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General Elections by the end of this year. A joint conspiracy against the President and the country?.Sudath Gunasekara , Former Secretary to Mrs Sirimavo Bandaranayaika and President Mahanuwara Senior Citizens Movement writing from USA. 5.10.2006.Apropos the news item (Sunday observer 05.10.2006) on another general election by end of this year, I have no doubt that all patriotic Sri Lankans who supported the President at the Last Presidential election will be thoroughly perturbed and disturbed to hear this most unwelcome political miscalculation, if that is true. In my opinion this is a miscalculated political blunder of the first order, perhaps aired out at a wrong time. What source this 'faithful' advice has come from? Who are the actual architects of this brilliant idea? Where has it been hatched? Aren't they the frustrated anti-national elements both within the government and outside maneuvering desperately to topple the government and remove President Rajapaksa from power? Could not this be another major conspiracy, with deeper roots that has both national and international ramifications, to reverse the emerging national resurgence gaining ground under the present government? It is reported that his decision was based on the advice of some 'senior members' of the ruling party (probably in addition to many other advisors) given in order to get the 2/3 majority in the House to facilitate the passing of the proposed constitutional amendments to find solutions to the current problems facing the country, including the so-called ethnic conflict.. It is assumed that these 'advisors' feel the SLFP can get a comfortable majority in the House if they go for elections on the present wave of apparent current victories against the LTTE. Of cause I do not think any patriotic citizen will underestimate the government's recent achievements against the LTTE or disagree with the most pragmatic and appropriate actions taken by the government on this issue. But will that alone bring in the desired majority for the SLFP in the House is another issue all together. Going by past experience it is also dangerous to be complacent with the present achievements in the battlefield, as the leader of the JHU has correctly pointed out after his recent visits to the East. The government must be fully prepared to face any unexpected retaliation by the LTTE and completely eliminate them from our soils for good in case they resort to a major attack. Until such time that the last terrorist is eliminated, it is extremely dangerous to be complacent. The purpose of this note is to draw the immediate attention of the President and those who matter in the state machinery to the dangers and wider ramifications such a decision might bring about on the government and the country at large at a critical time like this. It is said that these 'insiders' by doing so expect to reduce dependency on the JVP and strengthen the position of their own party within the House. (This firmly establishes the anti JVP element present in this game) This also indirectly implies that majority of the seats presently held by the JVP will come to the SLFP if they have an election now. They may also be expecting the present JHU seats to come to them. Even if they get all these seats, (which is very unlikely under any
circumstance) the most they will end up at 114. Given the actual situation
on ground, if they hold the elections under the existing election laws,
the JVP also should get at least 30. So that the SLFP will then settles
down around 80 the most. As such the SLFP will still has to depend on
the JVP for its working majority in the House. On the other hand assuming that the government gets the proposed amendments through and hold elections under the new system as proposed by Dinesh Gunawardhana Committee, and also given all the patriotic forces who stood with them at the last election vote with them, even then the SLFP as a single party is unlikely to get more than 25 or 30 additional seats the most. This will give them a total around 100 in the House. Then it becomes obvious that they will have to face the same predicament and the status quo will remain unchanged. Thereby leaving them still short of a working majority. To expect a major increase in the number of seats resulting from the expected UNP crossovers may only be a nightmare for two reasons. Firstly those who cross over are only individuals. At the last election they were elected as UNP members. Secondly the UNP more than any other party is a party centered party. They often vote for the party more than individuals. As such their personal vote bank is negligible. Therefore, we cannot expect a significant shift within this short time of one year. Another important factor in Sri Lankan politics that can influence the outcome of elections is the unpredictability of the behaviour of minority communal parties like CWC and the Muslim Congress. Going by past experience it is very likely that men like Thondaman and Hakeem will join the UNP and definitely work jointly to defeat the government. Going by the results of the last presidential election their vote banks in Central, Uva and Eastern provinces and districts like Vavuniya, Puttlam and Colombo together will poll over 500,000 additional votes for the UNP. Meanwhile the President, as he himself has openly said, must also remember how his own party members 'helped' him at the last presidential election. What is the guarantee that they will not do the same thing this time as well? It is likely that most of those black sheep might this time join the new Chandrika-Anura group that is in the offing. If that happen then what will be the impact of that break away on the expected results. This new group will never get an overall majority to form a government but it will definitely be a major contributory factor that could bring about the imminent defeat of the government. Because invariably it will help the UNP to form a government in order to protect their fastly dying out class interests, as they did it last time? In addition all the non-patriotic, anti Sinhala, anti-Buddhist forces both at home and abroad including multinationals, NGOO, foreign governments, Business tycoons and the anti government media will rally round the UNP as they have always done and do their utmost to defeat the present government. Even the LTTE under this situation will help the UNP. The TNA will also then join the UNP to defeat the common enemy. The net result of all these events will give a comfortable working majority to the UNP and finally once again Ranil will become the Prime Minister and the country will once again get bogged in the usual game of dirty 'politricks' where bargaining communal politics will reign. Thereafter in the first place MR will fall back to the same situation, if not worse, to which Chandrika fell last time when the SLFP failed to get a working majority in the House after the 2001 election, as a result of which Ranil became the Prime Minister. Once Ranil is installed as the PM with this result it is imminent that the following two things will happen immediately. Firstly, This will complete the permanent division of the country. Thereafter, that will also mark the end of all what we have inherited and so dearly cherished over the past 25 centuries. This is nothing for Ranil compared with what he did under the CFA. Under this foolish document he agreed to accept the existence of a separate territory for the LTTE, disarmed all others other than the LTTE who had taken to arms against the government, thereby giving the LTTE an open mandate to kill all of them and also allowed them to freely move about in the whole country with arms by lifting the ban and all security barriers while simultaneously totally inactivating the government armed forces by confining them to barracks. Through this agreement he also elevated the LTTE to equal status with the democratically elected Sri Lankan government. The UNP under this present evasive leadership who is clinging to power like a limpet in spite of enormous opposition within the party is totally averse to all what is national. The leadership lives in a dream world completely alienated from the ground realties of Sri Lankan politics or the aspirations of its people. The leaders have no political vision or ideology that has its roots on Sri Lankan soils or its traditions. As such the ongoing government's talks with them, I don't think will take you any where, besides it's possible significance as a political strategy to mark time and create more dissension among its members which might finally benefit the government.. The fact that the UNP has already asked for 16 ministries under the coalition (This will invariably be followed by the demand for the Premiership as well) clearly indicates their long- term political strategy. Nevertheless I must also say going for a national consensus, if they can, would be ideal. But consensus on what is the billion-dollar question? As the famous Sinhala say goes 'Ya deka norata rata samanga pesenu neta'. At this stage it may be useful for the President and his close advisors to be reminded of the famous statement Machiavelli once made ' He who is the cause of another's being made powerful ruins himself'. Also to quote from Panchatantra, it want be out of place to remind of the Six tactics namely, Sandhi,Vigrha,Yana, Asana, Sangraha and dvaidhibhava used in the science of statecraft of ruining an enemy. Who knows thatWhat control the President will have on the UNP Ministers to keep them with the government? Will they not leave the government, the movement the President says no to something, thereby toppling the government. Secondly, the UNP with the help of all these anti national forces and the Chandrika faction in the SLFP will move for an impeachment against MR and put an end to all what the patriotic people of this country have laboured for and gained over the years. Is this what the 'so-called inside advisors' who ask the President
to go for elections this year want to happen? And is this the trap in
which willingly or unwillingly the President is going to get caught? With his election they expected an end to the monopoly of government by the Colombo based comprador politicians, who are ever ready to do anything and everything under the sun if that helps them to be in power. People also expected the dawn of a new era of patriotic politics, which will put the people and the country before personal interests. It is in this backdrop the present President came to power on the wave of a massive national resurgence movement spearheaded by all patriotic forces heavily backed by the JVP and the JHU (perhaps inadvertently helped by the LTTE boycott) defeating all the anti- national, unpatriotic forces (including Bandaranaikes and their sympathizers) both at home and abroad desperately trying to defeat him. This is exactly what happened in 2005. Having won the elections, by the skin of the tooth, as the critics used to often declare, amid all odds and conspiracies operating both at the domestic and foreign fronts the President over the past few months, in spite of trifles that exist between him and his main supporters like the JVP and the JHU who played a critical role at his election, has successfully consolidated his position on the Sri Lankan polity. This, I do not think, any prudent man can deny. It is heartening to note that in spite of these minor differences the JVP and JHU still continue to support the government on all-important national issues including his stand on the LTTE. The Presidents political acumen and farsightedness has also enabled him to win over certain sections of the UNP and also the estate Tamils, at least for the time being. With all these elements behind him the government commands about 130 seats in the present Parliament. The rest of the opposition on the other hand is left with less than 95. So with this strength in the House coupled with the rising support around the country, the President, I think could comfortably sail through the present crisis without any major difficulty. So then, why this mighty hurry, to commit political suicide, so early by going for early elections? This aspect needs to be seriously addressed by the President and his genuine advisors. What is more is, the majority in this country do not want any more elections now. In fact they are already fed up with the mayhem involved with elections. The colossal amounts of national resources wasted and the precious time lost in the process has become already unbearable for the economy as well. Besides the direct cost involved in an election, which might exceed Rs1 billion, the loss that might accrue to the national economy during the pre- and post election period due to emerging widespread inactivity will also be substantial. The next question that prompts the government for early elections could be the need to get a 2/3 majority for constitutional amendments. Thanks to JR, getting a 2/3 majority under the present system of elections by any party I think is only a daydream. There is no argument that we need a new constitution or at least an amended one to resolve the national crisis and restore stability. But under the present situation liberating the country from terrorism is more important than any other. Therefore that has to be given priority over all other matters. The President has enough power to deal with the present situation under the constitution without going for amendments, which need a 2/3 majority. So what he should do first is to continue the present course of military operations to eradicate all the terrorist activities from the country and complete this mission of restoring law and order so that all the citizens can live without fear or terror thereafter. Once this major mission is complete then he should take the following measures to win over the masses including both his allies and opponents and consolidate the position in the country before he thinks of any kind of elections. 1. Reduce the present cabinet to 20 and cut down all excessive privileges made available to both politicians and public officials. (The king should first set the example) 2. Cut down all waste and political and administrative overheads by pruning all irrelevant and mushroom ministries, departments, corporations and other institutions and abolish the Provincial Councils, the curse of the provinces, which are a burden to the country's economy. (As it is they only provide jobs and unlimited privileges to political appointees and their families at government expense) 3. Take all measures to reduce the unbearable cost of living and provide facilities and incentives to farmers including those of Jaffna who once supplied the whole country with chilies, onions, mangoes, bananas and even murunga making a fortune out of it for themselves. 4. Crack down on all errant organizations and NGOO including INGOO who conspire against the government and show them that there is a government in this country now. 5. De-politicize the public service, install meritocracy as the hall mark of all state services, lay down a strict code of conduct and ethics and standards (like what you did to the diplomats the other day) for all public servants and take stern action on all bribery and corruptions right from the grama sevaka level up to the highest levels so that the people could reap the benefits of good governance under your government. 6. Restore and Re-activate the LTTE ban, de-merge the North and the
East, send back the Norway 7. Give a patient hearing to JVP and JHU (uninterrupted by interested pressure groups, like the dead LSSP and CP, which cannot collect even 10 votes for you and those pro-UNP and pro-Chandrika elements within the government) and get these two groups in to the government fold. (I consider them as better friends than any as they were the people who stood by you through thick and thin during the Presidential elections sharing a common vision on nation building). It is far, far better to enter in to alliances with such people with a common vision and an ideology rather than those with opposing policies and visions running contrary to yours because then, even if you lose personally, your vision will ultimately win. 'The bird in the hand is worth ten in the bush' 8. Meanwhile try to enlist the support of patriotic elements of the UNP as well (for example persons like WJMLB. Sajit and Karu Jayasuriya) who identify themselves with the common people. 9. Play safe with all international pressures and prove them that we
can manage 10. Stand firmly and consistently (Sel? yath? ekagan?) by the patriotic
forces that supported you in People believe that justice is really done only when it is shown that it is done. . Similarly your actions must clearly demonstrate to the people that all what you do is done in their interest. If you are only brave enough to do so, I have no doubt that the whole nation will rally round you and you will be raised above all other contemporary politicians as the leader who did the correct thing at the correct time in the history of this country. There after you can go for constitutional amendments, political reforms and elections or take what ever steps you deem fit to take for the good of the country's future. I also have no doubt then that besides winning the present battle against
the LTTE and Your disguised friends you will also go down in history
as the natural leader of the common man who achieved many uncommon things
for them and rescued this Island nation from the present political,
economic, social and cultural abyss in to which past rulers have thrown
us in to . Thereafter the people of this country will worship you forever,
as the national hero of the 21st century Sri Lanka. |
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