CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

Why Prabhakaran loves elections

The Island Editorial 13-09-2007

It never rains but it pours. The LTTE has faced a string of military debacles during the past few months. The sinking by the Navy of three LTTE vessels carrying urgently needed military material and aircraft on Monday and Tuesday is by far the worst ever disaster the outfit has suffered. It is desperate for the replenishment of its arsenal which is depleted as the offensives since the Mavil Aru battle have drained its lethal stocks heavily. Of late, the LTTE has cut down on the use of its big guns and the indications are that it is terribly short of artillery shells, a prerequisite for countering a possible foray by the army into the Wanni. Prabhakaran must be really paranoid with the threat of an onslaught on his stronghold looming large. Else, he wouldn’t have called for three arms shipments simultaneously and put, in the process, all his eggs in one basket, which the Navy crushed in style. The recent downgrading of Sea Tiger chief Soosai’s position following a series of humiliating losses in sea battles and the clashes between the Soosai faction and the gangs loyal to LTTE intelligence chief Pottu Amman in Norway are indicative of the growing frustration and desperation of Prabhakaran and his loyalists.

When Prabhakaran had a group of about one hundred naval personnel on non-combat duty killed at a transit point in Habarana by a truck bomb sometime ago, he may have thought he had broken the Navy’s back. But, as the wise old folk say in this country, ‘dawn doesn’t come after just only one dream’. The sinking of the three floating military warehouses has come as a nightmare for him.

The war may not be over but a cursory look at Prabhakaran’s report card will show a number of ‘Fs’, beginning from the Mavil Aru battle last year. He is certainly in trouble with the myth of his invincibility in tatters. After over two decades of fighting, he has reached a stage where he can neither go on the offensive nor defend himself on his own and is dependent on his sympathizers in NGOs and elsewhere for survival. Some of them, we learn, have gone abroad in a bid to give the LTTE oxygen by generating international pressure to restrain the government from launching offensive operations in the Wanni. Nedumaran is dying to come here with provisions. Reports from India at the time of writing said he had been arrested in that country together with a band of his supporters. The pro-LTTE NGO lobby is busy organising lectures and workshops where foreign speakers try to give the government the jitters and confuse the armed forces. Some western diplomats are running helter-skelter like the ‘canine with petrol poured on their posterior’ in a frantic effort to prevent a full scale offensive in the North. They may claim their concern for the collateral damage as the reason but if that is so why aren’t they trying to stop the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, where a far worse situation prevails? However, even if they succeeded in thwarting military operations in the North, Prabhakaran wouldn’t be safe as cracks have already appeared in his once monolithic organisation. The on-going clashes between Soosai and Pottu Amman are a case in point. On the other hand, with an effective naval blockade scuttling his arms smuggling operations—there may be only a few more of his ships left—he has no hope of regaining his military strength. Worse, the people trapped in the areas under his control are desperate to flee and this will surely compel him to resort to much more repressive methods to make them toe the line thus making himself too embarrassing even to his international allies. How long can a man who is being projected as Sun God go on like that? It is doubtful whether his massive ego will allow him to be checkmated by the government so ignominiously.

Prabhakaran may not have representation in at least a humble Pradeshiya Sabha but paradoxically he loves elections. For, every deus ex machina for him in the past has come in the form of an election. In the late 1980s, he was saved by the election of the late President Ranasinghe Premadasa, who sent the IPKF home at a time they were poised to take Prabhakaran. In 1994, President D. B. Wijetunge was on the warpath determined to crush the LTTE, when Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga was elected President and a truce followed giving him a breather.

He must have been disappointed greatly last Thursday, when the government managed to get its Finance Amendment Bills ratified, dashing his hopes of a premature dissolution of Parliament. However, he cannot be bearing the Rathu Sahodarayas ill will any longer. He must be one of their great fans after their performance in the House on that day. Although they failed to defeat the bills in question, they really made an effort to do so even at the risk of hara-kiri. This is not the first time the Rathu Sahodarayas have come to his rescue in spite of their much flaunted opposition to separatist terror. What a battle they fought to chase the IPKF out before it made mince meat of the Tigers! They killed thousands of people and destroyed state property worth billions of rupees to achieve that objective which stood Prabhakaran in good stead. (Ironically, today, they are prostrating themselves before the Indian leaders beseeching their intervention!)

So, Prabhakaran, wherever he may be, must be hoping and praying that President Rajapaksa will continue to bungle on the political front and get wrong-footed. Hope springs eternal …

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