partly in retaliation, the US kept condemning the human rights violations of the Hasina regime, especially the extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. The US sanctioned some Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) officers and even a retired army chief, Gen. Aziz Ahmed.
A key factor in the post-Hasina US-Bangladesh relations is Dr.Muhammad Yunus, Nobel Peace prize winner and Chief Advisor to the Bangladesh President. Nuhammad Yunus is America’s point man in Dhaka. The US had fully backed his Grameen (Rural) Bank” project much to the annoyance of Hasina who saw the bank as a den of corruption.
It is even said that the student agitators were persuaded to accept Dr.Yunus as the Chief Advisor by the US and the pro-US Bangladesh army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman.
After she was overthrown, Hasina issued a statement blaming America for her ouster and said that Washington would not have engineered her overthrow if she had only handed over St.Martin’s island in the Bay of Bengal to the US. The US refuted this charge.
China’s Stakes
There is an apprehension in India that the Interim Government might favor the Chinese as the pro-China BNP is now close to the power center, if not formally part of it.
But it should be noted that Chinese presence was strong even in Hasina’s time. Although not pro-China as such, Hasina’s government had secured huge investments from Beijing in the infrastructure sector. Between 2016 and 2022, Chinese state-owned and private companies had invested nearly US$ 26 billion in Bangladesh.
In 2022, Beijing emerged as Bangladesh’s single largest FDI provider as its investments topped almost US$1 billion—a 30% increase from US$700 million in 2021. In both these years, Chinese investments also accounted for more than 65% of FDI registered by the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA). Besides these projects, in 2023 alone, China invested nearly US$ 800 million in Bangladesh
But Hasina was not seen as Beijing’s puppet as the Chinese had not thrown their weight about publicly.
China’s relations with new regime is expected to be smooth as it had been in the past when BNP was in power. The Bangladesh army has had a preference for Chinese weapons and this is likely to continue.
And with the Chinese will come their ally, Pakistan. That will be a red rag for India as the Pakistanis could train and station Islamic militants in Bangladesh as they allegedly did when BNP was in power earlier.
India’s Hopes
Indeed, the prospects for India in Bangladesh look very dim. But the situation could change in its favor if the past events are any indication.
Developments in Bangladesh are difficult to predict given the volatility of the people. Their leaders also act more like quick-change artistes than ideologues committed to a given line. Bangladesh can come up with surprises upsetting conventional wisdom.
The nation was founded in 1971 with the active political and military involvement of India. But within four years, India’s protégé, Prime Minister-turned President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was assassinated by elements in the military who were riding on an anti-Indian wave based on a fear of Indian domination.
The anti-India chant was kept up by successive governments from 1975 to 1996. Military dictators like Gen. Ziaur Rahman and Gen.Hussain Muhammad Ershad; military backed non-political caretaker governments; and governments led by the BNP, were hostile to India.
Conventional wisdom would have been that Bangladesh had dissolved its marriage with India with no prospect of a rapprochement. But this was proved wrong. Mujibur Rahman’s daughter, Sheikh Hasina, made a daring entry into Bangladesh politics, revived her father’s party, the Awami League, won the 1996 elections and restored friendly ties with India.
She came back to power in 2009 and ruled the roost till 2024 with the Indians in tow.
The government has decided an immediate write-off of all crop loans taken by farmers, in response to requests received from several farmer associations, the President’s Media Division (PMD) said.
Furthermore, it mentioned that the decision was reached with a view to providing financial relief and support to farmers.
US and Australian air forces practiced ‘hot pit’ bomber exercises southwest of Sri Lanka in this ocean called Indian recently – unreported by media in Sri Lanka. It was all part of ‘an overall US Bomber Task Force (BTF) Mission deployment to exhibit ‘joint force lethality… in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating the US Air Force’s ability to operate anywhere in the world at any time’ (see ee Random Notes).
Add these old colonial practices to the evidence dribbling out that the IMF’s bitter prescriptions are aimed at creating further chaos in the country.
MP Wimal Weerawansa recently pointed out in Parliament, that it is useless to keep electing leaders, without dealing with the promoters and funders of ‘color revolutionaries’, who keep thwarting the people’s mandate, and keep destabilizing elected leaders, if they do not toe the white line: Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia (see ee Focus, CIA Front Preparing Color Revolution Using Elections in Indonesia). We will not point to Korea, Gaza, the Sudan or the Congo.
Dive no deeper then, than into that sunken unsinkable yacht in the Mediterranean. That once-luxurious yacht is giving up more secrets from its depths, quite revealing of the vested mathematics behind calculating Sri Lanka’s so-called debt. Add Sri Lanka-linked bankers, media, accounting firms, law firms and consultants, to the company owned by the drowned ‘tech wizard’, which ‘boasts a veritable closet of former operatives on the books: MI5, MI6, CIA, NSA, & FBI. One multimillion-pound investor, with a family long linked to the colonization of Sri Lanka and to the Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation Co (P&O), which still controls our oceanic shipping, is Alexander Arbuthnot, whose father is a former English war (defence) minister, and mother, the Westminster chief magistrate, ‘Lady’ Emma Arbuthnot, who ‘presided over part of the lengthily cruel & prolonged extradition proceedings of Julian Assange.’ (see ee Focus)
The links of spy agencies in the USA & England to the ‘financiers’ & ‘advisors’ who drowned and survived in that luxury yacht, expose their now-soggy fingers deep in ‘insider’ stock market manipulations. The practices of debt advisor Clifford Chance & Deloitte, the accounting firm responsible for selling off Sri Lanka’s national assets, offer insights into the – no doubt legal – practices of that world.
Meanwhile, there is still no word about, or name given, to the Sri Lankan crew member still being detained in Baltimore USA, following the crash of the Maersk-chartered ship into a bridge on March 26. Still no name or personality given to the Sri Lankan passengers or crew onboard ‘the English-flagged luxury yacht The Bayesian [which] capsized in a storm early Monday, August 19 off northern Sicily with 22 people aboard… The 12 passengers & 10 crew members were believed to have hailed from Canada, France, Ireland, Myanmar, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, England & the USA’ (see ee Focus).
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• Politicsappears clearer in Sinhala: ‘Politics’ is desha + palana – the ruling of a country, and politicians, those who would rule the country. According to the capitalist mass media, politicians, those who rule Sri Lanka, are all corrupt. So if the politicians of the country don’t rule us, who should? The capitalist media? Artists? The unelected judiciary (who jump on the boards of private corporations at the first chance)? The armed forces, then? The multinational corporations (MNCs, larger than countries), and their subsidiaries, branch plants, whatever it is they call them now? Wish to be ruled by a former microfinancier & Nobel Prize-winning usurer? How about offshore rule? Indian National Security Advisor Ajith Doval dropped in and met with Ministers and Generals….(see ee Focus, Poliitical Officers)
The media use of surveys and polls in a supposedly democratic electoral process, is rather pernicious. The pollsters named in most news items admit to being ‘funded by the Neelan Tiruchelvam Trust, England’s National Institute for Health & Care Research (NIHR), The Asia Foundation in Sri Lanka, and others.’ The USA’s Asia Foundation is a notorious CIA front (see ee Focus, Political Economy).
Looking through the fog of fine words about diversity, and inclusion & equality, transparency, sustainability, etc, the USA, like their colonial predecessor England, clearly has no solution to ‘the continuing development of Sri Lanka’s underdevelopment’. The US is both working to unite the UNP & SJB, while putting pressure on both these merchant and usurers’ parties. They wish to weaken and strengthen certain tendencies, to especially contain ‘national feeling’, in all the parties. Likewise, they are also funding the JVP’s NPP, and promoting them in the media. This is meant to help stoke the JVP’s fantasies, as well as help to ‘whip’ certain sections of the UNP & SJB into uniting against that eternal specter of ‘Marxists’.
Imperialism still controls the media in Sri Lanka, in Sinhala, in Tamil, in English. As is evident in Bolivia, Venezuela, and the USA itself, it is the corporate media that influences or can cast doubt on elections, regardless of the voting.
All sides could be provoked to collude in unleashing or subjecting people to violence prior to any election, which would eventually help the current unelected President Ranil Wickremesinghe to stay in office under certain provisions of the Constitution. They are fattening chickens to feed monkeys, or fattening frogs for snakes. This is meant to exacerbate instability. An NPP government may not last for even 2 years, given the type of superficial criticisms – corruption, tax avoidance, etc – legal or not, which do not get to the root of the crisis. These usually unsubstantiated accusations could also be used by and against any opponent.
Neither will a UNP-SJB government last. The US has no plans to enrich or resell the country, since their main plan is to prevent any increasing relations with China. They would prefer to promote a Ukraine style-chaos rather than help resolve any of the longstanding economic underdevelopment after centuries of colonialism.
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• Last week, ee reported on how ‘the colonial project created an international division of labour to ensure that the colonized would never achieve modern industrialization & development… The fetters placed on Sri Lanka’s fiscal & monetary sovereignty appear almost tailor made to perpetuate its underdevelopment & prevent modern industrialization’(Shiran Illanperuma).
In this ee Focus, Indian economistPrabhat Patnaik shows how Bangladesh entry into an IMF agreement has furthered economic disaster, meant to accelerate long-term chaos. More importantly, the IMF seeks to block the state’s ‘capacity to intervene’ so that it cannot ‘promote domestic industrialization’. They have no wish for countries to actually pay back supposed debts. To promote production, requires ‘some degree of protection of the home market. This protection is however disallowed by the IMF.’
Patnaik recalls how the World Bank & IMF after having hailed Bangladesh: as an economic ‘miracle’ just a few months ago, calling it ‘a success story of export-led growth’, are now actively pushing it into chaos. Wholly dependent on ‘garment exports’, and remittances from overseas workers, Bangladesh was hit by the ‘restrictions’ on such world trade by the pandemic. Bangladesh also depended on imported fuel, which saw spikes blamed on the NATO war on Russia. Then Bangladesh approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF)…. This sounds rather eerily familiar to our ears.
Patnaik concludes: ‘the transcendence of neoliberalism requires the mobilisation of people around an alternative economic strategy that gives a greater role to the state, focuses on the home market, and on national control over mineral & other natural resources.’ This is what ee has always advocated for Sri Lanka. However, ee still wonders what the term neoliberalism includes, and leaves out…
‘The Indians will not reap the fruits of the new elements
of society scattered among them by the British bourgeoisie,
till in Great Britain itself the new ruling classes shall have
been supplanted by the industrial proletariat, or till the
Hindoos themselves shall have grown strong enough
to throw off the English yoke altogether.’
Karl Marx, Manuscripts on the Polish Question (1863-64)
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‘Neoliberalism is often associated with a set of economic
liberalization policies, including privatization, deregulation,
& reductions in government spending =100% IMF Proposals’
‘Often associated’ may be the key words here. This above definition came up during a social discussion of ‘neoliberalism’. But let’s see what neoliberalism & the IMF is not ‘associated’ with, especially in Sri Lanka? 1) Imperialism, 2) Anti-Marxism-Leninism (particularly anti-Stalinism). All of which amounts to anti-industrialization – to prevent the country from capturing the ‘commanding heights of the economy’ (Lenin).
Imperialism was taken out of fashion almost suddenly, in the white world (let say, after 1976). No self-promoting academic would want to use such words, especially at a time when the white world was absorbing Asian & African ‘scholars’ (US Vice-Presidential Candidate JD Vance’s wife & other ‘Green Card’ Indians etc, are the manufactures of an immigration category called B1?).
But in one shot the mighty eraser fogged out our major contradiction (500 years of contradiction at least – so now their calculations say: we owe them!) just as they were (expanding) launching their latest round of genocidal world wars (talk about real Keynesian – military – ‘welfare, and, Schumpeterian – military – ‘creative destruction’) to keep capitalism going.
Then, while taming their working classes (actually saying ‘goodbye’ to them) and smashing unions, they welcomed an amorphous supposedly leaderless autonomous ‘multitude’ – ara gollo, indeed!). All this while also assassinating and massacring modern leadership, they also made nationalism a bad word. Especially industrial nationalism, the yakada nationalism of steel.
After all, USSR leader Joseph Stalin, despite misrepresentations, gave leadership to gathering the late-19thC and early 20thC working genius around world into the USSR – expertise not only obtained from England & USA – to build an industrial state that can still defend itself – if it wishes to.
So, they made the type of industrialized nationalism, of the USSR, PRC, DPRK, Eastern Europe, etc, a bad word, from which we are not supposed to study and learn, especially about the forms of organization (cadre party, central committee, politbureau) and machinery required.
The word neoliberal is also so academic (using it, may make an academic, ‘edgy’ & ‘radical’ but retain their tenured career) and confusing (We doubt the word liberal was/is even used in daily (Sinhala) conversation. And also because few people even know what the 2-faced role of just ‘liberalism’ alone has been (the ‘freedom’ to own slaves). Neoliberal may mean even less but larger concentrated groups of slave owners. The original Rockefeller-funded economists who coined the word, also wished to call their attack, New Capitalism, and were clear this was about holding the rest of the world back.
So now ‘analysts’ go into great details on ‘neoliberal’ policies – but these policies (free trade, globalization) have been there all along. Colonialism has been a ‘private ‘enterprise of the English state to keep its ruling class happy!? Again, people’s understandings of what ‘socialism’, ‘imperialism’ and ‘communism’ means, have also been happily confused, especially by so-called well-funded ‘Westernized’ Marxists (see ee Focus, Distorting Political Economy in Sri Lanka)
Jaffna will be the second destination in Sri Lanka for IndiGo, after Colombo
Air links between Chennai and Jaffna, Sri Lanka, were strengthened on Sunday, September 1, with private airline IndiGo beginning a once daily turboprop ATR72 service (6E1177/6E1178). The former Air India subsidiary and current Government of India feeder airline, Alliance Air, also flies a daily service on the same route (9I101/9I102), with an ATR72, which it inaugurated on October 17, 2019. Jaffna will be the second destination in Sri Lanka for IndiGo, after Colombo.
An aviation source associated with the route launch said the passenger demographic for this service would be the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora visiting India from the United Arab Emirates and using Chennai as a transit point. The airline is also looking to tap tourist interest in the ‘Ramayana circuit’, covering Jaffna, Trincomalee, Kandy, and Colombo. Trader traffic and medical tourism have potential too, given the liberal bilateral air services agreement between India and Sri Lanka, the source added.
Passengers could contact the airline’s general sales agent in Sri Lanka, Acorn Aviation for travel-related assistance, the source said. With Chennai emerging as a major hub for IndiGo for the South East Asian region, the airline is preparing to begin more and new flights to Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Colombo, Penang, and Siem Reap, Cambodia.
Increased activity of Chinese research vessels and warships – specially when India is conducting military or space-related tests – stokes security and diplomatic worries
The Indian Ocean Region continues to witness the presence of Chinese research vessels with new units recently deployed, this graphic illustrates the paths taken during their current surveys.X/@detresfa_
The Chinese Navy is intensifying its presence in the waters surrounding India. Chinese research vessels have been active in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean and a mini-fleet of three warships have docked in Colombo on an official visit.
Throughout August, three Chinese survey ships have been prowling in the seas around the subcontinent with a notable pattern of increased activity when India is conducting military or space-related tests.
The heightened Chinese presence in Indian waters come as China and the Philippines exchanged charges at the weekend of deliberately ramming each other’s coast guard vessels near the Sabina Shoal. The disputed atoll is the newest flashpoint in a row between Beijing and Manila over territory in the South China Sea.
The Chinese survey ship Xiang Yong Hong 03 spent several weeks in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean through July and early August. At one point, it was located 380 nautical miles from Chennai and 120 nautical miles from the area where India had announced it would be holding a sub-surface firing between July 27 and August 10.
Two other Chinese survey ships were also sailing in the Indian Ocean region during the same period. One was the Yuan Wang 7, a ship used for satellite and missile tracking. The other was the Zhong Shan Da Yue, commissioned in 2020 and described as China’s largest-ever oceanographic research and training vessel. The Zhong Shan Da Yue features a landing platform for drones and helicopters and has been referred to as a large mobile laboratory at sea”.
Earlier in June, the Yuan Wang 07 also entered the Indian Ocean region just three days before India put out a warning about a 415 km No-fly zone from Balasore in Odisha where India has an integrated missile test range.,
In February and March, the Xiang Yang Hong 3 was the centre of a three-way diplomatic spat between India, the Maldives and China. The ship made a port call at Male ‘for rotation of personnel and replenishment’. India had opposed the stopover and was hoping the Maldives government would deny the request.
Sri Lanka imposed a ban at the start of the year on Chinese research ships docking at its ports after strong lobbying by New Delhi and Washington which said the vessels might be spying. But under intense pressure from the Chinese, Sri Lanka is widely expected to lift the ban from next year. Cash-strapped Sri Lanka considers both India and China important partners in its task to restructure its external debt.
Globally, China’s naval activity is stirring concerns. Beijing has used the Chinese Navy as a key force to push aggressive claims against China’s neighbours. On Saturday, a Chinese coast guard ship collided with a Philippine coast ship at the Sabina Shoal.
China accused the Philippine ship of causing the collision. But a video of the incident clearly shows the Chinese ship was the aggressor. This was the latest of a series of midsea clashes between the two countries.
The US State Department condemned China for what it said was deliberately” colliding with a Philippine coast guard vessel, calling the incident the latest in a series of dangerous and escalatory actions” by Beijing.
Additionally on Saturday, a Chinese survey ship entered Japanese coastal waters, prompting a protest from Japan. It was the second incursion of its kind in less than a week.
In response to Chinese activities, the Indian Navy is closely monitoring all Chinese ships entering the Indian Ocean region. It tracks them and, in some cases, follows them at a discreet distance. When three Chinese warships – the He-Fei, Wuzhishan and Qillanshan – docked in Colombo last week, an Indian Navy vessel, the INS Mumbai, was berthed not far away in the port.
India has also stepped up its presence in the South China Sea. In May, the Indian Navy’s eastern fleet made a visit to the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, reflecting India’s growing engagement in regional maritime activities.
It is with deep sadness that the Royal Asiatic Society of Sri Lanka (RASSL) announces the death of its current President Dr. Malini Dias, who passed away on August 31. She was 81 years old.
Her funeral will be held on Monday, September 02, at the General Cemetery, Kanatte at 4.00 p.m.
She has served the RASSL with distinction in various capacities before being elected as the President in March 2021. She was an Archaeologist, specializing in Epigraphy. She served at the Department of Archaeology for a period of 35 years (1968 – 2004) ending as the Director of Epigraphy and Numismatics. She had her primary school education at Weragoda Vijayaba Vidyalaya, Southlands College (Galle), and Visakha Vidyalaya, Colombo. She obtained BA (oriental languages), University of Ceylon, (1967), MA (1985), Kelaniya University, Discipline- Sinhala language, and Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) focused in Sinhalese Epigraphy from the School of Oriental and African Studies, U. of London.
Author of Epigraphical Notes. Author of Epigraphia Zeylanica Vol. VIII – Title – The growth of Buddhist monastic institutions in Sri Lanka from Brahmi inscriptions, Department of Archaeology, Sri Lanka, 2001
She has also held offices in various international institutions including the World Fellowship of Buddhists (WFB) where she has served as the Vice – President, and as Chairperson of two Standing Committees on Dharmaduta Activities, and the Publications, Publicity, Education, Culture & Art.
Royal Asiatic Society of Sri Lanka (RASSL)
……………………………………
Brief Resume
Royal Asiatic Society
President of the Royal Asiatic Society of Sri Lanka (since March 2021 to August 2024, until her death)
Served as the Vice President (2011-2017 and 2019-2021) and Joint Secretary (2009-2011)
Published a number of articles to the Society journal
Delivered several lectures
Date of Birth
Born 15 April 1943, Metiwala village, Ambalangoda District.
Education
Weragoda Vijayaba Vidyalaya, Southlands College Galle and Visakha Vidyalaya Colombo.
BA (1967), University of Ceylon
MA (1985), Kelaniya University, Discipline- Sinhala language
PhD (1989), School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. (title of the thesis: the growth of Buddhist monastic institutions in Sri Lanka from Brahmi inscriptions)
Service at the Department of Archaeology
– joined 01.02.1968 as a Technical Assistant (epigraphy)
– Became the Director Epigraphy and Numismatics in 1999.
– Retired in 2003
– Advisor of the Department (2003-04) – a cabinet appointment
Profession
Professional Archaeologist
Subject (specific): Epigraphy
Publications:
Epigraphia Zeylanica Vol VIII (PhD Thesis)
Epigraphical Notes
Vallipuram Ranpatha (in Sinhala)
Eithihasika Badulla (in Sinhala)
Mahiyangana Rajamaha Viharaya (in Sinhala)
Sri Sankhapala Rajamaha Viharaya (in Sinhala)
A number of edited volumes, translations
A number of research articles and general articles
Served as
– a visiting lecturer, University of Kelaniya
– board member, Post-Graduate Institute of Archaeology
– a post-graduate supervisor for several universities
Attended several national and international conferences etc.
Organizational work
Fellow of the Sri Lanka Council of Archaeologists
Held several positions in the World Fellowship of Buddhists (Sri Lanka Chapter)
Vice – President of the WFB
Chairperson of the WFB Standing Committee on Dharmaduta Activities
Chairperson of the WFB Standing Committee the Publications, Publicity, Education, Culture & Art
Awards received:
Swarna Award (Ministry of National Heritage) 2014
Swarna Mudrika (Sri Lanka Council of Archaeologists) 2019
With ‘Ravana’s Lanka,’ Sunela Jayewardene transforms the mythical past of Sri Lanka into a tangible, vivid exploration of history and legend.
Ravana’s Lanka: The landscape of a lost kingdom Photo: Penguin Vintage
Book – Ravana’s Lanka: The landscape of a lost kingdom
Author – Sunela Jayewardene
Publisher – Penguin Vintage
INR 499
Sunela Jayewardene, celebrated as Sri Lanka’s foremost environmental architect, embarked on a journey through the heart of her homeland. She immersed herself in the narratives from the oral traditions, delving into Sri Lanka’s folklore and navigating the intricate web of race and religion that was woven over time. With these threads, she meticulously wove together a narrative of a long-forgotten landscape, the second in her Lanka series.
The tale of the kingdom once ruled by Ravana lies draped over the island consigned to mythology through the pages of the Ramayana yet the contours of the ancient land are still to be found lingering in the terrain which Jayawardene unearthed with the help of archaeologist friends. It is the mix of the myth and the real that makes Ravana’s Lanka so intriguing to those accustomed to a ten-headed demon killed by a magic bow.
Jaywardene’s book begins on a very down to earth note with the geological shifts that resulted in the creation of Lanka and the different migrant peoples that came with the shifts, hunter gatherers and the like. There are tales of the mask makers of Sinhala who were descended from the Nagas, another early dynasty and who still exist to this day, creating masks as symbols of protest. Jayawardene also traces an ecologically sensitive artistic super civilisation that built spas which she is certain Conde Nast would have raved over these days.
King Ravana of Lanka, demonised in the annals of history, had his reign and that of his powerful ancestors, the Mayuranga, obscured and veiled in myth. Legend has it that their kingdom once stretched far beyond Lanka’s shores, conquering lands across the seas—a vast empire the likes of which the island would never see again. Jayewardene takes the narrative beyond the Ramayana to the Yaksas and Rakusas who ruled Lanka until they were conquered by the Indian Buddhist Prince Vijaya with the help of a treacherous Yaksa princess. Vijaya brought Mahayana Buddhism to Lanka and this was apparently the first time Buddhism came to the island, a fact that Jayawardene debunks through archaeological evidence.
Jayewardene puts her architectural skills to archaeological use as she tracks Ravana’s history down various mountain trails with the threats of maneating leopards and marauding elephants to be tackled. While Ram gets not much mention she points out an inscription in a cave by Ravana’s daughter as proof that the king of the Mayurangas existed. She also tells the story of his banishing his baby daughter to King Janak’s fields so that she would not destroy Lanka which like all such predictions came true since he later heard that she was unhappy in her forest hut and kidnapped her. However again, she is unsure which story to follow in the end since the fact that Ravana never touched Sita was apparent and the fact that he would kidnap a woman for lust and then let her be seems unlikely.
Ravana has never shone in the Ramayana context – a dark demon according to the way the Aryans saw the original inhabitants of Lanka – though the same was true for the Indian subcontinent too. However, he created the first musical instrument to sing the first raga of praise to Lord Shiva whose devotee he was. She also mentions the aircraft invention, the Pushpak Rath merging magic and history. Ravana also apparently visited the Buddha after he materialised on earth. Though Theraveda Buddhism was in Lanka before Mahayana Buddhism and Ravana’s brother Kuber, whom some called the god of wealth, was shown as the Laughing Buddha, a form that still exists across South East Asia – this fluidity of eras makes the Ravana Buddha encounter feasible.
The history that she narrates veers between myth and reality crossing the lines between the two on occasion. This is her second book on the past of Lanka and the vast gap that exists between documented history and oral tradition. One might say that Ram’s character is shadowy – she locates him between the coming of the Buddha and Prince Vijaya. Armed with a nuclear astra, his bow, guided by Ravana’s treacherous younger brother, he shoots and kills Ravana in the heart of his palace in the Dumbara Kanduvetiya or Mist Laden Mountains, from an incredible distance away. Jayawardene’s focus remains Ravana, the once and future king whose role was transformed by the conquerors who overran the kingdom.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna/National People’s Power candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake rides high on opinion polls, social media posts, Twitter and Facebook likes and the crowd size.
ජාතික ජනබලවේගයේ ප්රතිපත්ති ප්රකාශයේ 230 වෙනි පිටුවේ සත්ය සෙවීමේ කොමිසම තවත් බලගන්වා ක්රියාත්මක කරන බව සඳහන් කර ඇති බවද ඔවුන් එසේ පවසන්නේ කෙසේදැයි සිතාගත නොහැකි බවද දේශහිතෛෂී ජාතික ව්යාපාරයේ මහ ලේකම් වෛද්ය වසන්ත බණ්ඩාර මහතා පවසයි.