Three More Years of War?

Dilrook Kannangara

It is utterly disturbing to hear the recent statement by an unnamed “top defence” person claiming the war effort will go for another 3 years. We have heard this before many a time and those who are capable of sustained memory will tell him that his 3 years will never end. As we have experienced for the past 24 years, the conflict has spelt doom for the nation and has become increasingly dangerous, sophisticated and involved.

If the maker of the statement was aware that 2007 plus 3 equals 2010 and 2004 plus 6 also equals 2010, he may not have used “three years”!! (explained below)

Further 3 years of war has the following consequences.

1. Plummeting morale of the security forces. Even the US, British and other coalition forces have been feeling this by the fourth year in 2006 in Afghanistan when they started suffering an increased number of casualties. They have long passed this threshold in Iraq!! In our case, three years of casualties cannot be compensated by sustainable recruitment of new soldiers if we are talking war as casualties have a ripple effect. May be the same fate of operation “Jayasikurui” will befall the present military campaign. It is the last thing that we want.

2. Increased sophistication of the LTTE armour. Over the years they have improved on their technology and anyone would tell that we had finished the war at its inception. There is a very strong possibility of LTTE acquiring and using chemical, biochemical and/or biological weapons. That would give them an enormous advantage amidst losses in mostly conventional warfare.

3. The year 2010 is an election year and as we have seen in 1988, 1989, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2005 (election years after 1983), there were huge military setbacks. Most notably in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2001 elections were followed by catastrophic terror campaigns. There is not a hint of doubt that this trend will repeat in 2010 if the war continues to rage till then. Add to this, a possible government change and/or assassination of national leaders; we will be back to square one and the merry-go-round will continue!!

4. Unbearable strain on the national economy as FDIs and tourism (and of course other industries as well) will suffer enormously. Also there will be constant and blatant disruptions to economic activity not to mention terror attacks; LTTE has 3 years to do so!! Moreover, our competitive position in the region will deteriorate to the extent of the point-of-no-return. Already we are the slowest growing economy in the South and South-East Asian region in terms of real GDP growth rate and things will get worse. However, as with business cycles, economic booms are followed by times of slowing down economic activity (recession) on a global scale. Impact of a global recession on our fragile economy would be gigantic. Knowing this too well, the LTTE and their peace brigade ARE (emphasis added) doing everything they can, to economically suffocate its enemy. If anyone has followed the drama surrounding the representations made to the EU, etc. by these traitors lobbying them to take economically disastrous decisions concerning our country will know what I am talking about. Simply our economy cannot sustain a prolong war and inversely, a prolonged war cannot sustain a decent growth in economy. Surprisingly we all know these facts very well; if so why have three more years of war?

5. Economic meltdown brings about political instability. I only refer to what actually happens anywhere in the world and not theory. A classic example is 2001; ensued political instability and degeneration led to one of the most despicable acts of treason the world has seen.

6. Increased brain-drain from Sri Lanka; this is a very serious problem and the worse part is yet to be evident. Although most of them are attracted to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, UK and the US for better quality of life, a major factor remains civil unrest primarily brought about by the war. We will have to rely on very highly paid foreigners to do jobs that Sri Lankans are well capable of doing. It also has other ramifications affecting the society as it is only the (reasonably) affluent people that are leaving. This drives overall poverty levels high and takes away a sizable portion of the GDP, foreign reserves and national investments in public education.

7. By products of war – the underworld, drugs, treason, lawlessness, high national debt, suppression of democratic rights – are going to stay with us for a multiple of 3 more years. We might have to again welcome the likes of IGP Anandarajah.

8. Increased avenues and opportunities for international mediation and interference. We all know how our sovereignty is already threatened by unwelcomed “vile agents”. Visibility of our conflict is set to increase when the coalition forces withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan and we can expect renewed interest in Sri Lanka. This will ensure that we are left with a perpetual war.

9. Prolonged conflicts will put-off major projects including the Hambantota port project. It also allows our resources to be exploited by foreign nations.

10. Increased threat of disintegration (it is happening too soon). CWC and SLMC demanded that they be awarded increased power and autonomy over some specified regions. These demands didn’t crop up recently as the claim for “malayanadu” was made in 1987 if not before and the dream of a separate muslim state also dates back in time. I cannot imagine what the future holds for us if the trend of disintegration continues for another three years.

The list is much longer than this and a responsible government is supposed to know all these and act accordingly. Prolonged conflicts cause frustration and force the people to believe the likes of Sripathy Sooriyarachchi (SS) and also to look for (bizarre) alternative methods to solve it. One such alternative was to recognise the LTTE as the sole representative of Tamils and also as the (de facto and de jure) ruler of uncleared areas.

There was also mentioning of the utopian benefits of the elusive “political solution”. I call it elusive because no country in the world has satisfied unyielding and uncompromising terrorists by way of a political solution. On the other hand, geography or ethnicity based devolution has its share of perils including ethnic and regional disintegration. Additionally, as the proponents of the “political solution” themselves have stated, war will continue irrespective of such a solution as long as the LTTE avoids the democratic mainstream. In that case it is the dramatisation of how Mahadenamutta “solved” the complication of the goat and the pot; similarly, we will end up having neither peace nor a Sri Lanka to live-in.

Law and order is the essential ingredient for peace; lawlessness and disorder as envisaged in the CFA for example, is the opposite of peace. Otherwise the UNESCO peace price would be shared between Parabakaran and Ranil (did I mention sharing?) instead of awarding it to the fiercest critic of the CFA, Mr.Anandasangaree.

Terrorism is a real threat and has to be defeated militarily even for a practical consideration of any “political solution”. It is worthwhile to note that the terrorists have hunted, hurt or haunted all the architects of “political solutions”. There is no concurrent existence (let alone co-existence) of terrorism and “political solutions”.

We are fully cognizant of the fact that the war cannot be brought to an abrupt end, however, a timeframe of more than one year is simply unacceptable. When criticism is taken constructively, as SS pointed out, we have never attempted to destroy the single most determinant factor in the conflict, namely Parabakaran nor have we attempted to destroy the LTTE nerve centre in Vanni. If the aforementioned defence person wants three more years without doing his homework, he is only wasting our time; that is the time of 20 million people; in proper jargon 526 billion man-hours!! To quote Ted Turner, “you should either lead/follow or get-out-of-the-way”. What a time waster this “defence person” is; maybe its best for everyone if he steps down and allows someone capable to takeover. For instance I can do a better job than him, seriously.