FOREIGN HAND and foreign-led federation?

by Foxwatch, The Island

Despite a background of recent military successes, there remains an undercurrent of uneasiness, and an impression of covert activity designed to undermine the GOSL and prop up the LTTE.

Disquiet

Combining to create this disquiet are the LTTE's raid on the air base, the increase in LTTE attacks and propaganda, the pro-LTTE bias of the countries we have allowed to become our foreign masters - USA, EU, Japan, Norway, and India (G4+1); and a fatal fascination for flirting with excessive devolution and federation.

Looking at the broad picture adds to the sense of foreboding. Whatever we are doing hasn't been enough. The LTTE, although suffering reverses, still retains formidable land and sea power, and a new air wing which has embarrassed our air defence system; G4+1 are more determined than ever to prevent the military defeat of the LTTE (just as India did in 1987); most foreign countries still buy the LTTE propaganda line of oppression, discrimination, human rights violations, and traditional homelands; pro-LTTE NGOs flourish unchecked; and, most dangerous of all, the setbacks which the LTTE encountered on the military front have been amply compensated for by the progress it seems to be making on the political front, in the shape of Eelam through excessive devolution.

G4+1 to the Fore

This coincides with heightened activity by G4+1 in all the areas mentioned above - military, propaganda, fictitious claims for national homelands, NGOs, devolution. And while our woes cannot be blamed entirely on G4+1, the dangers of reliance on foreigners needs to be understood. Their grip on our policy on the insurgency has become so pervasive that we need to remind ourselves that we have brought this predicament upon ourselves. We are seeing the wages of our own servility to big powers.

The Palmerston-Dixit Dicta

Inviting or encouraging big powers to mediate in our internal disputes is fraught with peril. Appealing to bonds of friendship is a delusion. Even an apparently reasonable country would be primarily concerned with furthering its interest, not ours. It pays to heed the well-worn words of Palmerston and Dixit, quoted here one more time: "We have no eternal allies and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow." [Palmerston]; and "Inter-state relations are not governed by the logic of morality. They were and remain an amoral phenomenon." [Dixit].

Currently, the actions and words of G4+1 point to their interest being the destabilisation of Sri Lanka (within which Big Brother is pursuing its own agenda), and the pampering of the LTTE as an essential tool for the purpose.

The Crossette Factor

But in addition to the fact of life that, as Dixit wrote, international relations are amoral, there is a neglected but powerful factor which comes into play when foreign countries, and especially the USA, are allowed to thrust themselves into countries bedevilled by terrorism. This was articulated lucidly by U.S. journalist Barbara Crossette in a perceptive article published in The Island of January 2, 1994. She had been a senior editor of the New York Times, had been the NYT's correspondent in Asia from 1984 to 1991, and had won the George Polk Award for foreign reporting for her coverage of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. Extracts from her article are reproduced at length because they depict so accurately the plight of Sri Lanka today, thirteen years on, and its folly in constantly seeking western, and especially American help.

"The Censure of Beleaguered Governments"

"....recent history does not inspire confidence in the United States as an impartial arbiter in international ethnic disputes. In the last few decades, we have collectively misjudged the many dimensions of political conflicts rooted in ethnic or cultural divisions. The results have often been unfortunate. They include the application of almost intolerable international pressure only on one side of a milti-faceted problem, the censure of beleaguered governments of the inexplicable exoneration of others far more guilty of abuses, the denigration of some nationalist movements that cannot get a hearing, and the lionization of others that may not deserve the sympathy and support they attract".

Right on the button.

Too Busy to Know

Ms. Crossette also explains why the eminent Americans we run after, and the foreign press, are simply too busy to be well informed: "No one can possibly be an expert in all these areas, neither a busy member of Congress considering at once the issues offering aid, trade, sanctions or military action, nor most editorial writers and columnists in influential newspapers."

Big Brother

The Indian role receives an honourable mention as an example of big power manipulation.

"Both cases [Sri Lanka and Kashmir] show how a dominant regional power, in this case India, with a polished diplomatic corps and dedicated supporters abroad, can manipulate international opinion to the disadvantage of weaker parties. The result often frames the rest of the world's views the disputes"

"New Delhi .. denied in world forums what everyone in South Asia knew: India was supporting a movement that was trying to dismember a small neighbouring nation."

Intolerable Pressure

The pressures being applied by G4+1 1 illustrate perfectly the observations of Ms. Crossette. We have endured much in the past few months - demands from India for a devolution package/federation by a deadline; the parrot-like incantations of the US that there can be no military solution and that we must negotiate (contrary to the White House spokesman's remark that the US does not negotiate with terrorists, but puts them out of business); the UK echoing the mantram that the LTTE cannot be defeated military; Germany's threat to suspend aid; the US attempt to send a Special Envoy to "help bring about peace to conflict-ridden Sri Lanka"; feelers about a mediatory role for the UK; cryptic full page ads by unknown NGOS, threats of human rights resolutions by the EU and the UN.

The thrust of G4+1 is unmistakable; they demand, with increasing stridency, the suspension of military action, a return to fruitless negotiations during which the LTTE can re-arm, and a political package and a new Constitution which will end our unitary state, and provide autonomy for a merged North and East. All this, of course, would pave the way for Eelam.

Wilting Under Stress?

Perhaps it is this combined pressure that has induced ambivalent GOSL statements about devolution which can be interpreted as compromising the excellent Presidential Policy Statement of November 25, 2005, and raising the spectre of federation followed by Eelam in short order. Before embarking on a dangerous constitutional journey which would commit itself to irreversible and life-threatening changes, the GOSL needs to look at the big issues, keeping in mind the all- important context.

Illusory Safeguards

In particular, there can be no successful federation or even devolution until the LTTE is disarmed, publicly abandons its goal of a separate state, swears allegiance to Sri Lanka, and enters the democratic mainstream. So long as they do none of these things, as at present, any safeguards against secession would be illusory and not worth the paper they are written on.

Escape

To return to the problem of G4+1, it really does seem that their continuing interference is not compatible with the continued existence of Sri Lanka. We need to extricate ourselves from their grip. It is a task that requires great skill and courage, and a new stress on maximum possible self-reliance, but we have to begin somewhere, using all our resources of diplomacy and high-quality personnel.