CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

There is No Need for Federalism: The LTTE is a Movement with a Declining Popular Base.

R. Ranasinghe

In my view the LTTE are going to find it harder to wage war the longer they wait to launch their fabled Ealam War IV. The foreign funds they possess are going to become harder to convert into weapons the longer the West goes on imposing a ban on its operations in their countries. Right now they probably have enough to sustain a limited war for sometime. I would hazard a guess this would be for another year or two.

The time span is long enough for them to find some other way of diverting their funds held abroad to their arms procurement agents. They seem to be confident their strategy of waiting till the Government declares an all out war will come off if they continue to provoke the Army for long enough. This is vital for the LTTE's strategists, as they believe all out war is going to eventually achieve their goal. That needs either the SLA or the Singhalese community to effect another pogrom (hartal) against the Tamil population in the East, which is quite possible in the current climate.

It is clear from what experts (Mr Gunaratna) say the LTTE are not having their own way in the East. Gradually, the forces of Karuna are organising an effective resistance to them. Behind their bravado the signs are they are very scared their grip of terror is loosening among the Eastern Tamils.

The difficulty is the SLA in a combat situation fails to distinguish between civilians and combatants. Viewing all Tamils as potential hostiles leaves them open to the charge of being anti-Tamil. The army therefore is better used attacking LTTE military bases than engaging in close combat situations around predominately Tamil hamlets. This should be left to forces who can speak Tamil.

One way of improving the performance of the army is to recruit or train soldiers to speak fluent Tamil - particularly the lower ranking officers. It is a very effective method of winning the sympathy of the local people and gathering intelligence on the enemy. Once soldiers are accepted as friends and protectors who are there to help protect them, the ordinary Tamil people are more likely to identify with them. Knowing the language is essential if the Army is going to win the hearts and minds of the Tamil community. One of the defining failures of the Army to date has been the way it has been easy for the LTTE to portray the SLA as a hostile army of occupation. It is absolutely imperative this perception changes, as it is one of the most important contributory factors to the needless protraction of the conflict.

The problem with this is the Army then becomes vulnerable to infiltration by the LTTE. But this problem already exists and is one reason why there have been so many successful suicide bombings of senior army officers. Only better internal security is going to resolve this deficiency.

I think the first step now it is common knowledge what the LTTE's strategy is, is to put an effective security cordon around all military establishments and secure the capital making it very hard for the LTTE to carry out random attacks in Colombo. Perhaps there should be more security cameras around the city (and its schools). Tapping telephone conversations so they can be traced back to the person(s) that make threatening calls should be added to the emergency powers used by the state.

Defeating the LTTE is going to take several years of slow and painful re-organisation of the intelligence services and the security network operating across the country. The priority is clear. The defence establishment has to make their own establishments and the capital safe. Then, they need to extend their trip over the rest of the country until the endless bloodshed ravaging the country stops. The brutality of the LTTE is a weapon that can be used against them. It is the best opportunity the Government has to break their grip on the Tamil community. Making friends and winning allies will in the long run help us resist the pressure from our neighbour and the international community to create a state within a state - a federal Tamil homeland. The Sri Lankan union is fragmented enough without the constitution formalising this malady. The present Tamil homeland (the LTTE controlled areas) has not brought peace it has created a giant Abaddon that is spreading its nihilistic tentacles across to the rest of the country. Sri Lanka does not need federalism it needs a better democracy.

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