Operation Killinochchi

Dilrook Kannangara

It as been pointed out in a number of instances that the real casualty of the 24 year old war has been the national economy. To illustrate this point yet again, the following calculation could be performed.

70,000 over 24 years equal to 2,916 a year; some put the start of the war as far back as 1976 in which case the above number drops to 2,258; Premadasa, may be due to his education level, put it as 1972 in which case war deaths a year drops to 2,000 a year.
However, crude death rate (due to natural causes) was much higher than 2,916. Deaths due to natural disasters, accidents and animal attacks during the said period also exceeded that number. Casualties owing to murder, suicide and violence (other than terrorism and subversion) per year also exceeded 2,916.

Look at it another way. Consider all the conflicts in the 20th and 21st centuries including Bosnia-Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Dafur, Vietnam, Korea, Cambodia, Iran-Iraq, Rwanda, and Congo. Comparatively, the Sri Lankan conflict has taken the least number of lives.

However, all Sri Lankans are affected by this conflict. This is mainly due to economic consequences. We all agree that the conflict has taken a significant toll on the economy. Even when the 2002 surrender was ‘holding’, defence expenditure was soaring. If the effect of the conflict on the annual GDP growth rate has been a mere 2.82%, this had the effect of halving the GDP by 2007. In other words, had there not been this war and had its impact on the annual GDP growth rate is put at 2.82%, GDP per capita would be around $2,000 instead of $1,000 today. What a blow?

The striking fact is that most agree the impact of war was much higher than 2.82% a year. Some put it at 5% a year, in which case we would have almost touched the GDP per capita of Malaysia had we not had the war! (5% compounded for 24 years on top of the existing GDP growth rate).

We boasted of the highest SL growth rate in 2006, however, we lag behind India, etc. This leaves us with nothing but shame. To make matters worse, Germany and Britain cut their aid to SL and it is feared that many others including Japan and the US may follow suit citing ‘human rights violations’. True enough it is an absurd allegation, however, the impact of lost aid would hit us hard, especially in the backdrop of rising fuel prices.

If the conflict drags on longer, our economy will die of haemorrhage. Therefore, we got to win the war NOW!

Some feeble minded individuals call for a surrender as a means of protecting the economy; it has been proven that surrender does more damage to the economy than anything else. Had the feasibility of oil exploration been done before 2002, all the oil reserves claimed to be in the SL waters would have been gone to tigers! In fact most strategic investors were reluctant to invest in the country at times of surrender. Best examples are the failed privatisation endeavours (originally thought to attract foreign investors) during Premadasa and Ranil regimes. After such failures, they shared the entity to be privatised among themselves! CTB privatisation and Telecom (additional) privatisation during 2003 attracted no foreign investments. No investor would risk his money in a country surrendered to terrorists.

This leaves us with only one option; an all out war. War is the only means to peace when terrorism threatens to root out the very existence of the civilised society and replace it with barbarianism. Only a war victory can give peace to the parents of children living in the North and East in future; only a complete wipe out of terrorists will ensure that captured Tamil girls (falsely termed ‘virgin killers’) are not ravished into pregnancy in order to carry out suicide attacks. Only a complete annihilation of the terrorists will ensure we have no riots; in fact the worst riot after 1983 occurred in 2002 in Valachchenai amidst the 2002 surrender.

It is pathetic that politics hinders war, especially UNP supporters who do not support the war effort because they lost the last election need to be asked simple questions. Who was the smarter one among Ranil and Lalith Athulathmudali? Would LA ever have agreed to surrender? Why didn’t he even consider it when things were gong very bad?
Because he was educated, intelligent and responsible. He used to emphasise that not even an inch of this land will be given to the terrorists. The most educated defence minister and possibly the most educated MP for the last 24 years fought the war more ferociously than all the other zombies combined at a time when the whole world was against us; when procuring arms was almost impossible, when the army was inexperienced of terrorist warfare and when Mother India stood firmly behind the terrorists. Also at that time a rebellion was brewing up in the South for god knows what.

The way to win the war is to maximise the efficiencies. If only six out of 20 LTTE boats are going to be destroyed (30%), we have lost 70% of the battle. If a fleet of 20 planes cannot destroy 4 Cessnas, the LTTE has beaten us 5 to 1. If a 200,000 strong security forces cannot exterminate the LTTE with a fighting cadre of around 20,000, the terrorists have beaten us 10 to 1. Most humiliating is the defence budget; if our defence budget is 20 times the LTTE budget, we have lost it 20 to 1. If during RW’s premiership, 1,000 were killed on our side and no one in the LTTE camp, we lost it 1000-nil as tigers kept scoring when the government was hiding behind the goal post.

On the other hand, if the scores are like what happened in 1995 August in Weli-Oya, where more than 500 terrorists were killed within a two hours and SLA suffered no casualties, then we are moving towards peace.

The blast in Colombo recently signifies the effects of clamping down on paramilitaries. The bottom line is no-foreign-aid and no-security either. As aid is cut already, the government should concentrate on national security with paramilitary participation in government controlled areas. This is the only way to protect what is left.

Its time Operation Vadamaarachchi 2, rather Operation Killinochchi starts; else we are history. And history will put both Mahinda and Ranil among the likes of King Soththisena, King Mihindu the Fifth and Don Juan Dharmapala.