East is More Important for the
LTTE than Wanni
Dilrook Kannangara
Tigers are at their best in jungles may it be Thoppigala or Wanni.
The last battle to kill the last tiger will definitely be fought in
a jungle hideout. It is a known fact that Jaffna is the most important
target of the LTTE. The next most important target is not Wanni where
they are trapped now, but the East.
East is a must to capture Jaffna as the Wanni route has failed
Terrorists are trying their level best to capture Jaffna ever since
it fell from their hands in 1995. In a daring show of prowess it banged
on the doors to Jaffna in 2000 amidst over 200 foreign reporters waiting
to record a ‘historical’ moment. Unfortunately for them, it
never came though Ranil jumped the gun and declared that tigers have
captured Jaffna! The elite brigade of the LTTE called the ‘Jeyanthan’
brigade led by colonel Karuna Amman refused to go ahead after his intelligent
assessment showed that it would be a massacre of LTTE cadres if it stormed
into the SLA garrisoned area where our forces were ready to show their
superior fighting skills. Then the LTTE attention fell on Trincomalee
as it is used to transport all essentials to Jaffna forces. Tigers built
camp after camp around Trinco after attempting to take it in 2000. The
2002 Cease and Fire Agreement (CFA) amply helped them in constructing
new bases in Manirajakulam, Sampoor, Muttur, etc. People were chased
away from these areas and the attempted ethnic cleansing in Serunuwara
ended when people threatened to take matters into their own hands. A
number of satellite camps were built around Trinco on all three fronts
mainly along the seafront. Without these bases and support bases, the
LTTE can never take Trinco or Jaffna. The first and second capitals
of their dreamland would be further away from realisation after the
fall of East. No Tamil Elam without Jaffna; no Jaffna without Trinco;
no Trinco without the East.
‘Cheap’ Eastern cadres verses losing family members
Have you ever heard of the LTTE forcibly recruiting children from the
North? If you have, it is only a very few instances as the tiger recruitment
fields are mainly in the East. This is owing to the fact that the LTTE
thinks the Northerners are superior to the Easterners. Thousands of
children were conscripted and trained not in Wanni but in the East.
This also helped the LTTE to maintain a ‘good name’ in Wanni
where its leaders are hiding. It desperately needed this ‘good
name’ in order to stop the Wanni dwellers supporting the enemy.
Now it is fast losing it as forced recruitment is now taking place in
Wanni which will soon result in LTTE losing the support of its neighbours.
This has strategic implications. LTTE leaders fear infiltration and
treason more than anything else. This is evident in the manner they
eliminated the Long Range Unit or the Deep Penetration Unit. With its
citizenry increasingly getting frustrated with the losing of their family
members to LTTE recruitment, it can be expected that infiltrations would
increase in Wanni. Even some of its own dwellers will carryout anti-LTTE
activities. A single claymore explosion in Wanni can send shock waves
into the manholes where their leaders are hiding.
People escaping from Wanni is another major threat to the LTTE. Some
of the 150 lodgers who were evicted were from Wanni and the moment the
news hit headlines, LTTE offered to welcome them. This ought to have
been a sure appointment with death and none accepted the ‘offer’
even with free transport.
In spite of regular SLAF bombardment and military operations, only a
very few have crossed to the government controlled area from Wanni.
This is in stark contrast to what happened in the East when the security
forces were gaining the upper hand. This is evidence of a stronger LTTE
clutch on Wanni residents. More than passing information on LTTE installations,
weapons dumps, air assets, leaders’ hiding places, main supply
routes, jungle training camps, bunkers, etc. to the army, the terrorists
are scared to lose its human shield which has been more effective than
the deepest bunker. A bunker with even 3.5 metres of concreted reinforcement
can be blasted by SLAF M-80 bombs, but not the human shields! Get on
to the wrong side of the Wanni people, LTTE is bound to lose them.
The K-factor
The LTTE sees the liberation of the East as a boon to their archrival
Karuna. It has been a very long time since these two groups clashed
with each other. Therefore, the TMVP has distanced from the LTTE in
terms of its reach. Democratisation of the TMVP would mean more defections
as democracy appeals to most than dictatorship. The good of both democracy
and rebellion would be a sure attraction for any LTTE leader. Easterners
emerging as a democratic force is the last thing the LTTE wants. It
knows the fruits of democracy (no matter how violent the elections are!)
cannot be taken away once tasted. This is why the LTTE and its sister
organisations are hell bent on disrupting proposed elections. Killing
of an official should not deter the government on its worthy cause;
instead, it should further resolve to somehow hold the election. East
has witnessed 10 elections after 1983 and there is no reason why another
cannot be held now. For instance as the East was ready for the 2005
Presidential Election, 2 years ago, there is no valid reason why it
shouldn’t be ready for a provincial election now!! Not only the
LTTE, even the ‘moderate Tamil Elamists’ would be offended
by holding an election. Easterners have already chartered their own
course and they should be allowed to elect their own representatives
as in the Western province. As Karuna put it ‘we want what Colombo
gets’ and the most valuable thing we have is democracy.
Jungle warfare and conventional warfare
Terrorists have always shown remarkable superiority in jungle warfare
whereas the security forces have traditionally been the masters of conventional
warfare. East is a battleground of jungle/guerrilla warfare and the
LTTE had its superiority there. Of course, they lost their favourite
battlefield. The Northern theatre has proven in the past one year to
entertain conventional warfare. True enough the LTTE did keep the SLA
at bay in most confrontations in the North, but, when the big guns of
battle of the security forces go off in the North, LTTE would be at
the receiving end. The commissioning of the new artillery wing of the
army recently (public news) also spells doom for the LTTE. The use of
supersonic jets and heavy explosives also come as bad news for the tigers.
Now the war will be fought on our terms.
You can run but you can’t hide
As threatened by the terrorists they will carry out terror attacks in
Colombo, etc. If a teacher is good at teaching and a farmer is good
at farming, then a terrorist must be good at terrorising. Thank god,
we follow the most effective deterrent- retaliation. Retaliatory attacks
on LTTE positions would make more powerful statements in future as all
tiger leaders are hiding in Wanni with no room for movement. Few such
attacks would really cripple the LTTE beyond recovery. If Tamil Slevam
thought only Sri Lanka has an economy, its time he think of their own
little economy before it turns into dust. I’m sure the LTTE should
understand their vulnerability and our response to their attacks and
thereby retract any attempted terror attacks on economic nerve centres.
If they don’t have this foresight, then a few retaliatory strikes
will certainly drive home the bitter truth. The fall of East is a very
big disadvantage in this regard, as it provided ample hiding places
that Wanni cannot offer.
Shiploads of weapons
Shiploads of weapons found their way into tiger enclaves from the vast
shoreline mainly in the east (approximately 500 kilometres). Now it
is gone. Instead, they have to unload their stuff in the seafront from
Pulmodei to Pallai in the North Eastern seashore. This area is constantly
patrolled by the SLN and is in the midst of Trinco-KKS main supply route.
It will be easily detectable and prone to attacks when tigers try to
bring in weapons into this area alone. This is the cost of running out
of options, namely the longest seafront in the island.
Manning the east
Self-named defence analysts say the army will be too stretched in the
East to man it effectively thus attracting LTTE attacks. This has happened
in the past. Given the fact that terrorists have even infiltrated Melbourne,
it is no wonder if they infiltrate the East! However, in order to create
a 1999-2000 style debacles in the East today, the LTTE needs a large
number of cadres to overcome SLA ambush attacks, TMVP attacks and has
to rely on open fields to hide. The moment a large LTTE mobilisation
takes place close to SLA areas, it gives a remarkable opportunity for
the SLAF bombers to throw their ‘nets’ as the catch would
be in abundance. We have leant from the past and now we know when to
use what, unlike these ‘analysts’ of the 1980s.
Foreign aid and the economics of the East
Foreign aid is needed to develop the East as we cannot alone shoulder
the perils of 24 years. The three-pronged strategy is working very well
and the resettlement work was so successful that it attracted praise
from many quarters. If the UNP and other LTTE fronts wanted foreign
aid to stop, they are in for a disappointment. Although such big plans
as the Great Opposition Leader’s plan to build the first Formula
One racing track in Trinco would be absent, more practical and relevant
projects will take place. Proper utilisation of foreign aid will result
in continued aid. East has an enormous potential for agricultural, fisheries,
mining, industrial and other business opportunities. It was after 1986
that some areas in the East got the freedom for fishing. Though the
start may be quite small-scale, avenues for economic growth have been
opened already. To facilitate this, tiger tax has stopped for good.
Another tiger plan goes down the drain.
Tamil Elam: from dream to nightmare
Along with the East tigers lost Tamil Elam. Northern and Eastern provinces
were merged in 1987 as per LTTE demands. N-E represented their Tamil
homeland. However, in the East Tamil is the smallest ethnic group. The
LTTE overcame this by merging it with a Tamil only North. When more
than a million strong Tamil only Jaffna and Wanni came into the equation,
Tamil became the majority in the N-E. In terms of the LTTE’s Tamil
Only policy, LTTE has no worries in the North. Its worries are in the
East where repeated acts of genocide, riots and other acts of terror
failed to chase away the Sinhalese and Muslims. Now it is going to be
almost impossible. Our military forces and the JVP scored this homerun
against Tamil Elam by liberating and separating the East. This is how
military and political solutions should go hand in hand.
The threat of the IC intervening and forcing a ‘political’
solution
Some doomsayers predicted that the international community will force
upon the country a ‘political’ solution. First, it cannot
be a ‘political’ solution as it bypasses all the political
processes and the sovereignty of the people. Now the IC would be more
reluctant to interfere with such a package as the ‘LTTE’s
line of control’ has gone backwards. LTTE would never accept the
new ‘line of control’ and it would be the tigers that would
first reject such interference. This is a very powerful deterrent against
unwarranted interference. It is clever thinking on the part of the government
to frustrate the incentives for the IC to intervene. Now where are those
who appealed and begged to the UN, etc. to intervene? If their wishes
were granted, it will be an amputated Tamil Elam without its reproductive
organs!! To complete the picture, the ill-fated CFA should be abrogated
soon.
Cordoned-off
LTTE is in an unenviable position today. Except for the few seafronts,
it is cordoned-off. Although they had a place to run to when the East
was attacked, when Wanni is attacked they have nowhere to run. May be
a trapped tiger would fight ever more ferociously, but the hunter has
an even better chance. It is pathetic that the UNP harps on how LTTE
leaders escaped from Thoppigala knowing too well that it is the LTTE
leaders who escape first before their child soldiers. Enough LTTE leaders
have been killed lately by the security forces and others not only in
the East but also in Mankulam. In a similar vein, one may ask how come
the UNP leader has survived for so long to set a record as Sri Lanka’s
longest standing Opposition Leader after so many defeats and a dramatic
shrinkage of its parliamentary strength. Its the same answer; he has
a place to run to, namely media that is controlled by him, his brother,
mother and his henchmen. With that help, he lives to fight another day.
His position will be strengthened when two more ‘media moguls’
join him soon. However, their journalists cannot bailout the LTTE from
its trap.
Many have highlighted the importance of the East to the GoSL. The above
are some indisputable facts of how things have gone horribly wrong for
the LTTE. However, they will try to win back their lost territory because
it is so important for them. A swift and planned onslaught on Wanni
with an aim to annihilate the LTTE would complete what we have started.
The Wanni battle will be an exciting one given the fact that we are
not interested in real estate in the North. If LTTE leaders escape the
Northern battle, then there is something fishy going on, as theoretically
they have nowhere to run. If that happens, we have to check, scrutinize
and investigate the closets of the Rajapakses; we may find a tiger or
two.
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