That jumbo U-turn: Some
questions
Island Editorial
Courtesy The Island 26-09-2007
The UNP has made a stunning U-turn on its commitment to a federal
solution. It has announced its position that the 13th Amendment will
be a remedy, if improved upon. If the UNP spurns federalism, in so
doing, it will be reneging on the so-called Oslo Declaration, which
envisaged a federal solution with both the UNP-led UNF government
and the LTTE agreeing. That agreement is now as dead as a dodo since
both the LTTE and the UNP have pulled out in all but name.
The UNP is all out to remove the roadblocks on its path in a bid to
capture power. At the last presidential election, UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe
failed to carry the southern electorate with him because he was identified
as an advocate of federalism. If the UNP is to win back the people who
voted overwhelmingly for President Mahinda Rajapaksa, it will have to
play the same game as the SLFP.
It is also possible that as the LTTE is on a very bad wicket, mired
in a deep crisis, the UNP has lost interest in federalism. The elephants
may have thought why they, too, should sink with the Tigers.
Dislodging the government is a task that the UNP cannot accomplish
with the help of the federalist lobby, business magnates and the international
community. For, although they wield influence, they certainly don’t
have enough votes to elect the party of their choice to power. Elections,
the UNP seems to have realised at last, are won on the basis of the
number of votes a party polls rather than its influence and popularity
with the elite.
On the other hand, the JVP has to keep the present government going
not because it loves the SLFP but because it hates UNP more. No amount
of effort by the Mangala-Sripathy duo will, the UNP is aware, help wean
the JVP away from the Rajapaksa government so long as the UNP remains
committed to federalism, which the Rathu Sahodarayas are averse to.
Else, the JVP has no difficulty in seeing eye to eye with the UNP and
joining forces with it on many other issues, especially the high cost
of living. Of late, the UNP propagandists have been floating rumours
of a possible UNP-JVP alliance. Desperate for mustering the JVP’s
support, which is a sine qua non for ousting the government, before
the next Budget, the UNP may have chosen to soften its stand on federalism.
However, it is not obviously desirous of forging a lasting alliance
with the JVP as their economic policies are as different as chalk and
cheese. If any indication is given to that effect, the UNP is going
to lose a large number of votes including those of its longstanding
members who hate the JVP more than anything else. The UNP appears to
be striving to stitch up a coalition with the limited objective of toppling
the government so that it and its allies could part ways after bringing
the government down. But, will the JVP be amenable to such an arrangement?
How is the UNP going to explain its about-turn to the international
community? Ranil is the blue-eyed boy of the foreign powers trying to
force federalism down Sri Lanka’s throat. Blakes, Chilcotts and
Akashis will certainly be utterly disappointed to receive the news of
the UNP’s sudden change of heart. Whom can they now turn to in
their efforts to promote federalism? What a letdown! Or, is it that
the UNP is making this move with the blessings of the international
community on the promise that it will continue to abide by the Oslo
Declaration after kicking the government out, which seems to be the
priority of some foreign powers as well? The UNP ought to make its position
clear on the Oslo Declaration.
It will be interesting to see the reaction of the peace lobby to the
UNP’s policy U-turn. Will some of the peace makers develop heart
attacks, unable to bear the shock? How will they come to terms with
the fact that their hero is no better than ‘Mahinda the hawk’?
The minority parties threw in their lot with Ranil at the last presidential
election because of the UNP’s commitment to federalism. How is
he going to sell the 13th Amendment to the Tamil political parties,
like the TNA, which is demanding nothing less than federalism?
The most important question that the UNP must answer is: In case it
manages to form the next government, how does it propose to revive the
peace process with the LTTE without offering at least a federal solution?
The LTTE, it should be recalled, unilaterally stalled peace talks with
the UNF government by demanding an ISGA. Had the LTTE wanted devolution
under the 13 Amendment, it could have got it way back in 1987, when
it was first offered, without sacrificing so many lives thereafter.
By contemptuously rejecting the Oslo Declaration, the LTTE made its
position clear that it wouldn’t settle for even federalism.
What is the UNP going to do with the LTTE? Will it revert to its appeasement
policy or take on the outfit militarily? The LTTE, which is stewing
in its own juice, might offer a truce under a different political dispensation,
as it is desperate for a breather but it is only wishful thinking that
Prabhakaran will ever agree to the 13th Amendment as a solution.
The UNP will also have to tell the people whether it will re-merge
the North and the East and what it is going to do with the on-going
war effort?
The UNP is said to be cock-a-hoop, having reverted to the 13th Amendment
and sanguine about realising its dream of capturing state power soon.
Of the UNP’s about-turn, UNP MP Ravi Karunanayake has said the
party is repositioning itself. But, the question is whether the UNP
will be able to remarket itself to an electorate which rejected its
offer of bracelets, pay hikes and a plethora of other benefits and chose
to elect Mahinda as they wanted the LTTE dealt with militarily.
Whether the people will also make a U-turn remains to be seen.
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