Will the Losing Streak Continue
Through April?
Dilrook Kannangara
Our ten man cricket team has suffered it again. No doubt our team
can win the world cup if we have a fully fledged set of batsmen and
bowlers (and of course fielders). However, the present 10 man team
failed recently for obvious reasons. One may point out to the absence
of Vass and Murali but the real reason is the absence of the 11th
man. I refer to Mahela who has failed repeatedly in the past tours.
Since his contribution is only in the batting department, inability
to score a decent amount of runs equate to playing only 10 in the
team.
There is no doubt in-form batsmen make the most contribution in tournaments.
On the other hand poor seasons in batting tend to continue during
tournaments. It is foolhardy to think that Mahela will recover from
his extraordinarily consistent poor cricket in time for the world
cup.
This is a special world cup for Sri Lanka as Sanath and Vass will
be playing their last; possibly it may be the last for Murali; though
his fans around the world pray that he doesn’t retire anytime
soon. We should leverage the maximum contribution from these two players
at the world cup. However, as seen in many occasions, team effort
is the key to success in any tournament. It is time a decision is
made about Mahela as his unproductive presence obstructs the placement
of another batsman in the team. It is ridiculous that he is allowed
to remain in the team after so many failures.
If Michael Hussey is tipped to be the most valuable batsman for the
2007 world cup, Mahela is the exact opposite.
It is also important that selectors are conversant with the relevance
of statistical analysis. For instance, ODI batting average (calculated
by total runs divided by the number of innings batted) times strike
rate (runs scored divided by the number of balls faced) should give
a clear indication of the true worth of a batsman. Care should be
taken to give a higher weightage to recent performance (immediately
past 2 years) over past performance.
Also factors such as match winning run scores should be factored in
when interpreting averages and strike rates.
The era of benchmarked scores of around 200 runs has long passed.
All teams endeavour to achieve nearly 290 or more runs every time.
Endurance of batsmen has vastly enhanced over the past 2 decades and
if we are to measure up with the new standards of the game, we need
batsmen who often score decent number of runs. Our existing batting
line-up on average can score 225 runs in 50 overs excluding extras.
In theory another 5 more runs can be added to the total by bringing
in fast strikers early (assuming they retain their averages). Although
it is a linear programming estimate based on individual strike rates
and averages, it shows how collectively weak the batting department
is in getting a total above 230 and how dependant the team is on capable
batsmen. Therefore, statistically it can be proven the dire need to
have batsmen who actually score for the team to have a decent total!
Apart from these direct performance measures, there are other human
factors that influence a team. When a non-performing captain ‘leads
from the front’, the others tend to be less motivated to achieve
their full potential. Moreover the ‘rocket propulsion’ that
pitched us among the likes of ‘regular winners’ is not there
in the team anymore. It is vital that our captain compares to at least
half of Ricky Ponting’s ability to drive the team and the scoreboard.
He has demonstrated in no small measure what the true contribution
of a captain should be.
Mahela’s post mortem sob stories are just too similar to the
rhetoric of a roadside vagrant. Forgive me if I’m too harsh but
many don’t agree that non-performers in the team should be accommodated
at all costs anticipating that one fine day they will perform. A classic
example they cite is our team’s dismal performance in the 1999
world cup. I’m afraid we are heading in the same direction now
and some sweeping measures are needed to bring on the 11th man from
the 15 man squad.
