Amal Jayasinghe and his doomsday prediction shoud not distract the government

Dr Kamal Wickremasinghe

Somethings about the Sri Lankan war are quite predictable: one of these is that every time the government forces gain the upper hand, various groups with 'concerns' ranging from fundamental Human Rights to deaths of 'civilians' come out of the woodwork, advocating restraint.

The chorus is led by the usual suspects - foreign spies masquerading as NGO officials and journalists, the so-called donors, and of course, our ‘masters’, the UK and US ambassadors: in short, groups with hidden agendas. They usually use the services of local 'carpetbagger' collaborators.

Needless to say, these advocates of decent human behaviour remain palpably quiet during LTTE massacres of police and troops under a Norwegian ceasefire they exploit to their advantage. Nor do they make any noises, let alone condemn when the LTTE murderou gangs mow down unarmed civilian families -men women and infants- in farming communities close to the Wanni and the East.

A recent despatch by the local AFP 'agent' (in more senses than one) Amal Jayasinghe, under the heading 'Lack of cash pushes Sri Lanka to peace talks' is the latest effort of this group. Jayasinghe's article follows the script to the letter: it is attempting to use 'concerns', this time about the Sri Lankan economy, as a means of dissuading the government from wiping out the cancer that has afflicted it for over thirty years.

On the basis of opinions of unnamed 'analysts', a couple of retired Generals and of course, the British High Commissioner, Mr Jayasinghe concedes that the military has turned the tide against the guerrillas in recent months. Then he pushes the theory that despite the apparent domination on the battlefield, a dwindling war chest may have forced the government to enter peace talks ordered by foreign donors.

It appears that Mr Jayasinghe has not seen reports that the government denied the suggestions of Solheim that the government has agreed to ‘talks’. He goes on to add that "The Tigers themselves have been calling for talks after accusing the military of killing ‘civilians’ and destroying property". He also seems to be unaware of the ususl LTTE trickery of posthumous granting civilian status to all its fighters.

Apart from this dubious factual basis, Mr Jayasinghe's extremely 'dodgy 'core argument about the impending economic disaster goes like this:

1. The 25 billion dollar Sri Lankan economy depends on up to one billion dollars in external ‘aid’;
2. On the negative side of the ledger, the current defence expenditure amounts to 700 million dollars; and
3). The government risks raising the (nearly) one billion dollars if the 'daily killings' were to continue.
Mr Jayasinghe also relies on several adjuncts to his theory:
a) he casts doubts about the ability of the government to achieve the Central Bank's economic growth forecast of seven to eight percent. This assertion is not backed by any evidence, other than to say that the bank 'has not factored in a full-blown war into its calculations'. (But he contradicts himself by pointing to the 7.9 percent growth rate in the first half of the year, despite an upsurge in violence that has claimed at 1,500 lives in the past 10 months).

b) he point out that inflation hit 15.3 percent last month, up from 10.9 percent a year ago, and is one of the highest in South Asia.

c) international ‘ratings’ agency Standard and Poor has downgraded Sri Lanka's outlook to negative in April.

This is clearly the deceptive methodology adopted by his benefactors. Obviously, they would like the war to drag on, destroying the economic and historically unique cultural and educational base of Sri Lanka; they could bribe Balasingham to gain a foothold in a future Elam. So why would they want to support a government victory? They will manipulate, lie, deceive and threaten to prevent a resolution of this destructive war.

Implicit in this analysis is the argument that, somehow, winning the war will be bad for the Sri Lankan economy. According to the sums given in his article by Mr Jayasinghe, the Sri Lankan population should be prepared to undergo continuous physical suffering (not to mention the mental agony and physical danger the people are subject to) for potential hand-outs from the overlords.

In short, Mr Jayasinghe is blind to the simple nonsense in mortgaging national independence (and wellbeing) for a 'potential' net benefit of $300 million (despite the on-going cost of war of $700 million annually by his own method of accounting). Based on these estimates, he is unable or unwilling to see the simple rationality of Sri Lankan government wanting to eliminate the Tigers ‘plague’ for the obvious long term economic and other benefits.

It is understandable that Mr Jayasinghe, (as a free lance journalist?) is 'singing for his supper'. But all local employees of foreign manipulators need to be conscious of the causes they may be advocating through their lack of appreciation of the techniques used by these parties.

The government policy makers should ignore Amal Jayasinghes of Sri Lanka who put their personal gain before the common good of the starving poor in Sri Lanka. The ‘economy’ and the economic judgement he is referring to is that made by foreign money lenders who have a vested interest in making the poor ‘poorer’ so that they can lend them more money at higher interest rates and buy out their national wealth for virtually nothing.

If the government solves the problem of the ethnic war ‘once and for all’ even at a cost temporary hardship (due to undermining by foreign and local agents), there is no limit to what Sri Lanka can achieve in terms of a bright future for all its peoples, Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and others.

The government needs to keep its nerve and follow this path.