CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

The Reducing Relevance of India in the Region

Dilrook Kannangara

Anti-Sri Lankan politicians again visited India desperately trying to protect the LTTE from sure defeat. However their repeated beggary has gone unheard. India that rushed into Sri Lanka in 1987 uninvited is not so willing to interfere this time. The rise and fall of India is directly linked to the Cold War. During the Cold War India intimidated all its neighbours as they were not so close to a superpower as India was. The Soviet Union heaped upon India all its weapon systems at ridiculously low cost. Although India records the highest sustained economic growth rate today and although its military is enhancing its capabilities, China has made faster strides in defence. It is very interesting to analyse how China stumps India; it has strategic implications on Sri Lanka that can determine the future prosperity, survival or otherwise of this nation caught up between two giants. Proximity has become irrelevant in the modern world due to advances in technology. The conflict between the world's largest democracy and the world's largest non-democracy is nothing less than spectacular. But they are careful not to be violent. Instead a non-confrontational yet mildly aggressive approach is taken by both parties. China uses a number of strategies to keep India under check.

Isolating India

India and China enjoy strong economic ties and there is no animosity in the air. However, the dream of remaining the sole Asian super power and the counter dream of sharing that position by the two countries has resulted in a very serious arms race between the two nations. China has cleverly exploited the hatred harboured by all the neighbours of India towards it. From Pakistan to Indonesia all the neighbours of India have already teamed up with China except Lanka. Lanka has been slow to embrace the change that has engulfed the whole region. Last month India test fired a nuclear capable missile that can reach Beijing. Within days Pakistan test fired a missile carrying nuclear warheads capable of hitting any Indian city in the mainland.

China allows no room for India to become the sixth UN Security Council permanent member.

However, India is partnering with Israel, etc. in order to balance the losing faith among its neighbours.

Maritime power

Although it is almost impossible for India to have a navel presence around China, the opposite is quite different. With the commissioning of the Hambantota port and the navel base, China will have a permanent presence in a strategic location that can monitor, neutralise and keep under check all Indian navel movements. The severity of India's concerns about Chinese navel involvement in Lanka was displayed in 2008 when Lanka had to drop a Hong Kong based company from taking up a development project at the Colombo port. Both India and China have invested heavily in maritime power. India has bought Russian IL38 long range surveillance planes and in the process of getting its first aircraft carrier from Russia. These will strengthen India's maritime capabilities. However, due to the secrecy of Chinese operations, the relative advantages (if any) India gets is yet to be seen.

Each tries to enhance its access to and prospects in maritime trade. From Sethusamudram to Chinese investments in commercial shipping in the region provide ample evidence of this strategy.

1962 and thereafter

In 1962 China grabbed a large chunk of territory from India in their war. Since then China has laid claims to Arunachel Pradesh, Kashmir, etc. which India considers its own. The Tibetan affair also intimidated India. In response India tries to move into its weaker neighbours like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and Maldives amidst resistance from their masses. China is strategically positioned from all directions to siege India if required. Both countries have enhanced their aerial power as a possible deterrent against open attacks.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union India has retracted its military operations that were in full swing in the 1970s and 1980s.

Defence links with Russia

This is the most important factor that can decide the ultimate winner with the largest weapons arsenal. India using its long standing links with Russia stuffs its weapons arsenal on one hand and on the other bars Russian weapon sales to China. A very large number of tanks, planes and other Russian equipments are manufactured in India and latest Russian weapons are first sold to India. This has given it a huge competitive advantage over China.

However, owing to increased defence links with the West, relations between India and Russia has taken a slow but steady downward trend. An increasing volume of Russian weapons are exported to Pakistan. The dirt cheap prices India used to enjoy for Russian weapons is history now. Disputes are mounting between the two nations on price, allegiance and technology sharing. Better economic prospects offered by China is a major factor in this regard. After a long lapse Russia has sold Mi-17 military transport helicopters to China which has made a massive impact on defence ties between the two countries. All indications point towards reducing Russo-Indian defence links and a surge in Russo-Sino military links.

India can never forge closer ties as it had with Russia in the past with Israel or the United States. This is because India's social and demographic structure and it's importance to the US. India is less important to the US economically but India depends much heavily on the US for vital dollars. Also its position on nuclear weapons, continuing conflicts with neighbours, serious internal rifts, housing the second largest Muslim population in the world, strong anti-American sentiments that are still ripe in parts of India and unresolved land disputes put the West in an uncomfortable position. Therefore India can never have equal status as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Israel, Saudi Arabia or Taiwan has with the West.

On the other hand a Russian-Chinese defence pact will go a very long way in sustaining each others' defence capabilities while remaining relevant in the new global superpower balance.

India's internal conflicts have external sponsors

Although India preaches about conflict resolution to Sri Lanka from time to time, it has its share of internal conflicts. Its eastern states are affected by Maoist guerrillas while Islamic terror groups are active in the west roughly corresponding to the financiers of each group. The innumerable ethnic and racial groups, their persistent clashes for resources, increasing gap between the haves and the have-nots, the large and restive Muslim population, external agitation for regional independence and high population density intensify India's woes.

The contest between the two has vital ramifications for Sri Lanka. Both India and China would love to have their presence here. However, it can be done only with the consent of the majority and using a terrorist group to get a foothold on Lanka is counter productive and not lasting. This gives Sri Lanka plenty of options. It can seek military assistance from either China or India, or both or from any neighbouring country or from all these sources. China has been our most valuable defence supplier in terms of price, lead time, quality and relevance. But recently Lanka has depended on Pakistan and India for more purchases than from China. This may be a deliberate attempt to please India as it would be less irked if Lanka shops in Pakistan than in China for weapons. However, should India try to intervene in Sri Lanka uninvited, Lanka must team up with China taking a lead from its neighbours. It is good foreign relations management on the part of the Lankan government to ward-off India interference. Those political jokers begging India to save the tigers must take note of these realities. India has no invitation to interfere in Lanka as the government has not even considered such an involvement. It is safer and prudent for India to mind its own business than open up another can of worms in the region which will result in losing its only neighbourhood friend. What Sri Lanka wants from India is help in exterminating the LTTE. All official communication is made only through diplomatic channels and beggary of individual politicians has no place in bilateral relations.

If the LTTE wants India to intervene and save it that is not Sri Lanka's concern. It should not be India's concern either if it is keen in keeping its only regional friend.

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