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STEWART BELL WRITING FROM VAVUNIYA SAYS MANY IN SRI LANKA NOW BELIEVE THAT VICTORY IS IMMINENT FOR SECURITY FORCESBy Walter JayawardhanaStarting a six part series on the military situation in Sri lanka Torontos National Post writer Stewart Bell in a story filed from war torn Vavuniya says that most of the people in Sri Lanka have started believing in a military victory for Sri Lankan security forces against the Tamil Tigers by recapturing the only surviving Tamil Tiger strong hold of the island. Bell wrote: many in Sri Lanka are talking about victory, possibly by the end of the year. The government forces have been steadily advancing into rebel-held territory, capturing one town after the next, and are now only a few kilometres from the guerrilla stronghold of Kilinochchi. The government has granted the National Post to enter the frontline areas and Bell has interviewed many leaders including the President , Defense secretary and Tamil leaders in the six part series. Stewart Bell said, for 25 years the country known as Ceylon during British colonial times has been consumed by the conflict. The Sri Lankan armed forces are fighting to keep the country united, and well-armed guerrillas are fighting for independence for the country's ethnic Tamil minority, he said in the first of the six part series. The following is the full text of part one of the series: .Hundreds of thousands have fled Sri Lanka's civil war, many of them to Canada. While the war zone has been off-limits to journalists, the National Post's Stewart Bell recently toured the front lines just as the conflict appears headed for a decisive showdown. His six-part series begins today in wartorn Vavuniya. The hotel windows pounded in unison when the shock wave from the artillery gun hit. The windows seemed ready to implode. But in the dingy restaurant at the Nelly Star Hotel, the waiter just smiled and continued serving ginger beer and plates of spicy chicken and rice. No problem, he shrugged, it was only the Sri Lankan Army base down the road, firing its big guns into the jungles inhabited by Tamil Tigers guerrillas. Then the rebels hit back. At just after 3 a.m., gunfire erupted and rebel shells started raining in, whooshing as they descended before exploding on impact. An air raid siren whined and red gunfire spat into the sky. A spotlight scanned the dark, looking for the two Tamil Tigers aircraft that were overhead dropping bombs. The city lost power. Troops closed the roads and went on patrol. The fighting was still raging at daybreak. This civil war is supposed to be almost over; the government says its victory over the Tamil Tigers is imminent. That may be, but clearly not yet. ---- Sri Lanka is a country of misty tea estates, noisy commercial strips, serene Buddhist landmarks and palm-lined beaches that can make you forget the island's tragic storyline. For 25 years the country known as Ceylon during British colonial times has been consumed by civil war. The Sri Lankan armed forces are fighting to keep the country united, and well-armed guerrillas are fighting for independence for the country's ethnic Tamil minority. The northern province where the civil war is mostly being fought is officially off limits to the press. Military checkpoints have sealed the region from the south and entry is prohibited without government permission. But earlier this month, the National Post was able to enter the north for an exclusive tour of the frontline areas. Armed with a flak jacket and a letter from the Ministry of Defence, the Post travelled through the war-torn northern districts of Mannar, Vavuniya, Jaffna and the eastern Wanni. A reporter travelled unescorted, except in parts of Jaffna that the military deemed too dangerous for foreigners. A request to visit the rebel capital Kilinochchi was denied. The newspaper also interviewed the country's most powerful figures, including the president and defence secretary, as well as leading Tamil politicians, former high-ranking Tamil Tigers guerrillas, human rights campaigners, soldiers and civilians. This is an "island of blood," as the Indian journalist Anita Pratap called it. The Tamil Tigers control the northern Wanni region, and periodically venture south to the capital Colombo to bomb buses and assassinate politicians. The government uses artillery, air strikes and ground forces to weaken the rebels. More than 60,000 people have died. Attempts at peacemaking have come and gone. Hundreds of thousands have fled the country, many to Canada, which is now home to the world's largest Tamil diaspora - as well as an illicit terrorist financing network that the RCMP says has raised millions to arm the Tamil Tigers. The Conservatives responded by banning both the Tamil Tigers and, in July, a Toronto-based non-profit group called the World Tamil Movement. It was the first time Canada had used the powers of the Anti-Terrorism Act against a non-profit group. Canada is one of the Tamil Tigers' "biggest resource pools in terms of fundraising, in terms of propaganda," Sri Lanka's Foreign Secretary, Palitha Kohona, said during a recent visit to Toronto. "And they have also begun to influence lawmakers." But all of a sudden, many in Sri Lanka are talking about victory, possibly by the end of the year. The government forces have been steadily advancing into rebel-held territory, capturing one town after the next, and are now only a few kilometres from the guerrilla stronghold of Kilinochchi. Critics complain the government has failed to protect civilians in the war zone, trampled human rights and lacks a political solution to the country's ethnic divide. But riding a wave of popularity, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has pushed on and confidently predicts the Tamil Tigers are near collapse. That may be wishful thinking but the Sri Lankan forces have made significant territorial gains. In two years, they have pushed the Tigers out of the country's east and into a shrinking pocket in the north. Rebel bases have been captured and destroyed, and key commanders killed in air strikes. The government claims to have killed more than 6,000 rebels so far this year, while losing some 600 of its own troops. Expectations are high. "Total victory imminent for security forces," read a recent headline in the Daily News. "If the terrorists are kept under similar pressure, I don't think they will last even a year," Lieutenant-General Sarath Fonseka, the Army Commander, said in an interview. "We have gotten stronger and stronger, they have gotten weaker and weaker." ---- A roadblock five hours north of Colombo separates southern Sri Lanka from its northern war zone. Past the city of Anuradhapura, armed police divert traffic into a compound of buildings made of sticks and mud. Cars are directed to park over a trench into which a police officer descends to look under the vehicles for weapons and contraband. Truck drivers are required to unload their cargo, only to reload it after inspection. Papers are checked. Bags are searched. Questions are asked. Those allowed to proceed north get a green pass, which they must hand to the police guarding the checkpoint. The A-9 road that heads north is crowded with soldiers - on foot, on bicycles, riding double on motorbikes and in Unicorn armored vehicles. Just before Vavuniya, a billboard wishes the troops success in their fight against terrorism. Vavuniya is home to a mix of Tamils and Sinhalese, some of whom have fled the fighting to the north. A statue on the downtown commercial strip depicts a stout general holding a Sri Lankan flag. This is a garrison town, its most prominent feature the Security Forces Headquarters-Wanni, military base surrounded by razor wire, bunkers and gun nests. There is also a radar installation, which is what the Tamil Tigers were trying to knock out when they attacked Vavuniya early on the morning of September 9. At 3:05 a.m. members of the Black Tigers suicide squad attacked from the ground, trying to fight their way into the base. At the same time, the rebels fired artillery guns positioned north of here at Puliyankulam. A muffled boom in the distance signaled that another artillery round was on its way, its arrival announced by an eerie whistle as the shells descended and exploded. Then two light aircraft, part of the guerrillas' makeshift air force, flew in from the north and dropped bombs on the camp. The Sri Lankan Air Force scrambled two Chinese-made F-7 fighter jets for the first-ever dogfight of the civil war. The fighting came in waves. The artillery guns pounded and heavy machine guns fired in long bursts but then all went quiet, until it erupted again. At one point the gunfire was so intense the air turned thick with foul-smelling smoke. At dawn, two Sri Lankan soldiers walked cautiously in front of the hotel, their rifles pointed in the air. A black cow followed them. Men wearing sarongs and white shirts emerged from their homes and stood at the road's edge, trying to find out what was happening. More troops appeared, walking single file, their faces tense. Except for the odd bicycle, there were no civilians on the streets. The downtown shops remained shuttered all day. Near the military base, blackened craters pierced the dry mud where wayward Tamil Tigers shells had landed without causing any significant damage. With the fighting mostly over by 6:30 a.m., the propaganda war began. The rebels called the operation a success and claimed to have destroyed a radar installation, communications tower, anti-aircraft defences and ammunition dump, and said the two planes had returned safely. The Sri Lankan military said the attack had been "completely foiled" and that one of the Tigers' planes had been shot down. Eleven Tamil Tigers were reportedly killed, six men and five women. Photos of sprawled bodies were posted on the Sri Lankan military website. The military said it had seized their weapons: a multi-purpose machine gun, two rocket-propelled grenade launchers, one 40mm grenade launcher, six T-56 riffles, 27 hand grenades, four radios, three suicide jackets, 32 pistol rounds, a GPS. Thirteen Sri Lankan soldiers also died and 18 were wounded, while a police constable was also killed and eight others injured along with five Air Force personnel, the military said. "They were firing a lot of artillery into the area so we have some casualties due to artillery fire," Lt.-Gen. Fonseka said in an interview later at Army Headquarters in Colombo. In the grand scheme of the war, it was no more than a nuisance attack, but after so many losses, the Tamil Tigers leader Velupillai Prabhakaran needed to do something to keep the rebel dream alive, he said. "All the attacks with these aircraft gave been basically desperately trying to achieve something, to show the outsiders and the Tamil diaspora that he is still capable of achieving some results," the general said. "But I think anyone can do this type of thing if you are willing to sacrifice 10 of your men. "He is very desperate." Hours later, Sri Lankan fighter jets bombed the north and lawmakers in Colombo voted 99-11 to extend the country's state of emergency until October. Another month of war was on the horizon.
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