CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

The givernment vs the LTTE. Is this war winnable?

Mario Perera Kadawata

The government and the armed forces appear to be experiencing a common elation preconizing the defeat pf the LTTE in 2008.Such declarations have proceeded from various governmental and military sources. We know that the government and its allies (the JVP and the JHU) are hell bent on defeating the LTTE militarily. First victory then negociations is the current slogan.

The voters are afraid of ushering in a new UNP government, being of the opinion that the UNP would neglect the war while pressing for a political solution.A great segment of the population is traumatized by the fact that the LTTE could be let off the hook if the war is called off. Among religious groups, the Catholic Church insists on a peaceful solution.This was the Christmas message of the catholic bishops. This was the special message transmitted by archbishop Malcolm Ranjit when interviewed by Sirasa.

The famous package which the government has been promising ever since it assumed office has not yet seen the light of day. Its publication is being postponed continuously.There are two matters to be considered. Is the war winnable on the military front? My straight forward answer is that the 'conventional war' could eventually weaken the LTTE. However what would such a victory result in? Militarily it would bring more and more LTTE bunkers under army control.

Would it lead to a better administrative hold of the conquered areas? Let us not forget that such conquered areas in the north are almost entirely occupied by Tamils. This being the situation my answer to the second question is 'no'. Why so? Because conventional military victories over the LTTE resulting in the occupation of their bunkers cannot weaken their guerilla capabilities. Remember that the Indian army occuiped space in the north parctically to saturation point, but still lef themselves open to guerilla attacks, to suicidal missions and to sniper fire. The LTTE posseses suicide squads that could blast themselves at will. Their targets need not necessarily be the military. Their target could be political and economic.

Just think of the recent assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the resultant chaos.It is therefore my view that conventional military successes and occupation of bunkers will not favvourably affect the admnistrative structures of the north. The LTTE could render that impossible with its guerilla and suicidal attacks. Winning bunkers could mean winning battles but certainly not winning the war.The government and its allies want to win the war first and negociate afterwards.the UNP and those who think similarly want to negociate first and arrive at peaceful solutions with the consensus of the LTTE. Bishop Malcolm Ranjith stressed the fratricidal nature of the war which we all agree upon. He also mentioned that the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka includes both sinhalese and tamils among the faithful. Buddhism does not possess such an advantage.

The learned archbishop insisted on the duty of the government to get the LTTE to the negociating table.We know however that insistance on this idea is like beating a dead horse. The LTTE is shunning the issue to keep a hold on its power base.The government is shunning the issue of divulging its power sharing package for the very same reason.Keeping the war going is its guarantee of being in power, in addition to other considerations such as reaping financial harvests for those in power.As such the situation is deadlocked.

On one side the war is not politically winnable as the goverment will not be able to acquire administrative power over Tamil populated areas.On the other hand no package is being handed out for fear of losing political power over the country.The propaganda of military successes has a mesmerizing effect on the majority of the population. Now considering the repetitive insistance of the Catholic Church on the need for a negociated solution and being aware that no deal is being advanced, would it not seem logical that the Catholic church, who has adminstrators and followers on both sies of the ethnic divide, comeout with a package of its own? It claims to feel the pulse on both sides which would make it very sensitive to the aspirations of people in both camps.It may well be that such a deal might prima facie be rejected by the warring factions.

Yet it is a healthy beginning seeing the neither the LTTE nor the government is keen on showing their hand. Someone with sincere interest in stopping the war, as is the Catholic Church could well take responsability for such an initiative. Now why limit this to the Catholic church? There certainly are members of the Buddhist clergy and religious dignitaries of other denominations similarly motivated. What prevents them from joining together with a view to present a political package with enhanced knowledge they possess of the matter in question? The time is come to wrest this initiative both from the government and from the LTTE. The Catholic chruch considering its privileged situation could well take the lead. That probably is what Jesus Christ might seem to expect from them; "blessed are the peace makers", he said, "for they will inherit the kingdom".

Disclaimer: The comments contained within this website are personal reflection only and do not necessarily reflect the views of the LankaWeb. LankaWeb.com offers the contents of this website without charge, but does not necessarily endorse the views and opinions expressed within. Neither the LankaWeb nor the individual authors of any material on this Web site accept responsibility for any loss or damage, however caused (including through negligence), which you may directly or indirectly suffer arising out of your use of or reliance on information contained on or accessed through this Web site.
All views and opinions presented in this article are solely those of the surfer and do not necessarily represent those of LankaWeb.com. .

BACK TO LATEST NEWS

DISCLAIMER