Should the Budget Address National
Needs or Personal Needs of Legislators?
Dilrook Kannangara
Those legislators who cannot serve their electorate find it better
to get whatever available or gettable and leave the legislature. Interestingly
all the politicians who tried to cross over and crossed over already
ahead of the budget are no more than useless in their respective electorates.
Arjuna (Kotte), Wijedasa (Maharagama - although a national list MP),
Nirupama (Hambantota district) and the four JHU monks tried to cross
over (or actually did so) citing many fancy reasons. One golden thread
that ties them all is that they are utterly unpopular in their electorates
and their electorates have not at all benefited from them! They have
nothing more to lose and would do anything to heap-up anything from
any source and vanish. However, contrary to the views of some ‘political
analysts’ the budget will be passed in parliament. Though it is
no reflection of the budget which is widely criticised for lacking many
vital aspects, it would certainly be for the benefit of the country.
Those propagating for an undue general election shrewdly forget the
enormous cost the country has to bear without any return not to mention
the killings and other violence associated with an election.
Unbearable cost of undue elections
Going by the publicised figures for the 2004 general election and applying
reported inflation rates for three and a half years, a general election
now would cost at least 35 billion rupees. These includes billions spent
by political parties, billions wasted to the economy due to elections,
curfew and other disturbances and billions of damages to public and
private property plus the environmental damage. The jumbo cabinet that
costed an additional 650 million rupees this year is amply justified
over an undue election. Apart from these direct costs (that are unbearable
anyway) there are other indirect costs that are higher including the
effects on the economy due to extreme political instability, possible
political deadlock if an anti-president government is elected, possibly
yet another election in two years and ensuing atmosphere of anarchy.
What such a situation would provide to the LTTE is immeasurable.
Therefore undue elections must be avoided at all cost.
Real reasons for all Sri Lanka’s problems
Changing governments does not solve any underlying problems. The biggest
problems facing the country include high cost of living, terrorists,
corruption and other related problems. Can an election force the OPEC
to bring down the oil prices? Can an election bring down the price of
milk powder? Will a government change bring about peace (as opposed
to postponing the war)? Will the next government be comprised of less
corrupt politicians? The answer to all these is a resounding NO. This
can only get worse.
Without solving the real root causes for these problems and instead
changing the ruling party or the government’s composition cannot
in any way solve the nation’s problems. On the contrary, the economy
and security will fall from bad to worse following an undue election.
By following such foolish tactics like changing governments to solve
cost of living, etc. problems mean such problems will remain unsolved
forever as their root causes are not addressed!
The budget decision is a political decision for the JVP
The only significant influence at the budget voting can be exercised
by the JVP. In other words only the JVP matters at the budget voting.
If there is going to be another election the JVP will have to go it
alone and in all likelihood it cannot get anything close to 39 seats.
This will be the end of the JVP as it always projected to be an ascending
force just as Hitler’s National Socialists in the 1930s. If the
public see the JVP going in the reverse gear that will permanently cripple
their perception. To make things worse, the SLFP has regained a large
chunk of their vote base lost to the JVP during CBK’s rule. Aggressive
military campaigns have been the key to attract these voters and if
an election is called, surely the government will display spectacular
military prowess and this will definitely appeal to the masses. Same
with cost of living related sweeteners that will have to be borne by
the next government. Knowing these too well, the JVP wishes not to go
for an election now.
Their four demands have nothing to do with the budget; these demands
can have a mixed response from the government benchers. It is pathetic
how the UNP, other pro-LTTE organisations and even the LTTE go after
the JVP begging, beseeching and pleading on bended knees to vote against
the budget after calling them extremists; surely they have no shame.
Somawansa Amerasighe has become their patron, saviour and god after
trying to kill him eighteen years ago; many kiss the hand they wish
to cut!
UNP’s chances are even bleaker
UNP has cracked in half from the middle. Those few government MPs without
portfolios might vote with the UNP/TNA against the budget but that cannot
have any significant influence. Suppose the UNP wins a subsequent general
election, it will be a political deadlock. Even the support CBK extended
to the UNP in 2001-2003 would not be there under Rajapakse or Wickremanayaka.
Situation in the North and the East would also be bleak as the LTTE
which is now regretting for not exploiting the CFA to the maximum, will
start fully exploiting the weak leadership. In no time they can capture
the whole North-East with a weak defence minister as the one in place
from 2001-2003. This means a subsequent election will be the funeral
of the UNP as all of its powerbases would have embraced the LTTE and
their agents in a worse scale than what happened in 2004.
Targeting the political turmoil, the LTTE might launch terror attacks
that can further plunge the political situation and the country into
disorder. In fact the crucial vote day (19) is a strong candidate for
terror violence. Those panicky MPs would jump to the UNP for pardon
from the LTTE leader.
Additionally the UNP is financed and backed-up by a section of the business
community who would expect manyfold returns from their ‘investments’
in the party and as a result would engage in tax evasion, extreme corruption
and price increases at an unprecedented scale. This is exactly what
happened in 2001-2004. When that happens, people would be worse off
and strive and strike to topple the UNP government. If such is not forthcoming,
they would simply change the government once again!! It should also
be noted that the meekly CFA surrender failed to reduce defence expenditure,
bring long term investors and revive the tourism industry to its pristine
glory.
Marginal supporters
Marginal supporters of the government including the SLMC/CWC leaders
and some UNP (D) group MPs find it difficult to make a firm decision
owing to the JVP’s unclear stance. Hence they play it safe and
wish to continue with the government. On the other hand they know that
it is now or never to topple the government. Canvassing for the individual
support of defecting government MPs would not be required as their collective
strength is insignificant. Besides, their ability to integrate with
the UNP for a successful political career is highly doubtful. It is
widely speculated in political circles that a bounty of rupees 5 billion
will be offered to anyone crossing from the government to the Opposition
while an opposite crossover attracts a ministry! The truth or otherwise
of these allegations must be looked into and any attempts to buy MPs
by terrorist elements needs to be punished as per PTA (Prevention of
Terrorism Act) provisions. It is strange that these money-pots never
face abductions!
The way ahead
The way ahead is not a ‘national’ government. If the conjoining
of the UNP and the SLFP is interpreted as a ‘national’ government
that is wrong ab initio since the UNP is not a national party any more;
they have long shed their national identity. Additionally, its leader
is excessively power hungry who will never be satisfied; his grudge
against the UNP (D) group means that there will be further splits in
the government. The government has three choices; it can win over the
JVP; neutralise the JVP or get support from other quarters (UNP, dissident
MPs). In either case, it can strengthen its position and stay its full
term. Terrorists must be exterminated as soon as possible and usher
in an era of law and order. Controversial and disagreeable political
solutions as adjudged by UPFA voters must be avoided at all cost; there
is no sense in betraying one’s own voters to satisfy non-voters
and voters of other parties. There are MPs who openly support the LTTE;
they should be punished according to relevant anti-terrorism laws as
per which they stand to lose parliamentary privileges and parliamentary
seats. Banning the LTTE is the first step toward this.
Simply the government must, at least now, start working for its own
voters’ aspirations! Their wants are straightforward as promised
at the last national election; end terrorism, restore law and order,
retain unitary status, alleviate their poverty, uplift their economy
and general good conduct by the rulers. They can sustain the government
in power for its full term and also re-elect it at elections. Such a
solution will end the demand and ransom culture prevalent among the
legislators today.
As long as greed rules the legislature, a separate budget allocation
for the passing of the very same budget may be required!
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