Air raids, Raja Yoga, regime changes and dogfights

Courtesy The Island 29-03-2007

Whatever success that the LTTE has achieved over the years is not due to its much flaunted military prowess. It has been wrongly credited with pioneering suicide bombing, which, some observers mistakenly believe, is its most potent weapon. True, its military capability cannot be underestimated. But, what has helped it graduate from a ragtag army to a formidable guerrilla outfit and survive successive governments is its ability to effect regime changes and thereby gain breathers from time to time.

In 1994, it prepared the ground for a regime change through an assassination campaign which accounted for several prominent leaders including President Premadasa. The People’s Alliance (PA) formed the government in that year and the then Prime Minister Chandrika Kumaratunga had a cakewalk at the Presidential election without a strong contender from the UNP.

She stood the politico-military strategy of the state on its head. Her government had a blind plunge into a peace process, which ended in disaster. Then, she, to her credit, took back Jaffna, but the LTTE consolidated its power in the East, from which President D. B. Wijetunge had banished the outfit. Chandrika, whose election Prabhakaran had facilitated, proved to be much tougher than he had thought. However, towards the end of her first term, things began to fall apart and the LTTE scored a string of impressive military victories. Then, Prabhakran felt the need for legitimising his military gains through a peace process and attempted another regime change. He tried to assassinate President Kumaratunga in 1999 on the eve of the Presidential Election. Although he failed to eliminate her physically and bring about a regime change immediately, the damage he had been consistently inflicting on her government militarily finally led to the creation of grave politico-economic conditions, which the UNF exploited to the fullest, to capture power in Parliament in 2001.

That regime change couldn’t have come at a better time for the LTTE. The 9/11 attacks had jolted the world powers into declaring war on global terror and the LTTE was desperate for a breather, which it got from the UNF government. A de facto line of control came into being and the LTTE enjoyed unbridled freedom to smuggle in arms and infiltrate the northern peninsula and the city. Forty-foot containers full of undeclared goods were allowed into the LTTE-held areas and the SLAF choppers were placed at the disposal of LTTE leaders, who went abroad umpteen times to co-ordinate fundraising and arms procurement operations on the pretext of attending peace talks. The conflict got internationalised as never before with the Norwegians supportive of the LTTE having a permanent presence in the country, thanks to the peace process.

President Kumaratunga, who was being subjected to humiliation and harassment by the UNF, finally sacked the UNF government and regained control of Parliament at the 2004 General Election. Then, she had to retire earlier than expected due to a constitutional Duckworth-Lewis and a presidential election was called. There Prabhakran blundered. Karuna having broken away and combatants’ morale sagging for want of action, Prabhakran needed war on a limited scale. He knew that no amount of effort was going to help him resume war, if UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, the darling of the international community, became President, as he would take all provocations lying down.

Today, having suffered a string of humiliating defeats at President Rajapakse’s hands, Prabhakaran obviously regrets having avoided an attempt at a regime change in 2005, as evident from his determined effort to engineer the latter’s downfall. Monday’s attack on the Katunayake airbase would have been politically disastrous for President Rajapakse had the LTTE achieved its objective. The UNP is already demanding his resignation over the failed attack. How serious would the situation have been, if the LTTE had managed to wipe out the entire fleet of SLAF fighter jets? The LTTE would have had a field day in the North like in the late 1990s and 2000: The Opposition would have run riot!

What the LTTE is implementing at present is its Plan B. Its original plan was to cut the Jaffna peninsula off by destroying the Trincomalee harbour with artillery, stopping the naval movements between Trinco and KKS with a spate of attacks on the Navy vessels and preventing air cargo by destroying the Palali airstrip with shelling. The Initial plan went awry as the military read the situation correctly and resorted to preemptive action, which either neutralised the LTTE gun positions or caused them to be translocated. Had the LTTE’s plan succeeded, the Rajapakse government would have been in deep trouble in time for April, when some of his political rivals claim their Raja Yoga (ascendancy indicated in their horoscopes) will take effect. Trouble is not yet over for President Rajapakse though. The LTTE is likely to go all out to make life miserable for him.

It is unfortunate that some Opposition politicians are trying to cash in on the present threat to national security. President Rajapaske, no doubt, must take the full responsibility for the airbase attack but those who call for his and the Defence Secretary’s resignation over the incident must tell us whether any heads rolled when the Kolonnawa Oil Installations were attacked (1995), the Mullativu camp was overrun (1996), the Central Bank was bombed (1996), the Dalada Maligawa was bombed in (1998), the Elephant Pass camp fell (2000) and the Airport was devastated together with several aircraft (2001). UNP MP Lakshman Kiriella who has, on behalf of the UNP, called for the resignation of the President and the Defence Secretary was in the PA government, when the aforesaid incidents occurred. Why didn’t he ask the then President Chandrika Kumaratunga and her Defence Secretary to resign?

Those who are playing politics with the airbase attack should be asked whether President Bush resigned over the 9/11 attacks.

What the Opposition is trying to do to the Rajapakses is not our concern. But, this is not the time for political leaders to fish in troubled waters. The country’s war against terror has reached a critical juncture and it is the time for unity among the democratic politicians. A political dogfight will only help Prabhakran achieve his goal.