President Rajapakse’s brinksmanship

Political Watch -Courtesy The Island 27-05-2007

One of the things that became clear over the past several weeks is that an international noose was beginning to tighten around President Rajapakse’s neck. The first country to cut off aid was Germany. This was followed by the United Kingdom the week before last. The reasons for these decisions has been the concerns in those countries about the spate of abductions and killings in Sri Lanka and the refugee situation in the east. Why is the Rajapakse regime in this unenviable situation today?

If we trace back the chain of events that led to the present situation, President Rajapakse came into power in December 2005, in a situation where the country was relatively calm. His campaign managers had established contact with the LTTE and according to Sripathy Sooriyarachchi, they bribed the LTTE to boycott the elections and ensure Rajapakse’s victory on a Sinhala hardline platform. The almost unanimous opinion among political analysts was that the LTTE went out of their way to ensure Rajapakse’s victory because with the new president’s image as a Sinhala hardliner, they would be able to justify their fight for a separate state on the grounds that co-habitation is not possible with a Sinhala hardline government.

After Rajapakse was elected the LTTE soon began stepping up attacks on the Sri Lankan military so as to provoke retaliation and thereby render the cease fire agreement null and void. The LTTE entered into the CFA voluntarily in February 2002 because they knew that world opinion was weighted against terrorist outfits in the wake of the September 11 incidents. But by December 2005, after five years of no progress, the LTTE wanted to commence their war once again. Hence the need to have a Sinhala hardline government in office, which would have enabled them to justify the war to the world.

The LTTE strategy at that time was targeting soldiers in twos and threes, in order to demoralize the Army. When Rajapakse did absolutely nothing about the LTTE’s attacks on small patrols all over the north and east, people actually began to have doubts about his ability to govern. Soldiers were dying everyday and the government was doing nothing but advocating caution and restraint on the military for fear of the ceasefire breaking down. Even when the Army Commander himself was targeted in a suicide attack, the government conducted an airborne sortie on Kilinochchi and stopped at that.

The present phase of the war started in earnest only after the LTTE cut off water at Mavilaru. The war was in effect thrust upon the government. Since then, certain things have happened. The attacks on small army patrols in the north and east have come to a grinding halt. Earlier, the LTTE activists who were allowed into the government controlled areas to do ‘political work’ under the provisions of the CFA, were in large part responsible for the attacks on military patrols.

But LTTE cadres can no longer enter the government held areas and Tigers who stayed back have disappeared. The part of the Jaffna peninsula controlled by the government is now relatively calm. So are the areas under government control in the east thanks to the weeding out of LTTE cadres through abductions and disappearances. Even the LTTE’s ability to carry out ground attacks in Colombo has been significantly weakened because of the abductions. Earlier, the LTTE was able to assassinate whomever they liked almost at will. The intelligence apparatus of the government was decimated during the ceasefire by the attacks carried out in Colombo by the LTTE.

The most salient feature of the LTTE’s campaign of terror in Colombo during the CFA was that they did not target big shots so much as middle level military officers and lower level intelligence operatives. The reason why the government is powerless to stop the abduction and elimination of suspected LTTE cadres in Colombo and its environs is because middle and lower level police and military personnel are eliminating an immediate threat to their own lives. They are not carrying out these abductions for the safety of the big shots or for the benefit of the country, but entirely for their own safety. There is a tacit understanding among the middle and lower sections of the police and military that LTTE suspects have to be got rid of and that’s making detection of the actual culprits very difficult.

If we go back a couple of decades to the JVP insurrection of 1987-89, the armed forces were largely apathetic until August 1989 with only a few military and police officials who were widely perceived within the armed forces to be stooges of the then government going out of their way to combat the JVP terror. But in August 1989, the JVP issued an ultimatum to the armed forces that they should either resign en mass from the services or that their families would be killed. They actually began to carry out their threat by slaughtering several families of military and police personnel. That is what made the armed forces go all out against the JVP.

The nature of the JVP’s terror campaign was such that they lived among the people in the daytime, and killed people under cover of darkness. Since the enemy was unseen, the only way to fight the threat was to follow their example and abduct JVPers under cover of darkness. At that time too, there was a mighty hue and cry about human rights, at the forefront of which was the present president himself, but the armed forces carried on regardless.

At that time, trying to stop what was happening by telling people that Sri Lanka was becoming a pariah state and that foreign governments may cut off aid and impose sanctions on the country would have been futile because people were not worried about foreign aid but how to dodge JVP bullets and bombs. Even though things are not quite at that level of intensity with regard to the LTTE - the LTTE campaign has been much less intense than the two failed JVP insurrections of 1971 and 1987-89 - the same logic applies in this case as well. When the CFA was in force, the LTTE concentrated on killing lower and middle level intelligence operatives and military and police personnel. After Mahinda Rajapakse became president the LTTE once again concentrated on picking off military and police personnel in ones and twos in the north and east. Given the fact that every soldier and policeman serving in the north and east is thus personally endangered by the LTTE, he will go out of his way to ensure that the area he lives and works in has no LTTE presence. This has been happening all over the north and east.

Getting our priorities right

This is not really a culture of impunity as some foreign powers are inclined to characterize it but a survival strategy by small people in the face of terror. If the government tried too hard to stop this, they will face a mutiny. On the other hand, if the terror stops, the disappearances will also stop. Local activists, claim that all those who have disappeared are innocents. This is absolute nonsense. In circumstances where their own lives are at stake, the armed forces will never go after innocents because abducting innocents will leave the terrorist free to attack them. Hence all their energy will be concentrated on removing the real danger.

All terrorist become innocents once they have been got rid of. We heard the story that all those whom the government abducted and killed in 1987-89 were ‘innocents’. If all of them were innocent how is it that the terrorist organization collapsed? It would be quite wonderful if you can make terrorist organizations collapse by killing completely uninvolved people! The same goes for the LTTE.

The government has captured territory from the LTTE and people have been displaced as a result of the fighting. Whenever there is fighting n Sri Lanka, the international community mumbles various platitudes about the need for talks. But they know that the LTTE will never compromise on their demand for a separate state. The American Defense Department’s analysis of the LTTE and the Armed Forces which The Island published excerpts of last month said so explicitly, and even the European Union knows what the LTTE is about, because they listed it as a terrorist organization after the CFA was signed.

Even though they know the reality as well as anyone in Sri Lanka, the international community tends to jump in whenever the government does something to weaken the LTTE. When the government abducts LTTE suspects, the international community knows that these people cannot be innocent Tamils, but they protest on the grounds that even LTTErs are entitled to the due process of law - which is true, but extraordinary situations call for suitable solutions. By any reasonable yardstick, the priority for Sri Lanka, is not protecting human rights but reducing the capacity of the LTTE to carry out attacks. When the government moves to re-establish control over LTTE held areas, the international community protests on the grounds that civilians get displaced due to the fighting. Thus ironically it is the West that helps the LTTE to survive. No one has yet invented a way to fight wars without killing people and causing displacement.

Even though they are banned in the West, the LTTE can still mobilize Western governments to come to their aid and stop the Sri Lankan government from doing anything to dislodge them. When reading the recent House of Commons debate on Sri Lanka, almost every British MP who spoke in that debate stated that he or she had been approached by members of the Tamil community in their electorates complaining about the situation in the north and east. If not for this support from the West, the LTTE would have been easily wiped out. They will never be able to face a no holds barred onslaught like what the JVP had to face in the late 1980s.

Holding the course

Despite the pressure coming from the West, President Mahinda Rajapakse does not seem inclined to bow to the demand to end his camnpaign.. When Germany and Britian decided to cut off aid, Rajapakse defiantly said that Sri Lanka would learn to do without aid. The president has been given no alternative but to play this game of brinksmanship. The question is, what does the West really aim to do by cutting off aid? Here is a third world country that managed to haul itself up from being a poor country to the level of a middle income country despite three decades of war with the world’s most efficient terrorist organization. People talk of the East Asia economic miracle with countries like Malaysia, and Singapore reaching a high level of economic development. Sri Lanka too is an economic miracle of sorts, for having got so far with the LTTE on its back.
In earlier decades when there was no war, children were seen rummaging in garbage bins looking for food and Western pedophiles could have sex with Sri Lankan boys for a chocolate bar or a ballpoint pen. Today, such a situation does not exist in Sri Lanka. Even our terrorists look well fed an sleek. They are better equipped than any other terrorist outfit in the world. These are symbols of progress.

None of the other countries that have done well in Asia have done so with an outfit like the LTTE operating on its soil. Moreover, all the other Asian countries that enjoyed some economic development in the past were dictatorships, whereas Sri Lanka has been a functioning democracy for over seventy five years, since the introduction of universal suffrage in 1931. This is the oldest democracy not just in Asia but In the entire underdeveloped world.

By cutting off aid to Sri Lanka, Germany and Britain are in effect trying to bring a functioning democracy and an Asian success story to its knees in favour of the world’s most ruthless and most sophisticated terrorist organization. On their own, the LTTE can never win. Only the Western powers can ensure their victory by pulling the rug from under the feet of the Sri Lankan government.
In such circumstances, the President of Sri Lanka has little option but to stay his course despite all the pressures emanating from the West. If the West succeeds in bringing Sri Lanka to its knees and the LTTE wins a separate state, he will be able to tell the people, “We tried our best, but we lost.” And the people too, having been defeated conclusively, will accept that defeat. Rajapakse for his part will have to do everything in his capacity to avoid defeat if necessary even by building up close relations with the emerging alternative power blocs such as Russia, Iran, Venezuela and other such countries.

The west is well aware that even though the LTTE does not pose any danger to their countries, the LTTE’s methods are emulated by the Islamic terrorists. Some days ago, CNN showed European secret service images of a terrorist suspect examining his stock of nitrate fertilizer meant to manufacture a huge bomb. This will probably be the last time that we see such images. The Islamic terrorists are definitely going to switch over to LTTE style mini-plane attacks because that has a much better psychological and economic impact than car bombs or even London-style bus bombs.
Ruthless

An LTTE victory will also embolden every terrorist group in the world with the feeling that the establishment can be brought down if they are ruthless enough and intransigent enough. India will the country that suffers the most grievous consequences of an LTTE victory. Tamil Nadu will become another Kashmir for the Indians. Hence even if President Rajapakse loses the battle with the LTTE due to Western and Indian actions, he will be able to enjoy kaalakanni joy at the thought that the West and India also stand to lose if he loses.

In many senses, the challenge that Rajapakse has to face today is nothing compared to what J.R.Jayewardene had to face in the 1980s. At that time, Both the Tamil Nadu government and the Indian Centre were openly supporting the northern terrorist groups with money, weapons and military training. On top of that every Western country was also openly helping the terrorists with carte blanche to all Tamil terrorist groups to raise funds to carry out terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka.

Despite all this, JRJ held his ground.

Unlike in the 1980s, today the entire world is wary of the LTTE and the effect they have in inspiring the Islamic terrorists. The Indian Central government the Tamil Nadu government no longer supports the LTTE. The LTTE also can’t openly collect money in the West for terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka, even though they do so on the sly. Moreover, the LTTE is listed as terrorist organizations in India as well as the West. When Australians were criticizing John Howard’s friendship with the Americans and the American domination of Western polcy, Howard simply told the Australian public “Be careful about what you wish for, it might come true” - by which he meant that if American domination of the world policy ends, that would impact very negatively on Australia and the entire western world because there was no other western country capable of doing what America does. Similarly, to those countries that cut off aid to Sri Lanka because the government was conducting military operations against the LTTE, the government might echo Howard saying, “Be careful about what you wish for. it might come true!”

Ranil on Collision course with Tissa Attanayake

Last week we reported that a rift was emerging between the UNP General Secretary Tissa Attanayake and party leader Ranil Wickremasinghe. This week, it showed every sign of having widened. The week before last, Attanayake had left for Bangalore to attend the Buddha-purnima event organized by the Sri Satya Sai Baba Centre. The event had been attended by Lakshman Seneviratne and Chief Minister Reginald Cooray as well. There had been several distinguished monks such as the Ven Bellanwila Wimalaratana and Ven Ittapane Dhammalankara as well.
The moment Attanayake touched down at Katunayake on Wednesday, he received a call from Malik Samarawickrema saying that there had been ‘false reports’ in The Island and The Nation about a rift between him and the leader and that such things was not good for the party. Attanayake had replied that he had not seen the newspapers and that n any case, he would not be influenced by what appears in the newspapers and that he was not bothered about what was written about him.
Karu Jayasuriya

Immediately afterwards, he received a call from Ranil Wickremasinghe as well asking him to come and see him. Wickremasinghe had asked Tissa about the Buddha-purnima event and wanted to know whether his erstwhile deputy Karu Jayasuriya had also attended. Karu Jayasuriya apparently is a regular visitor to the Satya Sai Baba Centre and events organized by it. The reason why the jittery Wickremasinghe wanted to know whether Karu Jayasuriya was also in Bangalore was because he knew that Attanayake had met Jayasuriya at the Dudley Senanayake commemoration last month and given Jayasuriya a special ‘pirith noola’ which is not worn on the wrist but carried around in the pocket as a kind of good luck charm. Jayasuriya had been very appreciative of the gift. Given the situation in which Attanayake had left for Bangalore the week before last, Wickremasinghe had good cause to worry that if Attanayake had met Jayasuriya in Bangalore, he may have given him something more than just a good luck charm. But Wickremasinghe’s fears on this score were laid to rest when he leant from Attanayake that Jayasuriya had not been in Bangalore.

Attanayake was a person whom Wickremasinghe had to appoint as general Secretary under pressure at the height of the reform movement crisis. By appointing politicians to top posts in the party, Wickremasinghe tried to cool some of the resentment that had built up against him and his coterie of friends within the party. Accordingly, Weragoda was removed and Attanayake appointed as General Secretary. Malik Samarawickrema was asked to resign and Rukman Senanyake was appointed as Chairman. The Treasurer’s post went to Tilak Karunaratne. But this ‘broadbasing’ of the party did not stop the UNP dissidents from joining the government. Now that time has passed and the challenge to his leadership has been diffused, Wickremasinghe has begun a subtle campaign to reassert his control and re-enthrone his coterie of friends. Moves are afoot to create a situation where people like Attanayake would voluntarily vacate their posts, by heaping various deliberate slights on them. Attanayake however is digging his heels in, and dislodging him is not going to be easy for Wickremasinghe.

Through his experience of Wickremasinghe, Atanayake had the foresight to realize that this would happen. Hence he flatly refused to give up his electorate in the Kandy district despite pressure from Wickremasinghe to do so. Technically all office bearers in the UNP do not nurse electorates. When Rukman Senanayake became Chairman, he voluntarily gave up his electorate in the Kegalle district. Tilak Karunaratne does not have an electorate either. Wickremasinghe had told Attanayake that Gamini Atukorale had tried to nurse an electorate while being General Secretary and that he had found it difficult to do so. But Attanayake who knew that Ranil would make him the scapegoat once he lost the next election, flatly refused to give up his electorate on the reasoning that even he ceased to be General Secretary, he world at least have the electorate and the allegiance of the people. Unlike his predecessor Weragoda, who was an ex-public servant, and clueless about politics, Attanayake is a politician who has come up the hard way, and he is proving to have a mind of his own.

The scapegoat

Wickremasinghe’s tendency to foist the blame for his failures on others, was not lost on even those like Attanayake who supported Wickremasinghe during the reformist crisis. The most recent example being the blow up between Vajira Abeywardene and Wickremasinghe in the political affairs committee last month, where Wickrmasinghe had told Vajira that the eighteen dissidents had joined the government because of his (Vajira’s) unnecessarily provocative statements. That would have come as quite a shock to those who supported Wickremasinghe because it was plain to anybody that the eighteen dissidents left because of Wickremasinghe and not Vajira.

At this same meeting, when the appointment of Galle district electoral organizers had been discussed, Vajira had opposed the scheme to appoint co-organisers for some electorates and Wickremasinghe had told Vajira that he was going to ensure that the UNP loses Galle, to which Vajira shot back that if Galle has been losing, a good part of the blame rests with Wickremasinghe - a clear reference to Wickremasinghe’s lack of public appeal. Thereafter Wickremasinghe had left the meeting and then the argument had continued between Malik and Vajira, with Vajira accusing Malik of wanting to run the UNP according to his whims. It was after this major fracas that Wickremasinghe took Vajira to China to assuage his feelings. After eating the eighteen course Chinese meals and visiting the Panda reserve, Wickremasinghe returned looking plump and happy, but the photographs that were sent back to Colombo shows Vajira in sunglasses looking stiff and uncommunicative. The China trip has not succeeded in cooling the rift between Vajira and Ranil and especially the rift between Vajira and Malik. Wickremasighe had tried to organize meetings between Vajira and Malik to iron out differences, to no avail.

The president was on a tour of the Middle East last week, so there was little activity on the government front. When Chandana Kathriarchchi the SLFP organizer for Kesbewa was brought to the High Court to face murder charges, there were a large number of PA Ministers and MPs present including Arjuna Ranatunga. All these people had turned up to give Kathriarchchi morale support. Ironically the first witness to give evidence against Kathriarchchi was Gamini Lokuge, the former UNP strongman in Kesbewa, who is now a minister in the PA government. Those who had come to courts to give morale support to the accused, ended up chatting amiably with the chief witness of the prosecution as well.

When the Parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) met last week, JVP MP Anura Dissanayake, Ravi Karunanayake and others had insisted that Mihin Air and the Arms procurement body chaired by Gotabhaya Rajapakse also should be summoned before COPE. The latter body was to be questioned about the MIG-29 deal. Justice Minister Dilan Perera however, said that if a public enterprise is to be summoned before COPE, there should be an Auditor General’s report first and that since these bodies were formed only recently, such a report would be unavailable.
A discussion had then ensued on what organizations could be summoned before COPE. It was pointed out by Minister Perera that Sri Lankan Airlines had been summoned before COPE during the UNP government but the then Chairman of the airline Daya pelpola had come to COPE and said that since the majority of the shares was not owned by the government, COPE had no authority to look into its affairs. It was decided that Sri Lankan Airlines would be summoned before COPE next week and thereafter, the committee would take a final decision about summoning Mihin Air and The Defense Ministry arms procurement body.