CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

A precursor to the Wanni battle?

Editorial, The Island

Attack, the wounded Tigers seem to think, is the best form of defence. Within one year, ten of its arms smuggling ships or 'floating warehouses' as the Navy calls them, have been destroyed together with the Wanni-bound lethal cargo. They are faced with a severe shortage of ammunition, especially artillery shells because they have no way of replenishing their stocks due to intensified naval patrol in the Northern and Eastern seas. The Air Force keeps pounding the targets in the Wanni day in day out. The Army is poised to march on the Wanni but is acting with restraint due to international pressure. Above all, the loss of the Eastern Province has dealt a devastating blow to the Tigers.

With the fear of a massive military onslaught in the Wanni looming large, the cornered Tigers seem to have opted for, so to speak, preemptive strikes. Earlier they targeted the Katunayake airbase but in vain. Their aim was to destroy the fighter jets that wreak havoc on their bases in the North. Their desperation knows no bounds.

Thus, the LTTE raid on the Anuradhapura Airbase yesterday came as no surprise. For the first time in six months, they took out their light aircraft and managed to destroy some aircraft on the ground. But, given the fact that Prabhakaran deployed the best of his combatants for the offensive, his objective may have been to overrun the camp and hold it at least for a few hours so as to gain the maximum possible publicity. If the number of the Tiger combatants who posed for a picture, which the LTTE released to the media within a few hours of the offensive is any indication, then almost all of them perished in the attack on the ground. The military said it had recovered twenty bodies of LTTE combatants by yesterday morning. However, whether those pictures were a red herring to cover up the true identities of the combatants who took part in the attack remains to be seen. If those pictures are genuine, then a logical conclusion will be that the LTTE released them after it was confirmed that all its fighters had been killed.

Although the LTTE may flaunt the destruction of the SLAF aircraft as a success, it has all the trappings of a pyrrhic victory. Flying machines are something that can be replaced without much difficulty albeit at a cost. True, the lives of security forces personnel including those of pilots are precious and their loss is a big blow to the military. But, the military is not faced with a manpower shortage unlike the LTTE, which is heavily dependent on forcibly recruited men, women and children to sustain its war effort. The military can recruit troops and train pilots with relative ease. The loss of suicide cadres whom Prabhakaran doesn't expend so easily is irreparable to the LTTE, which is believed to have not more than 4,000 battle-hardened cadres to defend the Wanni. It cannot absorb casualties unlike in the past when it had little or no difficulty in recruiting.

But, nothing is going to stop Prabhakaran at this stage. Being encircled in the Wanni with an effective naval blockade preventing arms from coming in, the army ready to move in and the Air Force unleashing hell from heavens, is a frightening proposition for him. If his defences crumble, unable to face the military juggernaut, he knows he is done for.

The LTTE is very likely to target the military bases around the Wanni, from which attacks are launched against it. If the military gets lulled into a sense of complacency, the LTTE will find its task easier. Yesterday's attack is being blamed on unpreparedness on the part of the Anuradhapura air base. A mega motoring event on the eve of the attack in Anuradhapura, where tens of thousands of people thronged has also come in for criticism as mass gatherings facilitate the movement of LTTE cadres and smuggling of arms and explosives.

What Prabhakaran needs desperately at this juncture is a spectacular victory which is devastating enough to offset the government's military gains including the capture of Thoppigala so that the anti-government political forces will get a boost besides the morale of his cadres. He has made several attempts in the North to achieve that objective. He unsuccessfully tried to make a foray into Jaffna a few months ago. The only way he can think of turning the tables on President Mahinda Rajapaksa is to land him in the political soup by providing his enemies with propaganda fodder. The Anuradhapura attack has given an impetus to the Opposition campaign against the government but it needs much more steam to sustain its momentum.

Interestingly, the LTTE seems to be wary of 'long-haul' flights these days. Is it because of the military's newly acquired air defence capabilities in Colombo? Or, is it because the LTTE is finding it difficult to engage in 'long distance' flying due to a shortage of fuel and spares?

Now that the LTTE is in the attack mode to ward off the threats it faces in the Wanni, Prabhakaran will go the whole hog, as is his wont, to break free from pressure and put the military on the defensive. Although the government claims the LTTE is contemplating UDI early next year, Prabhakaran might even opt for talks, if he manages to score a spectacular victory in a bid to win back the much needed international sympathy. But, as it is the LTTE which stands to gain from a low intensity war, it is doubtful whether the military will allow it to relax and plan its offensives.

The fallout of the Anuradhapura attacks might even trigger the much dreaded war for the Wanni.

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