CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

Survival Odds for JVP

herold leelawardena

Most people are inclined to believe that the current rift in the JVP is a fight for supremacy by Somawansa and Weerawansa. This could be true for we do not see an ideological difference between the two. What I want to emphasize is; they both believe in grabbing power by revolution. Their commemorating of the JVP failed insurgency effort of 1971, year after year is the best proof for this.

Though the target is the same, what the pair has a different strategy to achieve it. We could perceive this from what these two have been saying and doing of late. Though they do not say it in exact words, Weerawansa faction wants the JVP to join Rajapakse government, influence it, get recognition where possible, and squish more MPs in at coming elections. They want to goon and on like that until such time the JVP could gobble up SLFP and grab power. Come to think of it, that is how the JVP had made up to what they are now. Even ex-President Kumaratunga talks these days as if the JVP duped her in to an alliance when she was in control of the SLFP.

For Somawansa and his cohorts in the JVP, the Weerawansa strategy seems to be an anathema. Somawansa faction appears to be in a haste to snatch power. In their hallucination to grab power, they appear to think that they could influence the outcome of a coming parliamentary election. They seemed to be quite positive that the people that voted their thirty nine MPs will again vote for them. Thinking on that line the JVP seems to be in need of an early election. They want to defeat Rajapakse government, contest it alone and get more MPs in. Or is it that they want to trounce the SLFP and pave the way for Wickramasinghe's UNP to form a government; and wait for Wickramasinghe to brew up a political environment that is suitable enough for their final putsch soon. When one think about Wickramasinghe's track record and the outlook such a scenario is not that unrealistic.

Remember; when he was prime minister, he had declared that this country is already divided. He also said, in order to unite that divided country, he had to sign a 'peace' treaty with LTTE. But, what was the actual result of that so-called 'peace' treaty? The LTTE got a free hand and our forces stayed put in their barracks. LTTE started killing their opponents and army informants but our forces could do nothing. But no NGO had staged any protests. Instead the Defense Minister, Thilak Marapona said; spies are of no use in peace time. So, for LTTE to coordinate such killings effectively, Wickramasinghe had allowed the Norwegians to grant them money and a massive broadcasting station. Not just that, while LTTE was allowed arms shipments, our forces were ordered to curtail expenditure. Had Wickramasinghe been in power for few more years, LTTE would have legitimized some kind of a self-rule in the North & East. Come to think of it further, something morally wrong also started to materialize at that time. The rich were becoming richer and the poor poorer. Hatred against the rich was on the rise. Fundamentalist Christian Evangelists were speeding up erecting their churches in every nook and cranny of this country. Wickramasinghe government blessed the evangelists a free hand to proselytize the Buddhists by bribes. When Buddhists protested dirty tactics of the Christian evangelists, they were castigated as racist and bigots. And the Wickramasinghe government backed infamous NGOs had set up protest marches against Buddhists. We can go on and on; but let us say one thing; those were the days that brought about great upheavals to our village hamlets. In 2004, the JVP somehow put their act together and manipulated Kumaratunga to sack the Wickramasinghe government. SLFPers were so grateful for that act; they voted all JVP nominees to the top of the list in most districts.
So, those who could visualize Wickramasinghe's mindset and recollect the consequence of his rule during 2001-2004, would indeed expect doom and gloom if he is to rule again.

Nevertheless, we wonder how the JVP or Somawansa faction could ask for the remote control once again for they have made it redundant without making use of it. The reality is getting further from their small heads. They have forgotten that they couldn't gain a single Pradeshia Saba other than the one they already have just two years back. They do not appreciate that those voters that voted thirty nine MPs are primarily SLFP backers. They are dumb to see that JVP will have to contest under SLFP alliance if they are to get any of those votes at any election. They do not foresee that they are facing a total defeat at Eastern Province elections. When the JVP get a couple of MPs elected at the next general election only, they will realize their true voter base. By then though, it will be too late to rectify omissions and commissions of the JVP, for the beginning of the end of the JVP has already begun.

Anyway, Wickramasinghe will undoubtedly capitalize all the tactics by Somawansa faction to his advantage to come to power. The green blooded UNPers naively believe Wickramasinghe is patriot like Premadasa and Senanayaka. Only Wickramasinghe the opportunists, the hangers on and his buddies know he is neither and he will make it a heyday for infamous NGOs, immoral Christian evangelists and vile enemies of Sinhala Buddhists. But those that live in the real world know Wickramasinghe coming to power is only a pipe dream.

Getting back to the subject matter, for the time being, it looks as if Weerawansa has 11 MPs and Somawansa the rest of the JVP MPs. Whatever the numbers, the conflict will inevitably ends up in splitting the JVP in to two. The reasons for the split are now well known to the public at large. Whether there are some other reasons or not, the two factions are unmistakably at loggerheads to the point of no return. The split may not rip JVP cadres evenly for Somawansa is in control of the party apparatus. Still for all, Weerawansa is backed by eleven MPs for the time being. Whether the Weerawansa and his eleven MPs will be fully fledged members of the government or not, they will no doubt offer an unconditional support to the government. The formal reason will be to finish the LTTE for good. And the government will direct the forces to do the job regardless the cost. The patriots would love it.

All these means; there will be no elections for two more years. That also means; Weerawansa faction is safe and will certainly be getting full patronage of the government for the next two years. So, Weerawansa faction will definitely form a new party. The new party will not contest the coming elections on its own but have piggy back ride on the SLFP. The new party will be more successful than the JVP for they will be tapping the SLFP voter base as before. How successful will they be we shall have to wait and see. Knowing the gift of the gab of Weerawansa how good he is in playing the patriotic card, I would place my bets two to one all the way.

Unlike the new party, the reduced JVP is set to persist with an ideological struggle. JVP will have no pity from anyone in the government. Instead the JVP leader and hierarchies will have to face many allegations thrown at them by various parties. At last week, interview by Chumuditha at Max television program named fourth floor, Mahinda Ratnathilake directed a scathing attack at the JVP and its hierarchy. It gave a good sign of things to come for Ratnathilake would not have done so without the blessing of the government. If Lalkantha think brewing up trade union agitation will shield JVP from such finger pointing, he is sadly mistaken.

With the onslaught directed by Weerawansa faction together with many anti JVPers Somawansa and his party hierarchy will have to spend more than fulltime to defend a variety of accusations. So, they are well advised to read through not just Karl Marx's writing but Machiavelli's as well.

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