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Even if Chandrika and Ranil run for the Chief Minister posts
UNP want win the forthcoming NCP and SAB: Provincial Councils

Dr. Sudath Gunasekara. President Senior Citizens Movement Mahanuwara

25.6.2008

I am one person who never approved or will never approve the Province as a suitable administrative division or the Provincial Council as a unit of devolution of political power for this country because firstly, it creates more problems in our body politics than it resolves and secondly, it constitutes the biggest criminal drain out and wastage of the meager national resources of the country in order to maintain a network of superfluous institutions. Following the establishment of the Districts as independent units of administration by Administrative District Act of 1955 the province has become defunct as an administrative unit. Therefore any attempt to re-introduce the Province as an administrative unit or a unit of devolution of political power in my view is anachronistic.

In the present context it does only two good things; they are consolidating power structure of political parties in the periphery and bestowing enormous power and privileges to the holders of political and other positions at the provincial level for their own betterment, of cause at the cost of the general public totaling over Rs. 5000 m annually. The tragedy is it does not bring any good for the country or the people.

Nevertheless, the news that the UNP has decided to field Janaka Perera and Upulsantha Sannasgala for the NCP and Sabaragamuwa respectively as candidates for the posts of Chief Minister in the forthcoming provincial elections prompted me to write these few lines. The first and most important thing this news reveals is the present bankruptcy of the UNP. The inability of the UNP to select two insiders for these two posts and the nomination of two outsiders, completely new to politics, who have never been in the party fold, proves this bankruptcy. This situation might prompt the people to wonder as to how the UNP could be considered as the alternative to the incumbent government to hand over the responsibility of governing the whole country at a critical time of our history like the present.

It has been said that Upulsanta Sannasgala by now has rejected this offer. If that is true then obviously that is a wise move by him. Apparently he has escaped the trap, in which he was going to get entrapped. Since I also personally know him I am happy over his decision. In the same manner I hope wisdom would dawn upon Janaka Perera as well before long. Because since he is a man who had won a name in the battle field people of this country naturally would not like to see that he is defamed by defeat.

Any one contesting an election wants to win. But under the prevailing political situation in this country none of these two can win it. Besides even if Chandrika and Ranil vie for these positions I don't think even they can win it. Because, politics is entirely a new game different from all others. It is also dirtier than all other games. These aspirants should understand that there is a vast difference between war in the battle field and teaching in the class room on the one hand and politics on the other. People in this country do not vote for efficiency, education, qualifications, past good work or character of a person. They go mainly by the party and all other factors are secondary. I make this statement based on my own experience.

In this country people vote for the party to which traditionally they have been brainwashed. Their nationality and the religion are one with the party. What is more is under the existing proportional representation system the individual candidate has no place. People just vote any scare craw nominated by the party. The one who can spend the biggest amount of money, the thug and the one who has a big mouth collects more preferences and gets elected while the intelligent, honest and educated people often get rejected. Enough examples could be drawn from past elections. For example during the last parliamentary elections in the Kandy district, when Sarath Amunugama an eminent and famous public servant got only 78,917 and another famous and clever lawyer Wijaya Wickramaratna polled only 15,000, two new comers almost unknown in the district before, for any significant achievement, polled almost 112,000 and 81,036 respectively. This is how the voter in this country behaves. Under this situation it is very unlikely that people will line up in thousands to caste their vote for Janaka Perera or Upulsanta Sannasgala.

My conclusion on the forthcoming election is based on the following facts.

1. 2004 Provincial Council Election results

Look at the differences. In the NCP the UPA has polled 135,344 more than the UNP while in Sabaragamuwa it has polled 263,499 more votes. It is true that the UPA contested as a coalition with the JVP at that election. However due to the present crisis in the JVP no substantial reduction in the UPA votes could be expected by the fact that the JVP is going on its own at this election.

As a result of the prevailing confusion and disarray within the UNP, nomination of outsiders for the posts of CM, loss of interest on the part of local UNP MPP of the respective Provincial Councils arising from this decision, people changing sides for political gains, the impact of the Democratic group of the UNP and also the overall decrease of popularity of both the UNP and the SLMC, a substantial number of their votes could be expected to cross over to the UPA. Therefore the victory of the UPA is guaranteed firstly, as there is no possibility of a decrease in the votes polled by the UPA at the last election and secondly, there is a possibility of an increase in the number of UPA votes arising from the new trends taking place in voter behavior pattern due to above reasons. It is important to note that the CWC which contested independently last time in Ratnapura also contesting under the UPA symbol this time.

2. Prevailing popularity of the President among the people.

This is another factor that will boost the number of votes the UPA would poll. Majority of people approve the policies the President has been pursuing since he got elected. His is particularly attractive to the rural masses. The policy followed by his government in the north and the east war against the LTTE takes pride of place among them. Local programmes like Gmaneguma and his quick reaction to people's problems has made him popular. At the same time he has elevated the image of our country, at least in the hearts of our own people by not giving in to international pressure. He has done very well both at the UN and the Commonwealth Summit meeting. He also has been able to contain the LTTE both at home and internationally, better than any one else before. Also unlike Ranil, he has his roots firmly established here at home. He understands the language of the people, he practices their religion, he eats their food, and he wares their dress. He also can directly talk to the hearts of the people. He is a man, unlike most other leaders, who has even given his own son to defend the nation. A modest and unpretentious villager as he is, he loves his motherland and the nation. Masses know this. For these reasons between Rajapaksa and Ranil definitely the people's choice has fallen on Rajapaksa. This is exactly what happened even at the last Presidential Election where the entire westernized battalion of vested interests was supporting Ranil. What is more is people know that he is the Executive President of this country and voting his party at this time will definitely be a passport to get their villages developed. Also they know that these provincial elections are not going to bring about a change in government either and as such they have to get things done from his government at least till the next general election is held. This situation also enhances the chances of the UPA.

3. The internal crisis of the UNP

As I see it today the UNP is undergoing the worst crisis after 1956. Today it is almost leaderless. The present UNP is a rackety sinking ship that is caught in a huge storm on high seas. Majority in the party do not accept Ranil's leadership. Almost all the best brains in the party have left and today they are with the government. Even people like Jayalath Jayawardhana, Johnston Fernando, Jayawickrama Perera, and Luxman Senaviratna who were one time his faithful followers and supporters are now revolting. They also want a change of leadership. Those who are left behind have neither a strong electoral base nor a popular image in the country. No one should be surprised even if some of them also revolt and cross over in the near future. Usually the rats leave a sinking ship. Under these circumstances who can expect the people to vote such a party which is unable to find even two suitable men for the two Chief Minister posts. Majority of UNPers might opt not to go to the polling station to vote this time due to this chaotic situation. That also strengthens the position of the UPA. Why the UNP that had towering leaders like DS, JR and Premadasa has fallen to this pathetic level? Isn't it the weak leadership?

As a man Ranil is definitely a good man. But he is not a man whose feet are rooted at home. He does not listen to others. Also he does not tolerate his opponents. He is surrounded by a small group of Colombo centered cunning elites and a set of third grade political lackeys from the outskirts who have no future. To this extend he lives in his own world, a paradise of 'political fools'.

He also does not understand the common mans mind. Nor does he know their real needs either. Also he does not know to speak to them in a language they understand. He goes on repeating words like Paramadhipattya, Prajatantravadaya, Madya nidahsa and Manawa ayitivasikam like a parrot at public meetings where most of the participants do not understand what he says. He plays rubans; press horns of others vehicles and even pastes posters on walls. His feet are often in other countries than here and on his foreign sojourns he ridicules his own county and its people. When there is a crisis at home, either in the country or his own party, like Chandrika, he goes at least to India for few days. He does not know that the votes are with those who wear the surrong and the redda and neither with the people who adorn the western garb or the foreigners whom he is trying to woe and appease on his foreign tours.

I quote here an interesting incident in this regard. In 2001 he visited my own village Meemure and there when he addressed a small gathering he was repeating the words Paramadhipattya, Prajatantravadaya, Madya nidahsa and Manawa ayitivasikam like a parrot. What on earth is the meaning for speaking to people of a remote village like Meemure in that language where none of theme knows the meaning of these words? Doesn't it exhibit his ignorance of the local idiom? When you recollect how people like DS and Premadasa addressed the people in different parts of the country to suite each ones taste in abundant variety, isn't this behavior really funny.

As I see it Ranil is the most unsuccessful leader the UNP ever had. It may be that he also has got the influence of Grahayas of Anura Bandaranaike who happen to be his classmate at the Royal College. None of them have perhaps bathed in a village stream or spent a night in a village hut even by an accident. The way how things are going, I have a strong feeling that before long the UNP might be left only with the UNP party constitution, the very document that provided shelter for Ranil up to now. The henduwa might also be snatched off from him one of these days when he is sleeping. What has happened to the UNP is a national calamity and a tragedy as well. Because, the country needs a strong opposition party, that is vital for the smooth functioning of a by-party democratic process. When I think of this tragedy and the future of the UNP, it reminds me of the following verse in Subhashitaya, which we learn in the Vth STD in school.

Kalala gilunu matawaranindu goda ganutha
Tumula balati gijindaku misa an kevata

(Who else, other than an equally strong jumbo could rescue another giant elephant that is bogged in a big pit of mud?)

Definitely, as I see it, that "mighty and powerful elephant" who can rescue the huge UNP elephant presently struggling to come out of this huge political mud pit is not found in Ranil.

Finally, before I wind up, I would like to draw your attention to one more point. Because some of you who read this may not get convinced on what I am trying to say and might even think that this is only some anti UNP propaganda that has no substance. But for those who tend to think in that manner, first of all I would like to tell them that I am not averse to UNP or any political party as such. I am only forecasting the natural outcome that will emerge, based on past results and the actual ground situation. Regarding the validity of what I forecast I invite you to read the following excerpts from two articles published in the Island and Divayina in September 2005, where I correctly predicted the victory of Mahinda Rajapaksa, that is two months before the Presidential elections.

It was captioned Presidential Elections 2005: new trends and issues emerging from the forthcoming Elections. Now I reproduce the five points I set out at the beginning of that article.

a) Polarizing of all the patriotic and national forces for the first time, as never seen before in recent history, vouched to protect their land of birth around one nucleus, that is Mahinda Rajapaksa, This I consider to be the most important and crucial change that was taking place in the Sri Lankan polity during the pre-election period.

b) Polarizing of all the anti-Sinhala, anti- Buddhist forces, both at home and abroad
around the U.N.P and Ranil Wickramasingha against the emerging Sinhala
Buddhist unity.

c) Shift of minority political lobbying power (king making power as they call it) that was hitherto tyrannically used by the communalist extremist minority groups to the utter disadvantage of the majority, in to the hands of the patriotic Sinhalese sub-groups and consequently the extremist minority groups ending up in eternal political wilderness.

d) Shift of Colombo based center of the so-called national political power that was hitherto the monopoly of the denationalized westernized comprador type of urban elite to the village

e) Ultimate emergence of patriotic forces over unpatriotic elements in the political field; victory of Suras over Asuras in modern Sri Lankan context with the election of Mahinda Rajapaksa as the President.

I made these statements at a time when no one knew what is going to happen in the days to follow. The political climate in the country was so uncertain and confusing that every one was on pins. Although the PA had nominated Mahinda Rajapaksa as the official candidate of the party by Chandrika under public pressure, every one knew that Chandrika was openly supporting the opposition candidate. Therefore Ranil Wickramasingha supported by all the unpatriotic groups and anti Sinhala elements, most people thought will just walk in as the new President on the 17th of November with the support of the minorities.

Most people thought Rajapaksa was going to be a second Kobbekaduwa. But looking at the emerging patriotic sentiments led particularly by the Jatika Vimukti Peramuna and the Jatika Hela Urumaya and also other patriotic forces that were brewing in the countryside where the majority of votes lie and the changes taking place in the intellectual circles, I was fully convinced that this is definitely going to be a second 1956. As such, as for me I did not have any doubt about the outcome of the elections. I was thoroughly convinced that Mahinda would be the next President even by one vote

Didn't this come true? No one would have thought then what I said was going to happen. But no one contest now that indeed it has happened. In the same way I am more than convinced that this time too, the UPA will sweep the Provincial Council Elections, definitely with a bigger majority than last time and before long, either before or after the elections, Ranil will be definitely replaced by some one who is fit to take the leadership of that once great party and of cause one who loves his own country than foreign lands..

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